Jump to content

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Evening All  Ice Cold hope your still with us .... So the much touted SSW is coming into view & here’s my thoughts + timelines of when / where to expect it... We have seen lots of p

Well it's probably fair to say that I've been rather quiet on these forums for the last few years really, especially since 2013. After 15 years of internet weather watching, and more importantly,

Well - ho hum - let's have a sit rep. My eyes are hanging out on stalks.  The pacific first - engine of the climate system. How is our AAM looking in the face of the current high amplitude MJO?

Posted Images

Fronts stalling against the block could be big snowfall for some,then Easterly winds coming back,is how it looks to my amateur eye.:D:gathering::cold:

 Edit.looks messy now,maybe bin it after 144 gfs struggling to work out where the trough disruption will be

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

This run is not really that different from the 12z out to 150hrs.  Uppers slightly higher but just variations on a theme really.  This is a complex set up and details of any snowfall will probably not be nailed until T24 or less

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

This run is not really that different from the 12z out to 150hrs.  Uppers slightly higher but just variations on a theme really.  This is a complex set up and details of any snowfall will probably not be nailed until T24 or less

 

Uppers will gradually get watered down as the weekend gets closer. This will effect 2m temps and lowland snow cover. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4
  • Confused 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Chevron12345 said:

Uppers will gradually get watered down as the weekend gets closer. This will effect 2m temps and lowland snow cover. 

I think that's irrelevant as there will be very little snow this weekend anyway.

  • Confused 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think that's irrelevant as there will be very little snow this weekend anyway.

As in what the weekends upper air models will show with respect to snow next week. We all know ppn this weekend is minimal.

Link to post
Share on other sites

some excellent model output at the moment and some really cold weather looking on the cards but for how long? the models seem to want to prolong the cold but the BBC news 24 forecast ended with milder air winning out toward or over next weekend, so do they see something in models we don't get to see?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

Uppers will gradually get watered down as the weekend gets closer. This will effect 2m temps and lowland snow cover. 

Everyone ignore this post (wind up alert) 

its quite amazing how that mild sector gets squeezed the life out of over the uk between 156 and 180 hrs . You rarely see that . 

IMG_1190.PNG

IMG_1191.PNG

  • Like 4
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Everyone ignore this post (wind up alert) 

its quite amazing how that mild sector gets squeezed the life out of over the uk between 156 and 180 hrs . You rarely see that . 

IMG_1190.PNG

IMG_1191.PNG

Look at the - 10 & - 11 to the North West, truly amazing stuff. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

some excellent model output at the moment and some really cold weather looking on the cards but for how long? the models seem to want to prolong the cold but the BBC news 24 forecast ended with milder air winning out toward or over next weekend, so do they see something in models we don't get to see?

Maybe they see GFS 18z?

gfsnh-0-210.png?18

Given how much the models have changed the short/mid term output over the last 48h I would stick to enjoying the nailed on cold for now. FI is FI and MetO still talking up a mid month Easterly.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, More Snow said:

some excellent model output at the moment and some really cold weather looking on the cards but for how long? the models seem to want to prolong the cold but the BBC news 24 forecast ended with milder air winning out toward or over next weekend, so do they see something in models we don't get to see?

Like the 18 gfs op ? 

Clearly thats not it but the Atlantic getting in next weekend is currently more than feasible 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, More Snow said:

some excellent model output at the moment and some really cold weather looking on the cards but for how long? the models seem to want to prolong the cold but the BBC news 24 forecast ended with milder air winning out toward or over next weekend, so do they see something in models we don't get to see?

I think they mean milder air winning out over their London.That aside,fantastic seeing so much overall cold in the charts,especially in the new deliverer,the Northwesterly.

Edited by Mildcarlisle
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

some excellent model output at the moment and some really cold weather looking on the cards but for how long? the models seem to want to prolong the cold but the BBC news 24 forecast ended with milder air winning out toward or over next weekend, so do they see something in models we don't get to see?

Sounds like a good forecast based on recent output...but it is only temporary and the cold the comes back in

 

05A7C893-C8CD-473A-A3DE-7F2841B338F8.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

some excellent model output at the moment and some really cold weather looking on the cards but for how long? the models seem to want to prolong the cold but the BBC news 24 forecast ended with milder air winning out toward or over next weekend, so do they see something in models we don't get to see?

To be fair, both the GFS and ECM show some milder air trying to make inroads from the west by next weekend.  However, it's been seen countless times before when the cold air is far harder to shift and milder air gets delayed.  Given what's going on with the strat at the moment, it's quite possible that even if (and it's a big 'if') milder air does push through, we may not be waiting for long until the next cold shot arrives.  Anyway, this cold spell hasn't got off the ground yet, lots to look forward to.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Like the 18 gfs op ? 

Clearly thats not it but the Atlantic getting in next weekend is currently more than feasible 

Depends whether it is north or mid Atlantic Nick! ECM says north and colder, GFS says milder mid. Both feasible but both not to be trusted....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

This is looking good . What do you reckon @feb1991blizzard

IMG_1193.PNG

Its an absolute snorter - you might even see the results in the troposphere at the end of the run, but that looks a timeframe outlier though, looks very early in relation to other runs and the GFS is over aggressive with these events and particularly the 18z, however, there is increasing confidence across suites now though that we will see a split SSW, see strat thread and EPS mean (not as good but still very decent).

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

I would like to imagine that the GFS is completely confused at this point.

gfsnh-0-300.png?18

In other news, water is wet and ice is cold .........

ec46 looks to stay cold weeks 3 and 4. moreso 3 but 4 is usuallly lala land ...

  • Like 6
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its an absolute snorter - you might even see the results in the troposphere at the end of the run, but that looks a timeframe outlier though, looks very early in relation to other runs and the GFS is over aggressive with these events and particularly the 18z, however, there is increasing confidence across suites now though that we will see a split SSW, see strat thread and EPS mean (not as good but still very decent).

What like this Feb 

IMG_1195.PNG

IMG_1196.PNG

IMG_1197.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...