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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Well I can't agree. The majority of models don't look largely dry for the majority of the UK to me. Only the ECM, which is the least progressive with the Atlantic fronts pushing in.

They do look dry for our area, only chance of a few flurries on Monday off the N Sea, Tuesday, forget it, front will make it no where near this far East

ECM1-96.GIF?01-0

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

They said the same in 2010...

Did they? That was looking like a severe wintry spell from the off!

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Just now, Nick L said:

Did they? That was looking like a severe wintry spell from the off!

ECM 120 - looking pretty good for PPN to me...

21AB75C3-8DD7-400B-B8A6-A64144FFB6E6.thumb.png.1f815d8971d408410f444bbc426e615f.png

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

They do look dry for our area, only chance of a few flurries on Monday off the N Sea, Tuesday, forget it, front will make it no where near this far East

ECM1-96.GIF?01-0

I'll wage there be more than a few flurrys from this evolving set up..

Pop ups in the flow writen all over it..

Again as the flow establishes...watch for ppn gain.

Upgrades likely as early as tonights 18z suite..

Anyways some very notable weather on the horizon....

Edited by tight isobar

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 - looking pretty good for PPN to me...

21AB75C3-8DD7-400B-B8A6-A64144FFB6E6.thumb.png.1f815d8971d408410f444bbc426e615f.png

Agree...

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 - looking pretty good for PPN to me...

21AB75C3-8DD7-400B-B8A6-A64144FFB6E6.thumb.png.1f815d8971d408410f444bbc426e615f.png

Not to me...

5a735b540c8e1_Maps01-02-201818(1).thumb.png.1b35fa50c95fef90d1bd1ddd11001749.png

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Defo westward correction on the ECM for Tuesday's output

Today's                                                         Yesterdays

 

ECM1-120_aoz3.GIFECM1-144_bht0.GIF

Then come weds the cold firmly in place :cold:

ECM0-144_qgk1.GIF

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Did they? That was looking like a severe wintry spell from the off!

To be fair I do recall that myself. The very cold weather was nailed but a lot of people were predicting rather less snowfall than we actually got. 

January 2010 was a disaster. That intense little low that stalled over SE England on the Tuesday wasn't even predicted properly by the metoffice on the Sunday farmers forecast! 

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I'll wage there be more than a few flurrys from this evolving set up..

Pop ups in the flow writen all over it..

Again as the flow establishes...watch for ppn gain.

Upgrades likely as early as tonights 18z suite..

Anyways some very notable weather on the horizon....

Yes, surely a few flurries here on Sunday too, loads few inches for SE though, Tuesday though Pants

ECM1-72.GIF?01-0

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Just now, Nick L said:

Did they? That was looking like a severe wintry spell from the off!

My memory the same as Steve. People talked about a dry northerly, and a short time later we had virtually the whole of the UK snow covered. The models never have a good grip of the impact of the water we are surrounded by. We are not looking at a high taking up residence over the uk - as a result the outlook is not dry especially as air streams look likely to converge, adding to instability. Far too early to have a handle on precipitation amounts of course. 

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3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Not to me...

5a735b540c8e1_Maps01-02-201818(1).thumb.png.1b35fa50c95fef90d1bd1ddd11001749.png

Got to agree here. Think they maybe a little bit of hope casting regarding snowfall potential next week. Think away from eastern facing coasts most of us will be more white from harsh frosts than snowcover. 

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, surely a few flurries here on Sunday too, loads few inches for SE though, Tuesday though Pants

ECM1-72.GIF?01-0

Atm(tuesday). Any gradients of big potential,...in regards overheads!

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The ECM stalls that front up the western side of the UK which is pretty consistent with previous runs. As for the east, SUnday looks good with possibly a disturbance moving close to the south east but the wind veers more south easterly for Monday/Tuesday which would probably mean dry and sunny with little sea track to develop showers. That said, best of the bunch for trying to re-engage an easterly flow.

ECM1-144.GIF?01-0

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44 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is stunning bitterly cold across the SE in particular and EA the T+72 FAX chart with the all important human input is mouth watering. Dare I say maybe Thames streamer territory. 

442DB536-083E-43B0-A59F-B6F33175CC3E.thumb.gif.7633470ffc33fdf87fd26e4b89035087.gif

That front over Ireland looks interesting for us in west Wales nevertheless that's still a cold chart even if it will be dry. Could well be heading for the coldest weather we've seen for several years! 

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12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Did they? That was looking like a severe wintry spell from the off!

Yes they did, exactly the same thing was being said.

Edited by ribster

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7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Not to me...

5a735b540c8e1_Maps01-02-201818(1).thumb.png.1b35fa50c95fef90d1bd1ddd11001749.png

Yes, 500mb profile far too shallow - I remember this in (cant remember whether it was March or Feb 13, there was never going to be a complete white out and anyone who suggested so was rounded on, its not just about lapse rates from surface to 850, to get them really towering clouds that deliver tonkings, you need steep lapse rates to 500mb, to get them cloud tops up into the teens in terms of 1000's feet.

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144..epic!!..

-12s... into quadrant south east...

And then the snow alarm my begin to ring as the flow is steadfast.......

ECM0-144.gif

ECM1-144 (1).giftxt book height swerve...the cold wants to make uk its home!!!

Atlantic looks on and shys away...

Edited by tight isobar

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10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM stalls that front up the western side of the UK which is pretty consistent with previous runs. As for the east, SUnday looks good with possibly a disturbance moving close to the south east but the wind veers more south easterly for Monday/Tuesday which would probably mean dry and sunny with little sea track to develop showers. That said, best of the bunch for trying to re-engage an easterly flow.

ECM1-144.GIF?01-0

With sea temperatures almost at their coldest that could be great news for here in Pembrokeshire as well as other western coastal areas who so far have seen diddly squat  :good:

Edited by Dafydd Tomos

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

South east looks the sweet spot for the snow showers ...:yahoo::rofl:

IMG_0490.GIF

Well like or loathe..

Its gonna prime in this set up!!!

@southern-england

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