Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[bluearmy]

An axis on the 850 hpa wind to cheer @Steve Murr

[Mucka]

Boom

[ICE COLD]

And it's cracking at 216hrs ??

[Mike Poole]

ECM following on from the morning run and looking great at 216

Beaten to it!

But I think there's now a good chance that this is the evolution that is going to verify - interesting times!

Edited February 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good consistency from the ECM so far lets hope its consistently right!

Early energy separation re UK low and upstream trough is what we want to see which the ECM delivers, no nerve shredding drama.

Lets hope the ECM is calling this correctly.

I like the way you say, hope the ECM, Nick. You must obviously have in the back of your mind, that bloody garden path model...

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

I like the way you say, hope the ECM, Nick. You must obviously have in the back of your mind, that bloody garden path model...

The GFS is a nerve shredder and the UKMO doesn't look as good as the ECM at T144hrs so we need a few more runs.

The ECM does though have a better grip on any strat influence so for the timebeing and given the SSW  perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt.

If you get to T168hrs with the clearance between UK low and upstream trough with the ridge in between then its game on.

[ICE COLD]

Boom boom ? 

Edited February 9, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Ice Day]

And then we move on to the 240.......wowzer!!!!  

 

I suspect this will be a mild outlier!!!

[Snowy L]

Now thats a chart that realizes winds will be 25m/s easterly at our lattitude in 5 days time.

[ICE COLD]

Get in there great start to the weekend . Lovely set of 12z runs . Are leave you with this bad boy ?

[karlos1983]

Beautiful end to the ECM

That’ll please @Catacol  no end. He probably couldn’t have drawn a better chart at face value. Enough energy dropping Down from the North West to create some potentially snowy weather! Nice!

Edited February 9, 2018 by karlos1983

[bobbydog]

boom!

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is a nerve shredder and the UKMO doesn't look as good as the ECM at T144hrs so we need a few more runs.

The ECM does though have a better grip on any strat influence so for the timebeing and given the SSW  perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt.

If you get to T168hrs with the clearance between UK low and upstream trough with the ridge in between then its game on.

With the SSW not really currently set to set in until, Sunday? Are we not just musing over output "thinking" the models have picked up on it rather than what they will show when the actual effects do come into play? I have a feeling this is currently the case. Are models that "good" at preempting such a warming? 

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is a nerve shredder and the UKMO doesn't look as good as the ECM at T144hrs so we need a few more runs.

The ECM does though have a better grip on any strat influence so for the timebeing and given the SSW  perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt.

If you get to T168hrs with the clearance between UK low and upstream trough with the ridge in between then its game on.

GFS is steadily moving toward ECM, ensembles are improving, UKMO looks great to me, JMA backs ECM, GEM thereabouts...

What could possibly go wrong Nick?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Mucka

[WalsallWeather123]

Deep cold setting in at 240 hours as per ECM

[chionomaniac]

So we are making headway at last with both timeframe and suggested evolution. I must admit earlier on in the week I thought we were never going to get there.

So to recap the first stage of suggested post SSW developments is the Scandi block. Now we are seeing strong indications that this is likely to occur with the seeds being set from day 6. The next stage will be the retrogression of the block west depending upon how the residual daughter vortex over NA is affected by the second phase warming. After that the we could be rocking and rolling between the Scandi and Iceland/Greenland blocks until the vortex recovers.

I hope that everyone can see why @Catacol and I were so excited last week. Still a lot of water to run under the bridge but we are on course...

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Boom boom ? 

Also this is 48hrs away so pretty much nailed to be on.

Edited February 9, 2018 by booferking

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Blimey. I do hope it happens. As there are more 'booms' in here than in an average UK Eurovision Song Contest entry!

Don't worry, nothing could possibly go wrong with a day 10 ECM easterly 

PS. I'm joking before 'coldmentum' come after me 

 

[Ice Day]

Sorry about my bit of silliness, i don't know what came over me.  Anyway, the wonderful thing about this set up is that *IF* the ECM verified anything like shown on the 12z, we could be locked into a several week long cold spell with plenty of snow options from east, north and possibly west.  This should be good; this could be great; and maybe just maybe even epic.

Anyway, that's enough ramping from me, I shall return expectantly for the pub run.

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So we are making headway at last with both timeframe and suggested evolution. I must admit earlier on in the week I thought we were never going to get there.

So to recap the first stage of suggested post SSW developments is the Scandi block. Now we are seeing strong indications that this is likely to occur with the seeds being set from day 6. The next stage will be the retrogression of the block west depending upon how the residual daughter vortex over NA is affected by the second phase warming. After that the we could be rocking and rolling between the Scandi and Iceland/Greenland blocks until the vortex recovers.

I hope that everyone can see why @Catacol and I were so excited last week. Still a lot of water to run under the bridge but we are on course...

Hi can I ask what is the  timing of the  ssw is it Sunday now?

[Nick L]

Can we please stay on topic? I know folks are excited but don't ruin the thread. One liners, gifs and random "booms" are not the kind of posts we want in here.

And a message to those attempting to troll this thread: We've got your cards marked and you won't last long in here if you carry on.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Nick L

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

Hi can I ask what is the  timing of the  ssw is it Sunday now?

Sunday around 1300 hrs GMT last time I looked

 

Oh and to follow on from Nick's post above the MOD bouncers have already removed one person from the MOD tonight. Don't be the next!

Edited February 9, 2018 by chionomaniac

[chris55]

13 minutes ago, ptow said:

That’s the 25th of feb. There were  charts like that 2 days ago for the 23rd and 4 days ago for the 21st. Even then the real cold is a 1000 miles away 

I see a pattern here. 

Summer is coming 

There is standard FI and then there is SSW FI.

If you have watched the models since 2005 then you will know the difference. 

That being said, nothing is guaranteed in the world of weather forecasting, but events up top really do count for something at the moment as we progress through late winter into early spring.

Give it 5 years and you'll get it.  

[kold weather]

Great models thus far,with the caveat that there is still plenty that could scupper things and it *may* take several bites of the cherry to get the big deep cold in. I await the 12z ECM ensembles to see just how many go with a full fledged cold spell, alot did on the 00z but still a sizeable number had too much energy in the northern arm of the jet.

[Mike Poole]

So, where are we now?

Let's consider probabilities, I think the original position, stated by someone from the Met Office was that a SSW would lead to UK cold 2/3 times - 66%.  Add on to that that it's a big split SSW not a displacement, maybe put that up to 75%?  Now that the models will have reasonable representation of the state of the tropospheric conditions at the time of the SSW, surely the 12 z's push this up to maybe 85%, particularly the ECM.  

Finally a look at the GEFS

Chart shows probability of surface pressure >1030 mbar - Safe to say. It's pretty much all to the north of the UK at T+324.