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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles much more predisposed to a strong Atlantic ridge.

Pretty safe to assume the Op was wrong

graphe3_1000_261_92___.gif

Yes and they look better than the 12z ūüėÄ

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Where is @tight isobar? I need a model output riddle to decipher before I head for the sack! :D Great model watching today, that GFS control pub run looks smashing! Just a thought before I head off, the GFS has the MJO stalling in phase 7 at decent amplitude, the ECM MJO see's a drop in to phase 8 and fading out fast. Do we want the GFS - MJO outcome or the ECM outcome, one gives more extra tropical forcing for HLB than the other for a longer term. Add the SSW effects to the mix and I know which one I prefer. 

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SSW vs NWP - lol !

This just East of Iceland in the 'mind the gap' split zone... carnage.

graphe4_1000___-14.0625_64.125_.thumb.gif.150a0dde5fa4a0089492b9a226f2b841.gif

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22 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

P19 is the all day vodka suspect... more fun ahead a lot of those Perturbations do something different from the Op..

tempresult_szf8.thumb.gif.1f5a71fc8d639334e32ec5d6cd4b540c.gif

Its-actualy NOT..

With thr bunsen burn effect,  and trop-responses..its quite feasible.

Momentem guide and polar effect-both drag/and lag- like coat hangers on a thin wire with damp/heavy clothing!

Response-and strato- notions make operational outs...look like the drunken gate crasher that ruined the party..

Orbital-and mjo variation..side-by side with massive heat burn @trop-strat ..waves..

inclination  comes to mind..

and reverse is synoptic-on view.

helter skelter response and upper-variations are opposed to westerly response.

zonal reversal -slats-..

it sends on view- tricky decipher! But rings in the ears of most...

unless you need aiding.

 

i'll chuck some snap data in..soon...

Edited by tight isobar

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22 minutes ago, john mac said:

This from Ian tonight.

D9C58244-564F-45CD-BFD4-5F0D22BAC301.png

That‚Äôs from 09:17 Thurs morning not ‚Äútonight‚ÄĚ.¬†

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its-actualy NOT..

With thr bunsen burn effect,  and trop-responses..its quite feasible....

Where do people drink a lot of vodka :cold:

Edited by lorenzo

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Where is @feb1991blizzard he's not posted this week . Though he loved a SSW Event like this ? 

IMG_1320.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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49 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Control run knows the score :)

Lets hope it controls the weather:D

Jokes aside,just read through the MOD thread for a good hour and half(bloody afters hey!) and there has been some good post in here,thanks:)

now what i have noticed between the ecm and gfs at 240 hrs is that the ecm has been modeling an atlantic HLB for the last few runs whereas the gfs as been modeling the HLB block to our NE/N,now that tells me we are going to see a HLB block to our NW/N or northeast so all is good,better than an MLB to our west or east or even over the uk

so which one will be right,the latest 8-14 day 500mb outlook from NOAA shows the block to our NE,i would much prefer this as there would be a lesser trend to a west based -NAO if i am right,the ecm has a narrow margine for error(not to say that the day ten is right) and could set up a west based -NAO

+ the 240 hr chart from ecm

814day.03.gifECH1-240.GIF?08-0

youv'e got to say that the ecm day ten chart looks good but is it right!

the NAO is forcast to stay possitive meaning that the PV segment over NE Canada will stay in situ spawning daughters/throughs of low pressures across the atlantic,now here is the fun bit,whilst we have this block to the NE then there is only one place for them to go and that is SE across the BI or under

nao.sprd2.gif

the AO is still on the neg side but has been forecasting this for some time,do i believe it!, with an SSW just around the corner,the reversal should tank that into well below neg territory.

ao.sprd2.gif

finally the De-built wind direction,now this was flatlining across the middle(westerlies)a few days ago towards the end,now look at it,whatch for the bottoming out through the coming days=>easterly.

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

oh! forgot to post this!

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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9 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Where do people drink a lot of vodka :cold:

The layers are on 'birthday' wishes..

+3 atmospheric...

Whos cutting the cake??

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11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

 

And Strat guru, Amy Butlers reply. Then our own Start Guru's reply incase folks haven't seen them.

5a7ce9bb0bf18_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_20_56.thumb.png.401fbdf0803390ec1cece4367ec0c10e.png      5a7cea40d4e33_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_24_09.thumb.png.d2fd7a9867f1b41b1ed1a6cb500ea976.png

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955mb low over Ireland. it's official, GFS has lost the plot.

gfsnh-0-138.png

UKMO also looking stormy but more believable.

UN144-21.GIF?09-05

Another noticeable difference is the very obvious ridge in the Atlantic sector on UKMO which GFS is once again oblivious to.

I am seriously inclined to ignore GFS output for now but the problem is nothing can be discounted.

Meanwhile the potential for heavy snow for some on the 13th is still there, very marginal and could be anything from a couple of inches to a washout.

iconeu_uk1-1-105-0.png?09-05

 

Edited by Mucka

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3 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Good morning. Is this looking good ¬†or bad please for cold outlook? Sorry but I'm a novice lol.. Thanks ūüĖí

At the moment it is case of one step forward, one step back. 

No clarity or consistency as yet.

A bit of everything in GFS ensembles - some great runs, some not so great.

gensnh-9-1-276.pnggensnh-6-1-288.png

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15 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Good morning. Is this looking good ¬†or bad please for cold outlook? Sorry but I'm a novice lol.. Thanks ūüĖí

Cold but not showing deep cold. Having looked at the output from this morning and read comments from professionals it is very clear to me.

 

no one nor no model has a clue and it's a case of waiting until the ssw to see what effects it has and then we may get a handle on the way forward.  We know that blocking is more likely to occur but until we know where we don't know what effect it will have for us. We are seeing some erratic output at the moment hopefully this will be less so after the ssw.

Edited by That ECM

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5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lets hope it controls the weather:D

Jokes aside,just read through the MOD thread for a good hour and half(bloody afters hey!) and there has been some good post in here,thanks:)

now what i have noticed between the ecm and gfs at 240 hrs is that the ecm has been modeling an atlantic HLB for the last few runs whereas the gfs as been modeling the HLB block to our NE/N,now that tells me we are going to see a HLB block to our NW/N or northeast so all is good,better than an MLB to our west or east or even over the uk

so which one will be right,the latest 8-14 day 500mb outlook from NOAA shows the block to our NE,i would much prefer this as there would be a lesser trend to a west based -NAO if i am right,the ecm has a narrow margine for error(not to say that the day ten is right) and could set up a west based -NAO

+ the 240 hr chart from ecm

814day.03.gifECH1-240.GIF?08-0

youv'e got to say that the ecm day ten chart looks good but is it right!

the NAO is forcast to stay possitive meaning that the PV segment over NE Canada will stay in situ spawning daughters/throughs of low pressures across the atlantic,now here is the fun bit,whilst we have this block to the NE then there is only one place for them to go and that is SE across the BI or under

nao.sprd2.gif

the AO is still on the neg side but has been forecasting this for some time,do i believe it!, with an SSW just around the corner,the reversal should tank that into well below neg territory.

ao.sprd2.gif

finally the De-built wind direction,now this was flatlining across the middle(westerlies)a few days ago towards the end,now look at it,whatch for the bottoming out through the coming days=>easterly.

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

oh! forgot to post this!

 

0/360 is north, 180 south, 270 west and 90 east, the plots for wind are better on the knmi site btw, the don't scatter but are plotted like an asymptot 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/weer-en-klimaatpluim

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Why do I get the feeling that blocking is less likely to favour us ? 

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ECM going with GFS and spitting a ball of vortex energy at us but very different upstream.

ECH1-144.GIF?09-12gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka

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T144 all 3. Cold, windy, wintry(rain) depending on location etc. It's from here that the output becomes erratic. Will ecm follow last nights run? 

IMG_0504.PNG

IMG_0505.PNG

IMG_0506.PNG

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Ok not less likely it just looks quite messy not many with clean favourable blocking 

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One thing the models have started to agree on is to downgrade blocking to the East - looks like we may be relying on an Atlantic ridge to get things going but ECM wants to force that East this morning

ECH1-192.GIF?09-12

If it does then hopefully it will at least push into Scandinavia and give us an Easterly

Not really worth worrying about at this stage but the output could be better,

 

Edited by Mucka

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Is it me or does the Atlantic seem to be going in to overdrive in this mornings runs?

Have we been led up the garden path again?

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Ok not less likely it just looks quite messy not many with clean favourable blocking 

Ecm maybe about to disagree:D t192  charts below. T144 to t192 is not resolved.

IMG_0508.PNG

IMG_0510.PNG

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