North west regional discussion

[severe snowstorm]

Looks like the deep cold is still being held back at 7+ days on the ECM. This is a long way off still so much could still change, for better or worse.

[Spurry]

13 hours ago, SP1986 said:

You mean November to November

No , the rain is slightly warmer from April - October 

[Deep Snow please]

4 hours ago, Dexter said:

Looks like the deep cold is still being held back at 7+ days on the ECM. This is a long way off still so much could still change, for better or worse.

GFS has it in for D6 now.

[Snowmusic]

Wat hung and waiting with bated breath! Away this week where it’s v warm. Hoping to come back to deep freeze!!! 

[Snowmusic]

Watching and waiting sorry!!

[Snow free zone]

Well for my neck of the woods an Easterly is about as mush use as some of the tepid NW blasts we've already had this winter.  I'd expect nothing more than clear dry days with cold frosty nights - any convection fizzling out over the pennines and any fronts pushing up from the s/se stalling as usual over the merseyside/gtr manchester area. 

The met office seem fairly sure some kind of continental flow will develop looking at their long range output, will be interesting to see how this develops.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[alr1970]

I'll believe it when I see it. I just had a look back at my Flickr and Facebook photo streams from March 2013, the last great easterly according to those on the model thread. what did I find?

Nothing, nada, zilch. So I expect the same this time around.

[Deep Snow please]

59 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Well for my neck of the woods an Easterly is about as mush use as some of the tepid NW blasts we've already had this winter.  I'd expect nothing more than clear dry days with cold frosty nights - any convection fizzling out over the pennines and any fronts pushing up from the s/se stalling as usual over the merseyside/gtr manchester area. 

The met office seem fairly sure some kind of continental flow will develop looking at their long range output, will be interesting to see how this develops.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems odd to be sat this side of the fence. I remember 2013 but hugely underwhelming for my area - yes we had some snowfall but it was measured in cms not feet and inches and I was living on the east coast (in sunny Tyne and Wear). I think it flew south of us for the real cold and snow, as Yorkshire seemed to do okay. 

[karyo]

To be honest, if the Pennines get a good covering of snow it will do me just fine. I just want to see those -15c uppers covering our region. It would be nice to see some cold temperature records drop for a change.

However, in reality most cold spells get watered down in the end.

[Deep Snow please]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

To be honest, if the Pennines get a good covering of snow it will do me just fine. I just want to see those -15c uppers covering our region. It would be nice to see some cold temperature records drop for a change.

However, in reality most cold spells get watered down in the end.

Don't get me wrong I like the cold, but there's something so much nice about snow. My ideal realistic is a situation like 2010 was Tyne and Wear, heavy snowfalls giving a good depth which then freezes over and the snowfields enable temperature records to tumble. There's just something beautiful about a winter wonderland that stays for days on end or freezes over and the icicles, I remember snapping one off about 18 inches long one day. 

My ideal fantastical is waking up one morning to discover the only route out of my house is the upstairs window due to a super blizzard the night before that's completely unexpected, but that's not going to happen so I'll settle for the above.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Don't get me wrong I like the cold, but there's something so much nice about snow. My ideal realistic is a situation like 2010 was Tyne and Wear, heavy snowfalls giving a good depth which then freezes over and the snowfields enable temperature records to tumble. There's just something beautiful about a winter wonderland that stays for days on end or freezes over and the icicles, I remember snapping one off about 18 inches long one day. 

My ideal fantastical is waking up one morning to discover the only route out of my house is the upstairs window due to a super blizzard the night before that's completely unexpected, but that's not going to happen so I'll settle for the above.

hahaha I know what you mean and 2010 was great here too. When you live in more rural areas lasting snow has a decent possibility to occur but here in Manchester it disappears before you know it. That's why snow on the Pennines is important to me as it takes no more than 15 minutes to get there.

I hope the easterly materialises and then thanks to the major SSW we continue to see northern blocking and further wintry outbreaks through March. 

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

hahaha I know what you mean and 2010 was great here too. When you live in more rural areas lasting snow has a decent possibility to occur but here in Manchester it disappears before you know it. That's why snow on the Pennines is important to me as it takes no more than 15 minutes to get there.

I hope the easterly materialises and then thanks to the major SSW we continue to see northern blocking and further wintry outbreaks through March. 

2010 was an easterly wasn't it?  Off to buy a snow shovel...

In all seriousness it was more NE'ly so not really like what's being forecast short term anyway. 

[chris78]

21 minutes ago, karyo said:

hahaha I know what you mean and 2010 was great here too. When you live in more rural areas lasting snow has a decent possibility to occur but here in Manchester it disappears before you know it. That's why snow on the Pennines is important to me as it takes no more than 15 minutes to get there.

I hope the easterly materialises and then thanks to the major SSW we continue to see northern blocking and further wintry outbreaks through March. 

I am 100% with you on 2010, in lots of ways its spolied my enjoyment of winter model watching,  i like snow, but only if its a least a couple of inches deep and lasts a couple of days, for me the only route to that is get severe cold in first.   Id rather see extreme cold maximums in the models than snow, if we get both great, but cold trumps snow for me, even dry cold.    Give me a week of ice days with no snow over that crap we have just had, with wet transient snow any day.

After 2010, I said I may not see the likes again in my lifetime, I still think that's possible, but a few of the runs recently have come close,  I dont think we will get a 2010 repeat....but it is not totally out of the question and thats good enough for me.

Edited February 19, 2018 by chris78

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

2010 was an easterly wasn't it?  Off to buy a snow shovel...

In all seriousness it was more NE'ly so not really like what's being forecast short term anyway. 

I think Nov/Dec 2010 had a juicy easterly and then a stonking northerly. I think a straight easterly is better for this region than a northeasterly but to be honest i will take cold no matter where it comes from. haha

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, chris78 said:

I am 100% with you on 2010, in lots of ways its spolied my enjoyment of winter model watching,  i like snow, but only if its a least a couple of inches deep and lasts a couple of days, for me the only route to that is get severe cold in first.   Id rather see extreme cold maximums in the models than snow, if we get both great, but cold trumps snow for me, even dry cold.    Give me a week of ice days with no snow over that crap we have just had, with wet transient snow any day.

After 2010 I said I may not seem the likes again in my lifetime, I still think thats possible, but a few of the runs recently have come close,  I dont think we will get a 2010 repeat....but it is not totally out of the question and thats good enough for me.

What you say makes sesne to me in terms of deep cold and ice days. I think this spell cannot be as good as 2010 in terms of cold because we are very late in the season and the sun has too much strength now. I will of course be glad to get the cold no matter how late it is. I absolutely hate a mild spring! lol

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, karyo said:

I think Nov/Dec 2010 had a juicy easterly and then a stonking northerly. I think a straight easterly is better for this region than a northeasterly but to be honest i will take cold no matter where it comes from. haha

I was discussing Jan 2010 primarily, Nov 2010 was very good as well but not as good as Jan 2010 for memory as I was a bit too close to the coast. (which somehow was in my favour in January with shower placement) both we're around a foot of snow though. An incredible year the likes of which I haven't seen since.

 

 

[chris78]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

What you say makes sesne to me in terms of deep cold and ice days. I think this spell cannot be as good as 2010 in terms of cold because we are very late in the season and the sun has too much strength now. I will of course be glad to get the cold no matter how late it is. I absolutely hate a mild spring! lol

Dont mind a warm spring if its a gradual warm and smoothly moves into summer,  I hate a stop start spring, with a warm up followed by some nasty late frosts.....but thats the gardener talking.  

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, chris78 said:

Dont mind a warm spring if its a gradual warm and smoothly moves into summer,  I hate a stop start spring, with a warm up followed by some nasty late frosts.....but thats the gardener talking.  

Bleeding heck? What's the gardener going to think of this if it comes off? You're looking at April before you can plant some stuff that should be in early March.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I was discussing Jan 2010 primarily, Nov 2010 was very good as well but not as good as Jan 2010 for memory as I was a bit too close to the coast. (which somehow was in my favour in January with shower placement) both we're around a foot of snow though. An incredible year the likes of which I haven't seen since.

 

 

Oh yes, Jan 2010 was brilliant. I remember i came back from Amsterdam to an ice day in Manchester. The ground in the park was rock solid and there were some hard patces of snow here and there. Then the snow showers came from the Irish sea followed by more organised snow. Even the city centre was at a standstill and the snow didn't melt for quite a while. 

[chris78]

5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Bleeding heck? What's the gardener going to think of this if it comes off? You're looking at April before you can plant some stuff that should be in early March.

Indeed,  I would  have much preferred this (if there is a this!) in Dec or Jan, but if its going to be as epic as some of the charts suggest, Im happy. 

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, chris78 said:

Indeed,  I would  have much preferred this (if there is a this!) in Dec or Jan, but if its going to be as epic as some of the charts suggest, Im happy. 

If it comes off, I'm sure there's a fair few people who are going to be incredibly caught out and lose a fair few plants or vegetables. Feel more for the farmers though, going to be the worst possible time - saw a video of the 2013 cold spells effect on Northern Ireland the other day and you could see grown men old enough to have lived through the troubles almost breaking down at the loss of their livelihoods. As much as we love snow, it's important to remember a lot of people will be breathing a sigh of relief if it doesn't come off.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[SP1986]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

If it comes off, I'm sure there's a fair few people who are going to be incredibly caught out and lose a fair few plants or vegetables. Feel more for the farmers though, going to be the worst possible time - saw a video of the 2013 cold spells effect on Northern Ireland the other day and you could see grown men old enough to have lived through the troubles almost breaking down at the loss of their livelihoods. As much as we love snow, it's important to remember a lot of people will be breathing a sigh of relief if it doesn't come off.

 

Indeed Im a gardener and on one side I'm concerned as lots of the stuff I grow is subtropical but on the other side I'm like bring it on.. the more severe the better. 

I started preparing for this last week though by taking cuttings and bringing in some plants. 

I grow Citrus here so now I feel like the Citrus growers in Florida who had to deal with similar conditions a month ago.

As a gardener too I'll say now that people exaggerate the effects of cold on gardens.. vegetables and hardy plants will have absolutely no problems with the cold coming.. it's simply not going to be cold enough to bother your Rhododendrons, Fatsia etc. Winter vegetables are extremely hardy taking down to -30C without I'll effect. Even Daffodils and snowdrops will keep flowering happily without damage to -10C

I know nursery owners who lost an incredible amount of stock in 2010 and it hit them hard.. even put one out of business so it's not always all glittery fairy stuff but that's life too.

Edited February 19, 2018 by SP1986

[karyo]

Very cold 12z runs so far. for next week!

[dodge]

The first prospects of north sea streamers are showing up on the charts for next week (still eye candy at the moment) and I must admit I'll be getting slightly jealous of those eastern folk if they come off.  They won't be getting slushy deposits like we did with our heavily moderated polar maritime incursions this winter.... oh well at least it 'WON'T' be mild in our region so North West weather forecasters will be forecasting with a grimace next week.

[chris78]

32 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Indeed Im a gardener and on one side I'm concerned as lots of the stuff I grow is subtropical but on the other side I'm like bring it on.. the more severe the better. 

I started preparing for this last week though by taking cuttings and bringing in some plants. 

I grow Citrus here so now I feel like the Citrus growers in Florida who had to deal with similar conditions a month ago.

As a gardener too I'll say now that people exaggerate the effects of cold on gardens.. vegetables and hardy plants will have absolutely no problems with the cold coming.. it's simply not going to be cold enough to bother your Rhododendrons, Fatsia etc. Winter vegetables are extremely hardy taking down to -30C without I'll effect. Even Daffodils and snowdrops will keep flowering happily without damage to -10C

I know nursery owners who lost an incredible amount of stock in 2010 and it hit them hard.. even put one out of business so it's not always all glittery fairy stuff but that's life too.

Indeed as a gardener with exotic tastes, you'll know its not so much the cold as the wet cold that tends to kill plants, and this looks like being a fairly dry cold spell (although ground is obviously pretty wet)  

An interesting effect of 2010 was daffodils not flowering or flowering very late....yet tulips did fine, a bit of research and I discovered it wasnt the extreme cold that had caused this but a mild autumn, daffs will start to grow roots in the autumn when it starts to cool, they will then more or less shut down when it goes very cold and start again in Spring, in 2010, there was no autumn cool down, it went from mild autumn to freezing winter, hence no time for daffs to root.   I found it interesting that as crazy cold as the winter had been, it was a mild autumn as much as the cold winter that did for the daffs. 

 

(sorry non gardeners)