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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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55 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is stunning bitterly cold across the SE in particular and EA the T+72 FAX chart with the all important human input is mouth watering. Dare I say maybe Thames streamer territory. 

442DB536-083E-43B0-A59F-B6F33175CC3E.thumb.gif.7633470ffc33fdf87fd26e4b89035087.gif

It must be really confusing for newbies, when UKMO's faxes look like that one does, while at the same time the Beeb's website (and the latest BBC forecast) is predicting +7C on Sunday...I can't see the -11C uppers shown on most, if not all, of the latest model-output, yielding such high maxima...+3C perhaps?:cc_confused: 

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What an ecm!!cant believe what am seeing!!its actually better than the gfs and ukmo!!looking forward to 18z now!!

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It must be really confusing for newbies, when UKMO's faxes look like that one does, while at the same time the Beeb's website (and the latest BBC forecast) is predicting +7C on Sunday...I can't see the -11C uppers shown on most, if not all, of the latest model-output, yielding such high maxima...+3C perhaps?:cc_confused: 

Still some disagreement between GFS, ECM & UKMO perhaps? Many people (including myself) have noticed this temperature difference from various parts of the U.K. & Ireland. UKMO continues to be "less cold" than the others 

Edited by Draig Goch

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It must be really confusing for newbies, when UKMO's faxes look like that one does, while at the same time the Beeb's website (and the latest BBC forecast) is predicting +7C on Sunday...I can't see the -11C uppers shown on most, if not all, of the latest model-output, yielding such high maxima...+3C perhaps?:cc_confused: 

I think as a rule of thumb you deduct 10 from the uppers in early feb. Anyone confirm?

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It's a completely different set up to 2010.

Back then we had constant strong Northeast to East winds which drove showers well inland. Anyone who knows a bit about forecasting knows that under col conditions like next week dry and bitter bitter cold is the former horse.

So different to 2010 BUT because of the encroaching atlantic it COULD deliver as much fun!!

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is stunning bitterly cold across the SE in particular and EA the T+72 FAX chart with the all important human input is mouth watering. Dare I say maybe Thames streamer territory. 

442DB536-083E-43B0-A59F-B6F33175CC3E.thumb.gif.7633470ffc33fdf87fd26e4b89035087.gif

Current models suggest most places in the SE will stay mainly dry as snow fronts struggle to make it over that far.

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1 minute ago, Richard Fisher said:

Current models suggest most places in the SE will stay mainly dry as snow fronts struggle to make it over that far.

eh? SE favoured spot, Sun/Sun night and mon/mon night

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4 minutes ago, ptow said:

I think as a rule of thumb you deduct 10 from the uppers in early feb. Anyone confirm?

Certainly not...the models will take into account modification-and format them.

With sub-minima out east from the feed...they may be modeled in nearer frame to decrease!

Edited by tight isobar

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9 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Current models suggest most places in the SE will stay mainly dry as snow fronts struggle to make it over that far.

I doubt that our risk, over here in the east, will come from frontal snow; lake-effect snow from the North Sea might be our best bet...Especially should the whole pattern be shifted even further away to the west...?:santa-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone

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7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's a completely different set up to 2010.

Back then we had constant strong Northeast to East winds which drove showers well inland. Anyone who knows a bit about forecasting knows that under col conditions like next week dry and bitter bitter cold is the former horse.

So different to 2010 BUT because of the encroaching atlantic it COULD deliver as much fun!!

The difference is snow showers will be slow moving instead of racing through while they are heavier. More snow falls in a longer space of time so that offsets lower intensity. Do not go by the models until in Euro4 range which isn’t far off. I can see a localised foot  potentially in excess in SE cumulatively probably somewhere in Kent, north downs? I don’t need precip charts to see potential.

Edited by Daniel*

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

post 144z must be poor as there have been no posts...or prove me wrong. :)

Depends what you like really. Only after 144hrs does the snow begin to pile up - especially in the north. 

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26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wonderful model output, wonderful Ecm 12z!..prepare for a much colder spell next week with plenty of sharp / severe frosts, ice days and yes..even some snow, hard to say where or how much but there is potential!!..get the cold entrenched first..it's coming!!:cold-emoji::D❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

96_mslp850uk.png

<SNIP>

Uppers down to -13 in the south is really quite something!

Edited by shuggee

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I dont quite see the current set up being full on snow either, pressure at the moment look high and thicknesses look a little high also so I think any convection in the SE will be shallow and skies could be more of a grey layer than a sunshine and shower set up but this may still change.

For most of the UK it's looking dry and cold once Saturdays front fizzles out, the risk of any snowfall will be any fronts bumping into the cold air but far too much uncertainty to place much detail on it.

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Incredible and bizarre synoptics again today from the ECM.

But it is pretty stingy on the snow. Only significant accumulations in the North/West. I find that hard to believe considering the amount of Atlantic air coming in and a decent Euro trough at times, but we'll see.

As for the cold, the ECM currently doing nighttime lows between -5C and -10C, and daytime maximums just getting above 0C and probably not above 2C anywhere in the middle of next week. If there is more snow cover than currently forecast, I think a couple more degrees could be knocked off.

Edited by Man With Beard

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18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

i'll be in my regional thread for a fare old time i susspect in coming days...given forming synoptics...

*i hear screams of please no* from my fellow south-easterners..😂😂😂

edit;..

another peachy set 12z london ens.

MT8_London_ens.png

Let’s hope others follow your lead ti! Its hard work ploughing through 5 pages of will it snow in my backyard posts lol, good job January is out of the way or I’d be forced to break my dry ban!

cracking set of 12z Op’s!! ECM is stunning and probably the pick of the bunch for me at +144 and UKMO not to be sniffed at, looks quite snowy for England.

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Remember that details will change run to run folks, and as we get nearer the time anything can pop up. Almost always the way. Really looking forward to this imminent cold spell.

 

Edited by karlos1983

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Temperature wise on SUNNIER  days I have found that 850's +10 during December and most of Jan. Early feb 850's +11. By third week in Feb 850's +12 and into first two weeks of March 850's + 13. By the time you get to mid April 850's + 15. On thick cloudy days even in March it may only be 850's + 11. There are exceptions ie during very cold March 2013 on 22nd march here in Hertfordshire with cloud cover and light snow at times and 850 temps of just -5c we only saw a max of -1c due to very cold surface air at 925mb that had made its way over from the continent.  

I have gone for a cet for Feb of -2c so I am expecting a ferocious beast from the east later in Feb with the vortex setting up home of central northern Europe hopefully. Brilliant model viewing at present but I think there is much better to come courtesy of strat, MJO etc.

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49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 144

heavy slow moving snow showers over England- more especially in the E&SE

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Not according to the snow charts very little away from the north and west

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Not according to the snow charts very little away from the north and west

dc0a9b1c-383b-4996-80d5-0716a0ce39e1.thumb.png.79fe4fa50aab8d50209b1f2dfa15a249.png537610fd-e4a0-43d8-857e-578d79b274b81.thumb.png.739e7b6d7d1b24948c352bedbb17a442.png

We know that those ECM snow depth charts, and any model for that case really struggle at that picking up convective showers, particularly at that range. I think best to wait closer to time and until hi res models come into play.

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not according to the snow charts very little away from the north and west

dc0a9b1c-383b-4996-80d5-0716a0ce39e1.thumb.png.79fe4fa50aab8d50209b1f2dfa15a249.png537610fd-e4a0-43d8-857e-578d79b274b81.thumb.png.739e7b6d7d1b24948c352bedbb17a442.png

The models aren’t good at shower activity and just about cope with frontal precip so I’d be wary of reading too much into either the GFS or ECM snow acc charts .

 

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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

We know that those ECM snow depth charts, and any model for that case really struggle at that picking up convective showers, particularly at that range. I think best to wait closer to time and until hi res models come into play.

Still a bit of blue there for us snow starved kentish&east Sussex folks🤞😄

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15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Let’s hope others follow your lead ti! Its hard work ploughing through 5 pages of will it snow in my backyard posts lol, good job January is out of the way or I’d be forced to break my dry ban!

cracking set of 12z Op’s!! ECM is stunning and probably the pick of the bunch for me at +144 and UKMO not to be sniffed at, looks quite snowy for England.

3F96A3A8-A0B6-4691-89B1-2EFA482F520C.thumb.png.4b76db9180b3449b6c6444019c8f01ee.pngB4669BC0-9778-4BD1-9E42-6ABECFA2BBA8.thumb.png.01523b46b693ab0059536bed42eda2b5.png1809EC1C-5A73-4C8B-8211-79655028D001.thumb.gif.81e07c277b9d969f5f4aa1b5f18aa230.gif

Remember that details will change run to run folks, and as we get nearer the time anything can pop up. Almost always the way. Really looking forward to this imminent cold spell.

 

Which model in your opinion shows better in terms of longevity cold

Im sure last nights 18z gfs was showing cold all the way out to 300 fl wheras the ecm looks to be eroded by the atlantic by the time we get to nxt friday.

Which leads me to think this is a 4 day cold spell...

 

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