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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Svalbard region  is looking like the Bookies favourite for an initial pressure rise 

gens_paneldir9_mini.png

From there on

it just gets tastier

Conserver cette image

 

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Nice looking UKMO out to 120. GFS still struggling

UN120-21.GIF?07-17gfsnh-0-48.png

GFS 12z comparisons show it is correcting but likely still playing catch up

Yesterday/today

gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-0-120.png

Edited by Mucka

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Quick 1-for now gfs 12z upto 108...cold with lots of snow potential as fronts move into the cold air..

And without mentioning them...

Im sure you've heard this elsewhere!!!

gfs-1-108.png

Edited by tight isobar

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Quick 1-for now gfs 12z upto 108...cold with lots of snow potential as front move into the cold air..

And without mentioning them...

Im sure you've heard this elsewhere!!!

gfs-1-108.png

Which front and where is it on that chart buddy🤔

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Nice looking UKMO out to 120. GFS still struggling

UN120-21.GIF?07-17gfsnh-0-48.png

Indeed Mucka, it (PV) looks in trouble as early as +96 on UKMO

The stretch is on!

70921732-80CC-4F7C-B56F-0F4C0AF9B466.thumb.gif.e7b5c8d02272b82e7bee5d3dbe9ad8f5.gif

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Interesting run at day 5/6, the jet takes a dive and the energy slides south, possible snow event for northern/favoured areas. Subject to change of course.

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-144.png?12gfs-0-150.png?6

As above you can see the Jet has really dug south compared to earlier Runs.

Not sure where the GFS is going to go now.

Low pressure over the nw Med and the PV looks like it’s deflating already .

Edited by nick sussex

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not sure where the GFS is going to go now.

Low pressure over the nw Med and the PV looks like it’s deflating already .

Low pressure about to develop to the South and positive heights building to the NE, I'd like to think we can guess. :D

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Just now, Mucka said:

Low pressure about to develop to the South and positive heights building to the NE, I'd like to think we can guess. :D

Could this be a VQTR!  :)

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Just now, nick sussex said:

Could this be a VQTR!  :)

sorry but what is a vqtr? excuse me

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Just now, nick sussex said:

Could this be a VQTR!  :)

Looks like it might!

purples turning blue by day 7

heights building svaalbard

 jet splitting se and the vortex extension correcting west ....

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The trend recently has been to push everything south this may be an initial impact of SSW / split it could create some very unsettled weather, but increasingly there could be snow events even in the S.

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06z Left, 12z Right:

npsh500.pngnpsh500.png

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Well well well, what do we have here then? Storm track adjusting considerably south and trough not leaning to the NE as much on the eastern flank. A more pronounced low by Italy.

All positive developments for getting the continental cold in sooner.

h850t850eu.png npsh500.png

A day later and the trough is starting to give way already.

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2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

sorry but what is a vqtr? excuse me

A very quick trop response to the SSW.

Edited by nick sussex

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Significant blocking showing in the GFS 12z Op run already at day 7

image.thumb.png.b94571e2e58ef4d13f47b30d4da781d3.png

:)

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GFS at 180 and the Atlantic is hitting the buffers in a major way!

6BF66E3D-0584-486F-AC62-D3D1BD508589.thumb.png.9c4c69f7822eb5c3fd14280cd7395f9c.png

I cant see it getting that far in the first place to be honest! I think trough disruption will be west of the UK not over it. Heights to our east flexing it’s muscles! 

Edited by karlos1983

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS at 180 and the Atlantic is hitting the buffers in a major way!

6BF66E3D-0584-486F-AC62-D3D1BD508589.thumb.png.9c4c69f7822eb5c3fd14280cd7395f9c.png

I cant see it getting that far in the first place to be honest!

Undercut potential is definitely there. The blocking to NE seems omnipresent. 

Edited by Daniel*

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If the models suddenly latch onto this quick response then I still wouldn’t trust them past T120hrs .

And If they go this route then clearly regardless of their strat input until you get much closer to the actual SSW then they find it hard to cope with the reversal .

Anyway just one run so we need a few more and see what the ECM has to say.

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h850t850eu.png npsh500.png

Major blocking to the east and the jet cutting in underneath... suddenly at 8 day's range.

I am officially feeling the anticipation now - but who's betting ECM plays the stubborn game this evening... if it does, I will be writing a very stern letter to ECMWF :laugh:

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No surprise to see the block flexing it muscles earlier than expected bearing in mind GP's latest post inthe strat thread musing over top tercile mjo event in the pacific leading to near record breaking zonal wind reversal.

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