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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Phew thanks Catacol, I was starting to wonder why nobody was mentioning the MJO this eve. Lag from that ought to have interesting effects a bit ahead of the SSW I should think or have I got my lag times wrong? Ta

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Almost back to a Scandi High at T144

gfs-0-144.png?18

Note the heights anomaly to NE is back on the clusters

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020412_144.

Just one cluster D11-D15 but blocked NE again (don't trust one cluster runs too much, though)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020412_336. 

Edited by Man With Beard

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It's worth putting a link to this tweet in. Now I Know that this is just temperature charts but it demonstrates the idea that I was explaining regarding the initial destruction of the Siberian segment of vortex. What it doesn't show yet though is the second phase ( not reliable yet) of the Hudson Bay vortex destruction. We may not need this but would certainly take it.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/960199798606491648

 

Edited by chionomaniac
tweet won't embed

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11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Almost back to a Scandi High at T144

gfs-0-144.png?18

Note the heights anomaly to NE is back on the clusters

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020412_144.

Just one cluster D11-D15 but blocked NE again (don't trust one cluster runs too much, though)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020412_336. 

More importantly, it confirms fergies tweet from earlier so these are indeed ecmwf clusters and there really is only one post day 11!  Probably a fair spread around it but one cluster 

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16 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Exactly @Catacol 

I haven't felt this optimistic at what the models aren't showing yet for a very long time. I wish I could speed it up!

Funny I have been predicting something special on the way for the second half of Feb for a few days now. I even put in a cet for Feb of -2c although that may be overdoing it a tad lol.

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17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It's worth putting a link to this tweet in. Now I Know that this is just temperature charts but it demonstrates the idea that I was explaining regarding the initial destruction of the Siberian segment of vortex. What it doesn't show yet though is the second phase ( not reliable yet) of the Hudson Bay vortex destruction. We may not need this but would certainly take it.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/960199798606491648

 

tweet wont embed

done it for you fred:)

another one

WOW,i am getting sea sick looking at that one lol.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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As if on cue, the mean easterly flow and scandy high appears at the 10+ day range. As I’ve said every night for the last several days, look for trends at the end of low res. Ecm and GEFS are only starting to show the potential that has been expertly discussed above. To catacol and chio in particular, huge appreciation for sharing your expertise. 

 

D5F1ED2D-D9A2-458A-9D53-1479AA871590.png

Edited by ITSY

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49 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

A centimetre or two maybe for these parts on Tuesday, although EURO4 sees no lying snow, even in a lot of upland Pennine areas.

18020612_0412.gif

The curse of the internet and echo chambers, soon we’ll have two forums in one, one hyping things that end up not being delivered by 0h and the other saying ‘nothing to see’ and then being surprised when there is!

Fair point but I can assure that the Pennines has had snow cover for the past few days here in Gods own county of West Yorkshire so that sort of contradicts the whole post,unless of course you're referring to 'new snow cover'😬..if so many apologies ..anyway ..back to the models !!!

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30 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

What an outstanding post. Your a credit to this forum Chio!

Couldn't agree more if chio is optimistic then so am I looking forward to a little teaser this week 

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Keep'em coming Chiono and Catacol. Seeing you both this excited about upcoming synoptics does show how positive the second half of February for coldies is.  Of course many things could scupper the UKs chances but there are so many elements  going for us, this really could be THE ONE!

And if not, it's only the weather and we'll get our just desserts next winter (or the one after)!

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great posts from Chino and Catacol great for getting an understanding about what MAY happen in the near future, of course if it doesn’t, then you may be accused of ‘hopecasting’ Rather than just discussing what the models show at a particular moment in time.

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Thanks for the informative post's Chio and catacol

i see we have a warming now over Asia

gfsnh-10-6.png?18

then we have a split at just 144 hrs(forecasted)

gfsnh-10-144.png?18

interesting times.

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Too much information  and  misleading let's see down the line

:oops:

Pop over to the start thread and educate yourself a little! 

18z still showing a small snowfall Monday into Tuesday for the majority of Scotland, NI, and down towards the north of England. Still appears that it could be patchy with some places seeing a mere dusting and others a few inches possibly, especially at elevation. Further afield is still anyone's guess it would seem, seems like everything is coming together nicely for the first time in a long time with regards to the strat, MJO, low solar activity etc. Gonna be such an interesting end to the winter to see how the charts evolve over the next few weeks 

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17 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yeah - too right. Maybe the Golden Ticket. However I'm sure a few will pop on here and declare it nothing but "normal February weather." Bah - we havent seen background signals like this for years and years. Signals still have to produce... and SSW are not simple things to unravel in terms of impact... but because this one is an atlantic led trop definited split, rather than one driven from the north pacific, my gut feeling is we are well placed for positive impact. I just cant see the Scandy block going anywhere fast given those preconditions. 

However the weather makes monkeys of us often. Eating the words of a confident forecast has been done before... and will be done again! Just hope, given the potential, it isnt going to happen this time...

Yep we definitely want the golden ticket and to be honest we deserve it after the last 5 winters 😁. Thanks for all your input mate much appreciated . Keep it up . 

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Euro4 18z. Actually increases the snowfall rate across compared to the 12z, particularly across the Midlands down towards the south west.

Edited. I had the charts in the wrong order :oops:

euro4 tue1.gifeuro4 tue2.gifeuro4 tue3.gif

Edited by MattStoke

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