Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[karlos1983]

GEFS starting to smell the coffee

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Finally the GFS ensembles are getting more emphatically behind the ssw driven cold spell.

Can't post it but T360 GEFS ensembles has a 1035(ONE THOUSAND AND THIRTY-FIVE)MB MEAN high over Scandinavia. There is no other word for that but BOOM!!! 

[wightwootton]

The BBC is smelling the coffee also ( or Meteo!! )

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173

Edited February 9, 2018 by wightwootton

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Can't post it but T360 GEFS ensembles has a 1035(ONE THOUSAND AND THIRTY-FIVE)MB MEAN high over Scandinavia. There is no other word for that but BOOM!!! 

Impressive..Boom indeed

[lassie23]

lot's of coffee smelling going on in here have the models settled down yet, or are they still flip flopping from run to run?

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Can't post it but T360 GEFS ensembles has a 1035(ONE THOUSAND AND THIRTY-FIVE)MB MEAN high over Scandinavia. There is no other word for that but BOOM!!! 

That’s pretty staggering! Very high agreement in GEFS fairly unprecedented to have such a strong signal for height rises to the north east so far out. 

[snowblind]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

lot's of coffee smelling going on in here have the models settled down yet, or are they still flip flopping from run to run?

I guess we'll find out in the morning.

[That ECM]

One of the gefs is sending subliminal messages to all coldies nearly time to lose the ? From the title of the thread

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by That ECM

[Chesil View]

Just now, That ECM said:

Control at t240 and then the run gets really good!! And look at the mean @Man With Beard posted as you mentioned about the mean.

The control is indeed a stonker of a run.

[bryan629]

18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Can't post it but T360 GEFS ensembles has a 1035(ONE THOUSAND AND THIRTY-FIVE)MB MEAN high over Scandinavia. There is no other word for that but BOOM!!! 

Control whips up a 1055 over scandi around the same time ... 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

One of the gefs is sending subliminal messages to all coldies

I'll send it some back ???????????????..GEFS is definitely smelling the coffee!..Exciting times to be a coldie

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'll send it some back ???????????????..GEFS is definitely smelling the coffee!..Exciting times to be a coldie

With all this coffee, shall I make a pot?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Red being the mean? Hovering mainly around -5 or slightly above? Not really a coffee smelling just not very impressive. As a popular poster said -11, -12 uppers required to maje this event worth while.

That's the mean chevron. the warm runs wont exist if the scandi high verifies so the mean will drop. seriously ??????

[Methuselah]

If the Beast really does materialise, we'll be smelling the coffee that'll be brewing in St Petersburg, Krakow and, with a wee bit of extra luck - Amsterdam!

[TEITS]

2 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

'If' being the word. Of course the mean will drop if a cold outcome 'verifies'. Really?

12Z GEFS mean. Exceptional like the 06Z and nothing further to add.

[chris55]

This SSW has the potential to deliver one of the coldest late February/early March cold periods we have seen for many years.

We often talk about Stratospheric happenings in the hunt for cold spells, and it seems we may have hit the jackpot in the way the upcoming warming is set to unfold way up there. It will be facinating to see how it ultimately effects our patch.

exciting times  

Edited February 9, 2018 by chris55

[Frosty.]

Check out the control!!!..and that's only the tip of the iceberg, there is growing support for a very cold late Feb!!...I'm sure there will be lots more jaw dropping, eye popping charts in the coming days..all edging closer!

Edited February 9, 2018 by Frosty.

[ICE COLD]

Ecm 168 ?

[Scandinavian High.]

GEFS 12z have trended colder..

[ICE COLD]

Up she goes at 192 hrs ?. 

[Ice Day]

OK, just got in from work and things seem to be very much on the up.  The 12z produced an excellent GFS which was then surpassed by the Control.  The ECM is now showing good consistency run to run, with heights building towards Greenie beginning at 168.   Very encouraging given this mornings rank GFS output,  

And the ECM 192 is keeping the positive trend going.  Lovely lovely stuff!

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks pretty good from the ECM, heights building initially towards our west.

   

The general trend is towards heights building to our north east in week 2, with the likelyhood of an easterly developing during this period increasing as the models slowly trend the same way which seems to be in the direction the Metoffice has been touting for a while now.

      

The GEFs certainy favouring this solution in the extended range. I must admit I find it hard to see a negative looking at the output later on, the depth of cold will be difficult to pinpoint so the mean will be skew by a few outlier solutions as well as east/south easerly solutions which lack cold pooling to our east.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Mucka]

JMA on board, we pretty much have consensus on the Atlantic ridge (for now)

[nick sussex]

Good consistency from the ECM so far lets hope its consistently right!

Early energy separation re UK low and upstream trough is what we want to see which the ECM delivers, no nerve shredding drama.

Lets hope the ECM is calling this correctly.

[comet]

17 minutes ago, chris55 said:

This SSW has the potential to deliver one of the coldest late February cold periods we have seen for many years.

We often talk talk about Stratespheric happenings in the hunt for cold spells, and it seems we may have hit the jackpot in the way the upcoming warming is set to unfold way up there. It will be facinating to see how it ultimately effects our patch.

exciting times  

You never know if everything falls in place we could see a period of weather ( cold and snow wise) that could make its way into British folk lore Can not wait until we see the first heavy fall of powder drifting snow that will lay for many days hopefully.