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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Maybe these moaners have accepted reality?

You cannot deny that there is an ever increasing downgrade in this so called "cold spell" if you took some of the more "enthusiastic" posters on here at gospel, we'd be knee deep in snow for weeks.

I cannot see anything more than a 2-3 day chilly period early this coming week. The ECM has been pushing mild again in its latter stages for several runs now. The 12z would have my area in double figures next weekend. The GFS still shows some nice charts but I fully expect it to back down and join EMC in the next 48 hours or so at the most.

#Wake-up and smell the coffee

The jet stream has been too strong for weeks   I said this week's ago and Steve Murr Good bless him:oops:

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22 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

What a dour experience the last 20 minutes was reading some of the dross posted in this forum.

Some of the best Synoptics and potential  we’ve seen for years and some (the same 2 or 3 newer members) seem steadfastly determined to spread their doom and gloom, for reasons only known to themselves. To be honest, I don’t really know why they bother to come on the forum because they make no effort to contribute constructively or attempt to learn. Just to nitpick and moan.

This is obviously not a dig at those ‘a little less glass half full’, who post objectively. 

 

Agreed

some people don't think outside the box that this is a public forum for everyone to read and i bet that there are a lot of people discusted with some of the comments on here sometimes,this is a well respected site/forum(to me anyway) and i will continue to contribute on here regardless,anyway, nuff said,be nice guys:)

sorry for derailing a tad

anyway back to the MOD discussion,the trend to me looks the same and has been for some days,has the atlantic broke through yet,NO

18z so far,as you where.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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4 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Not to go off topic too much here but I didn't see one person in here go overboard and say plenty of snow was expected this week as you have claimed but on that comment this week has yet to commence and at the moment parts of Scotland (which I would say is enjoying best winter since 2010), NI and possibly north of England are looking quite good in regard to snowy periods over coming week starting from tomorrow night. For the cold, we are looking at uppers of -10/11 into eastern England for a period of at least 36 hours which I would say isn't the norm especially over last few winters. I would say your comment is quite wrong in that regard. Anyway, much to look forward to over next few days and more so interest continues to build for the rest of this month and into March with the expected SSW event (which is looking mightly impressive even the strat gods on Twitter are seriously impressed).

Wow how far we have fallen to think that a 36 hour period of -10 or -11 uppers is something special!

It's not really pertinent to compare to the last few winters because they have been nothing short of diabolical and pretty much unprecedented. 

I also think it's important to point out that this week's colder snap and the potential spell resulting from the SSW are two completely different entities. At present, we have absolutely ZILCH idea on how the SSW will impact upon the trop profile, nor just how long until we see these effects. It's pie in the sky at present (if you'll excuse the pun).

At current, we are seeing a fairly standard winter week being modelled with a sprinkling of snow about and some sharp overnight frosts. Nothing more, nothing less. Beyond that, into the mid term, we see the cold relax somewhat with a fairly +ve AO/NAO advertised by the ECM out to day 10

ECH1-240.GIF?04-0

Yes there will be changes but as things currently stand we are not really seeing the effects of any SSW being modelled yet (and nor should we be really). It is therefore a fair assertion that after this cold snap, we head back towards something slightly milder and perhaps a tad wetter, for a while at least.

 

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5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The SSW effects are likely to kick in quickly,  but are just out of reach from the models just yet. The cold this week is from the current trop set up. The displaced strong trop vortex has allowed this as I pointed out earlier. The 100hPa day 10 picture shows no vortex from the Pacific - Siberia to Eurasia. Perfect for a large block tropospherically somewhere in that region......

Too much information  and  misleading let's see down the line

:oops:

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prectypeuktopo.pngI see `18z has picked up the occlusion that was on the fax charts for Wednesday .

Edited by BlackburnChris
add chart

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23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

What a dour experience the last 20 minutes was reading some of the dross posted in this forum.

Some of the best Synoptics and potential  we’ve seen for years and some (the same 2 or 3 newer members) seem steadfastly determined to spread their doom and gloom, for reasons only known to themselves. To be honest, I don’t really know why they bother to come on the forum because they make no effort to contribute constructively or attempt to learn. Just to nitpick and moan.

This is obviously not a dig at those ‘a little less glass half full’, who post objectively. 

 

I've added quite a few posters to my ignore list over the last few days. It's an excellent function and really improves my enjoyment of the model output discussion. :)

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Agreed

some people don't think outside the box that this is a public forum for everyone to read and i bet that there are a lot of people discusted with some of the comments on here sometimes,this is a well respected site/forum(to me anyway) and i will continue to contribute on here regardless,anyway, nuff said,be nice guys:)

sorry for derailing a tad

anyway back to the MOD discussion,the trend to me looks the same and has been for some days,has the atlantic broke through yet,NO

18z so far,as you where.

I think it's time

the mods clamped down hard on the repeat offenders and give those that are posting useful information regarding the models a breather. 

paul Sherwood?

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5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The SSW effects are likely to kick in quickly,  but are just out of reach from the models just yet. The cold this week is from the current trop set up. The displaced strong trop vortex has allowed this as I pointed out earlier. The 100hPa day 10 picture shows no vortex from the Pacific - Siberia to Eurasia. Perfect for a large block tropospherically somewhere in that region......

Cheers Chionomaniac . Hopefully we should to start to see weather porn around days 10 to 15 . Like some in the GEFS earlier . 🙂

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8 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I've added quite a few posters to my ignore list over the last few days. It's an excellent function and really improves my enjoyment of the model output discussion. :)

A centimetre or two maybe for these parts on Tuesday, although EURO4 sees no lying snow, even in a lot of upland Pennine areas.

18020612_0412.gif

The curse of the internet and echo chambers, soon we’ll have two forums in one, one hyping things that end up not being delivered by 0h and the other saying ‘nothing to see’ and then being surprised when there is!

Edited by ukpaul

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

18z almost completes the Atlantic crashing & burning around day 5...

3ADC47C3-C0DF-4C39-A470-FEF7B9C8EF53.thumb.png.1c139bdb61802e2717e7f8e9e40a3b6a.png

lets see if the next 48 hours can break the next attack down ...

Steve whats the snow event looking like for thursday friday!!same as 12z?

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14 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Maybe these moaners have accepted reality?

You cannot deny that there is an ever increasing downgrade in this so called "cold spell" if you took some of the more "enthusiastic" posters on here at gospel, we'd be knee deep in snow for weeks.

I cannot see anything more than a 2-3 day chilly period early this coming week. The ECM has been pushing mild again in its latter stages for several runs now. The 12z would have my area in double figures next weekend. The GFS still shows some nice charts but I fully expect it to back down and join the ECM in the next 48 hours or so at the most.

#Wake-up and smell the coffee

I think most have moved on from that friend. We're now chasing the other BIGGER dragon.

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22 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Not to go off topic too much here but I didn't see one person in here go overboard and say plenty of snow was expected this week as you have claimed but on that comment this week has yet to commence and at the moment parts of Scotland (which I would say is enjoying best winter since 2010), NI and possibly north of England are looking quite good in regard to snowy periods over coming week starting from tomorrow night. For the cold, we are looking at uppers of -10/11 into eastern England for a period of at least 36 hours which I would say isn't the norm especially over last few winters. I would say your comment is quite wrong in that regard. Anyway, much to look forward to over next few days and more so interest continues to build for the rest of this month and into March with the expected SSW event (which is looking mightly impressive even the strat gods on Twitter are seriously impressed).

My post was nothing to do with this week..it was in relation to the post about IF and the time frame for the effects of any SSW. Thanks.

Crewe - spot on.

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37 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

What a dour experience the last 20 minutes was reading some of the dross posted in this forum.

Some of the best Synoptics and potential  we’ve seen for years and some (the same 2 or 3 newer members) seem steadfastly determined to spread their doom and gloom, for reasons only known to themselves. To be honest, I don’t really know why they bother to come on the forum because they make no effort to contribute constructively or attempt to learn. Just to nitpick and moan.

This is obviously not a dig at those ‘a little less glass half full’, who post objectively. 

 

I couldn' t agree more. s4L.   I have never used the ignore button in all my 15 years on here but I think the time may be fast approaching. Not because people views don't match mine but simply because those post are so often meteorologically incorrect.  

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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10 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I've added quite a few posters to my ignore list over the last few days. It's an excellent function and really improves my enjoyment of the model output discussion. :)

How does one block certain posters?

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Steve whats the snow event looking like for thursday friday!!same as 12z?

No change - borderline ATM :)

could be a snow sandwich with a bit of rain in the middle

interesting that GFS is leading the way ATM !

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No change - borderline ATM :)

could be a snow sandwich with a bit of rain in the middle

interesting that GFS is leading the way ATM !

Lol not seen one of those snow sandwiches in a while!!very rare i must say!!hopefully tuesdays front packs a bit more power before then!!

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No change - borderline ATM :)

could be a snow sandwich with a bit of rain in the middle

interesting that GFS is leading the way ATM !

I also think it’s easier to see the ‘blocked’ evolution on the 6hour gfs frames than the ecm 24 hour ones - always looks a bit more extreme (whichever direction the models are headed)

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z almost completes the Atlantic crashing & burning around day 5...

3ADC47C3-C0DF-4C39-A470-FEF7B9C8EF53.thumb.png.1c139bdb61802e2717e7f8e9e40a3b6a.png

lets see if the next 48 hours can break the next attack down ...

These attacks are needed though as they are triggers for further residual Hudson Bay vortex destruction in the longer term. We could get the best of both worlds if they do stay west though.

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I think most on this forum have smelt the tension in the air over the last few days. This is mainly due to the snowless winters of the last few years suffered by many a cold lover. This really is last chance saloon for this winter. Oh dear! Have I just added to the tension :)

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10 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

How does one block certain posters?

Just click on your name and go to settings, then type in the name of the poster you'd like to ignore. I can't recommend it highly enough, I think there are about 30 names on my ignore list :D

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