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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The charts are absolute PONY-and have been proven many times to be at range!!!

Arpege will be the viewer-for me anyway-

Been close on the money, especially within a 24-48 hrs window.

Yes but those charts over estimate the snow - not under estimate it - Euro4 and UKV for me for PPN amounts although when formatted for BBC / Met Office map location forecasts they aint great for PPN type.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but those charts over estimate the snow - not under estimate it - Euro4 and UKV for me for PPN amounts although when formatted for BBC / Met Office map location forecasts they aint great for PPN type.

They both over estimate-on and geograpicaly lose site!!

Edited by tight isobar

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Over estimate frontal snow perhaps / under estimate convective snow-

Parts of Kent / EA have had 10cms snow before yet the models didn’t have a thing or record a thing !

ECM snow charts on weather.us massively over estimated for me the other week with that N'werly, it continuously was having me down for 6-12 inches of snow and I had a few dustings and a couple of inch slush falls.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM snow charts on weather.us massively over estimated for me the other week with that N'werly, it continuously was having me down for 6-12 inches of snow and I had a few dustings and a couple of inch slush falls.

But my friend in NI got 31cm off the flow @Sperrin

lets see how it pans out

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6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Stunning charts, stunning prospects. 1st Feb, we couldn't really ask for more.

The ridging has consistently (bar the odd wobble) been upgrading over the past couple of days and we are now on the cusp of a decent cold spell, and perhaps a memorable final third of the winter.

Try to predict the finer details to your hearts' contents but it is complete and utter folly. The details won't be firmed up for a while yet (not sure how many times that gets said but it clearly gets ignored just as many times).

Strat warming and Pacific activity set to increase the chances that this could roll on throughout the month and into March.

This is a VERY rare sight indeed...

t850Dorset.thumb.png.bd88ef896b469f5d5f8e629bd1c0b17f.png

 

I await the first breakdown search post (never understood that mindset).

Excellent post, agree with just about all of it.

The ECM mean uppers are looking very good at 120 and 144 

120 EDH0-120.GIF?01-0 144 EDH0-144.GIF?01-0

PS. the 168 and 192 aren't too shoddy either

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

This is no 4 day cold spell. Last nights GFS was crazy and in the main I don’t think everyone expected that to verify did they?

ECM shows cold established by Sunday and still there the following Saturday. I make that 6-7 days minimum! Bang tidy !

EC046279-45C4-40B6-8BC6-14AA21AA9B86.thumb.png.88ecf52d90eb473b569c43d51e991b1a.png88002401-B104-4B69-89B3-175741C2C51C.thumb.png.0e3ea073e5fd17fc8a63fd19fbcb4c66.png

Spot on Karlos. And... you found the first looking for the breakdown (before it even got going) post! :D

These cold 'squeeze' charts are very rare and great because the margin of error is much greater than normal. Unusual countrywide snow events are possible as well.

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With regards to the cold that is coming its interesting to read some comments on UKWW about how this has happened. 

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npsh500.192.png  npsh500.png

npsh500.240.png  npsh500.png

 

Okay so the top row, day 8, shows where GFS (on the right) begins to move away from what's theoretically more likely as you get this long straight Atlantic flow when something more 'curvy' is favoured. 

By day 10 the differences between it and ECM is clear to see, the latter (on the left) much better for the cold fighting back shortly afterwards as the trough stretches out and weakens, and in any case it's much less in the way of adjustments away from the cold standing firm instead.

So as a set of 12z runs go, a very satisfactory one overall today, just need GFS to stop being so vigorous with the Canadian vortex lobe. It is admittedly not entirely out of the question that it proves just too strong, but with a weakening vortex lobe in the stratosphere you'd think the odds would be against that. Hopefully!

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7 minutes ago, on the coast said:

With regards to the cold that is coming its interesting to read some comments on UKWW about how this has happened. 

Same old faces that have been on there for years - will hand etc.  All what smartie said has been posted on here in the run up to this winter... but there you go :) 

At least he seems a decent poster with solid information...-

 

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Winter has finally arrived for Western Europe, Enjoy. 

EPS way below average all the way and has been for a good couple of days. 

B9DB6AAD-E239-46A5-B27B-1D06E7A9A02A.png

I know it’s only an anomaly chart but things keep on getting better 🙈🙈

EA3C8ADA-7466-4508-B0CA-2F1F35645ACC.png

Edited by shotski

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Hopefully number 16 from the gfs ensemble run,is where we will end up mid-month with sub -20 hpa incoming from the other side of the North sea:D:cold:

 

 

142E4A1E-10BA-4135-9F90-5FBF5F6805B2.png

85462EFD-E677-46F9-99DA-E2B774A8FA24.png

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50 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Incredible and bizarre synoptics again today from the ECM.

But it is pretty stingy on the snow. Only significant accumulations in the North/West. I find that hard to believe considering the amount of Atlantic air coming in and a decent Euro trough at times, but we'll see.

As for the cold, the ECM currently doing nighttime lows between -5C and -10C, and daytime maximums just getting above 0C and probably not above 2C anywhere in the middle of next week. If there is more snow cover than currently forecast, I think a couple more degrees could be knocked off.

With such low uppers and light winds, surface heating (so to speak) to even a slight degree might be enough to spark of showers inland, depending on how low the relative humidity is (too low and as many will know, no amount of uplift is going to to the trick).

That detail relates strongly to fine details such as the evaporation rate off the N. Sea and the efficiency of transport of that moisture inland. Frost formation will inhibit this, but any daytime thawing in the sun might locally help out. Delving into the highly uncertain realms of micro-detail now, best I leave this until nearer the time!

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean get colder post day 10 !!!!

 

Indeed, met going for a cold month. People will next be saying " typical, Feb only has 28 days" :D

The snow depth charts are for fun only until nearer the time. Little features pop up from what seems nowhere. Have another read of nick's post ref the fax charts and see how they have changed and they have been completed by professionals. Sit back and enjoy I would suggest.

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I think the band coming in from the NW Tues - the cut off line will be the M1 if your lucky.... 

For once the SW could be in the firing line.....

Gutted. Truly gutted :rofl:

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here's one for the M4 corridor south brigade - this would smash it in spectacular style!!

cfsnh-0-756_jvs7.png

I’ve always liked You Feb :D

All seriousness though, CFS has been quite consistent last few days about a very cold blocked Feb into March. I know it’s not the most reliable model but it’s accessible, so we are always going to look. 

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here's one for the M4 corridor south brigade - this would smash it in spectacular style!!

cfsnh-0-756_jvs7.png

Wow, and only 756 hours away, all but certain:yahoo:

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