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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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This looks promising NAO and AO taking a good nose dive

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4ACA6B2A-EF9B-4F24-B3F9-045FAEC2D056.jpeg

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A massive area of high pressure to north and east of uk we could in for deep freeze...:cold::yahoo:

IMG_0510.JPG

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is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

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1 minute ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

It’s just you ! The next 3/4 weeks is what most on net weather look forward to. 

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Nice to see 12z is finally moving in the right direction with the SSW and is onto setting up that jackpot blocking. We need the perfect upgrades from now onwards.   :clap:  

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1 minute ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

I agree there is not much showing at the moment but we have to remember the SSW has not even taken place yet and until it does the models are not going to latch on to a specific trop pattern. If in 10 days we still do not see decent output i will concede but until then I still think all cards are on the table.

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5 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

But it's always going to be 10 days plus at the minute. The SSW is not happening until the weekend . Give it a chance little sausage 😁

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

  • I'm h-a-p-p-y I'm h-a-p-p-y I know I am, I'm sure I am, I'm h-a-p-p-y:D

There's always the risk it might go wrong but for along time we have a good chance. 

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24 minutes ago, fromey said:

This looks promising NAO and AO taking a good nose dive

9780387E-BDB9-4610-90DF-61E6E8E56604.jpeg

4ACA6B2A-EF9B-4F24-B3F9-045FAEC2D056.jpeg

they have progressed a bit lower through the day, the AO solidly -3 and the NAO -1 .....

seems 17/2 is when the oscillations are solidly negative.

 

Edited by bluearmy

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6 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

You’re probably not alone but when you have the big guns with more than eyebrows raised you know something is up. This must have been the 9th consecutive GFS run which has brought an easterly/cold in, this only happens in exceptional circumstances, this is clearly one of them unfolding right in front of us. The NH atmospheric circulation is going to go through considerable change within the next few days, it looks absoloutely ripe for HLB ahead and I genuinely don’t find GFS 12z too implausible it’s in the envelope of options IMO. The SSW and split itself is literally knocking at the door, so much to be optimistic about I think we should see a cold spell comfortably within this month so not to fret regarding time. Bit of patience required, I’m sure we’ll get there. Keep calm. :) 

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The GEFS 12z shows some stonking perturbations giving us an idea of what the upcoming potential Freeze could look like!:cold::D👍👍👍❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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ecm much less keen on arctic heights day 6. (than its previous run and other models).  would expect it to be keen given its zonal flow profile from the berlin site

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ecm much less keen on arctic heights day 6. (than its previous run and other models).  would expect it to be keen given its zonal flow profile from the berlin site

Day 6,7 and 8 are very different. 

IMG_1312.PNG

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30 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

It's just you, everything is progressing largely as expected.

We're not looking for sudden, deep cold/widespread blizzards setups to appear in the models, we're looking for slow, subtle upgrades that lead to much colder, blocked conditions and thus far, that's exactly whats happening. 

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33 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!!

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

I can understand your frustration seeing those scenes from Paris but in these set ups as those frontal bands head se the milder sector generally disappears as the fronts occlude and any flow ahead even from the sw or s still has the benefit of some cooling as it crosses the country.

On a lighter note a very funny pic has come out , apparently some students from a University near Paris decided instead of building a snowman on a roundabout built something rather rude!

Anyway in terms of the outputs , still issues with the low near the UK and its reluctance to clear se but instead hang around waiting to phase with the upstream trough.

So yes I share your concerns , we're not seeing a clear evolution to a decent block and the ECM at T192hrs shows this issue.

We need more energy separation earlier.

Anyway the SSW will verify but as to what that delivers still too early to say regardless of the more interesting GFS 12hrs run.

Edited by nick sussex

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Week 2 signal for Greenland blocking from there the NAO looks negative for a sustained period.

 

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ecm much less keen on arctic heights day 6. (than its previous run and other models).  would expect it to be keen given its zonal flow profile from the berlin site

Been a poor show from the ECM this winter so far will attach some comparisons later, as previously noted verification stats are kind of useless for our tiny island, incremental small changes affect the UK in large way.

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this op ec seems more keen on a genral draining away of low hights over the arctic than building any specific blocks. leaves the two vortex segments fairly comfortable for the time being .........

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Day 10 is even better 😮

IMG_1315.PNG

IMG_1316.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 9 is ok 😁

IMG_1314.PNG

Yes day 9 saves an influx of calls to the NW Helpline! However I'm not liking how it gets there, no margin for error with the upstream trough and if the energy doesn't split then we're in trouble.

Overall I give the ECM a code red, I hope it can improve tomorrow.

The day 10 is great but its far too traumatic in getting there!

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

this op ec seems more keen on a genral draining away of low hights over the arctic than building any specific blocks. leaves the two vortex segments fairly comfortable for the time being .........

Looks like we are getting there based on day 9. I think we have to remember as soon as the SSW downwells to the troposphere low pressure systems over/near the UK will suddenly weaken out of nowhere.

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Kaboom! Wonderful day 10 from ECM Greenland is where my eyes will be.

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Most assuring some continuity there with 00z....

Edited by Daniel*

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