Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I'll reserve judgement on the possible ramifications (viz the models) of the upcoming SSW until after the newfangled Net Weather Wormhole App comes online!:cold:

is this SSW  being shown also the final warming too ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Singularity said:

If I may be exceptionally simplistic, without interference I can picture the downward propagation leading to a surface high in roughly the position drawn in red.

It's the activity in the Atlantic that may interfere, but hopefully not sufficiently so to be anything other than a source of snow events.

Dream.PNG

Quite so James we need the Atlantic to interfere just a bit so that we don't have to rely just on disturbances in the easterly flow to spread the snow around .One of the reasons I like the idea of a Greenie or Icewegian high rather than a straightforward Scandie job. The former tend to allow just enough interference from the Atlantic to make it a bit more interesting snow wise down south and out west. 

For instance the great blizzard of 78. Thd cold spell started as a Scandie high on 7th but by the time the snows came it as a result of fronts stalling against a Greenie high ridging southeast across the UK. We got to snowstorm and the great blizzard in five days from that set up down here in Dorset.

 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so James we need the Atlantic to interfere just a bit so that we don't have to rely just on disturbances in the easterly flow to spread the snow around .One of the reasons I like the idea of a Greenie or Icewegian high rather than a straightforward Scandie job. The former tend to allow just enough interference from the Atlantic to make it a bit more interesting snow wise down south and out west. 

 

A Greenie high would encourage an arctic air mass (Northerly winds) to be drawn south so it would be win win as a Scandinavian anticyclone is strongly supported too, could be a double whammy, from the n / e!!:D:cold:

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes you maybe right BA . But the GFS 00z had this for Day 10 -IMG_1303.thumb.PNG.6684bd3fd3fb079069fd689b3abc0964.PNG

And the GFS 6z had this for day 10IMG_1310.thumb.PNG.a8d2968bec750e7ee862c3ec77eb051c.PNG

so I really don't think it does have a handle on the SSW , It's completely different . 😁

I wouldn’t be looking at ops post day 7 for any particular detail other than ‘look, there is blocking somewhere ‘ or ‘ look, it’s mobile with a strong vortex ‘

i’m referring more to the means and clusters 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking forward to seeing how the models evolve over the next day or two to hopefully see more HLB taking hold and eventually a cold Europe ❄️❄️❄️❄️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LRD said:

A cold spell seems inevitable now

Even this from the 06z run of the GFS...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

...has a lot of northern 'blockiness' even though, on face value, it doesn't look good for cold weather

 

To my eye that just looks mainly cold & wet ( hill snow) wth lots of P.M air , good for Scotland & elavation , not so nice for the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, craigore said:

To my eye that just looks mainly cold & wet ( hill snow) wth lots of P.M air , good for Scotland & elavation , not so nice for the rest.

It may look like it at the moment but there is a lot going on in the background, Im not going to guess where it’s heading as I’m not an expert but I wouldn’t be taking the models at face value, all I can says is there will be a lot of flip flopping be it good or bad nobody knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tamara said:

 (Space saving)

Ideally though, at least in my opinion, the best timing for the SSW would have been in the last 10 days, in tandem with the massive AAM surge and GWO in most amplified phases.

All possibilities, including good ones remain, but I think its important to gauge the SSW against what has been and gone and how the cyclical nature of the atmosphere may influence (mitigate or enhance) the tropospheric effects of the implosion within the polar field.

 

 

Thanks for the excellent input as usual Tamara :good:

I find it encouraging that even the negative-happy GEFS have trended away from taking AAM back into into Nina GWO territory;

gfsgwo_1.png

It was outside the circle for much longer until today's update :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really quiet in here right now!!nothing WOW has developed on this run i assume aswell then🤔!!!if its better than the 06z i happily take it!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Really quiet in here right now!!nothing WOW has developed on this run i assume aswell then🤔!!!if its better than the 06z i happily take it!!

gfs-0-144.png?12

Atlantic digging further south. Its a change at least,,,, Possibility of some snow on the northern edge dependant of the track

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, shaky said:

Really quiet in here right now!!nothing WOW has developed on this run i assume aswell then🤔!!!if its better than the 06z i happily take it!!

It's only out to T+144. Not expecting any eye candy til at least T+240 as per @chionomaniac 's message earlier. Obviously in the coming days the eye candy charts will hopefully be getting a lot closer :D.

Edited by Paul_1978

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

h850t850eu.png

Sure is a wall going up to the east by day 6 - shame we have such a vigorous LP system paying us a visit in the meantime.

If it kept adjusting south though, it'd end up shallower and further SE relative to the UK.

Such a trend I would anticipate with some confidence if it wasn't for the way ECM's kept on producing a deeper low that stalls out further NW.


Edit: Some progress with UKMO though!

UW144-21.GIF?08-17 UN144-21.GIF?08-17

The piling up of low heights and cold air in our vicinity is going to complicate matters when it comes to quietening down the Atlantic but get the jet stream far enough into Europe and it can be done in the space of a few days. 

hgt300.png hgt300.png
Jet across N. Atlantic slightly weaker on GFS 12z (right), another positive adjustment.

Edited by Singularity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

h850t850eu.png

Block well propped by low tucking in underneath, Atlantic driving WAA due north up western flank.

Any push of the boundary east from the Atlantic going forward will surely be modelling error; the setup is almost (i.e. a tilt of the WAA toward SE-NW alignment away from) as much of an easterly precursor as it gets even if there wasn't a SSW involved.

Edited by Singularity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

UKMO looking really good.

Continuation of trend for taking low pressure more south distinct possibility of a disruptive snow event in the next 7 days. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fantastic blocking to N/NE at T+210 the sort that has a formidable easterly in the wings feel to it. 

E32F5CC3-D49B-4D47-90C6-AB2A6FFC7B78.thumb.png.d5220fead7d33eb5269532b2ecd86502.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...