Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Excuse my ignorance, seen “qtr” pop up a few times today.. what is it? TIA

Delete

Edited February 4, 2018 by chicken soup

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

42 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

Next weeks cold spell is melting away rapidly has to be said. Also nothing really cold in the ECM ensembles but nothing really mild either so no sign of any prolonged cold spell on the horizon just yet.  The  Scandi high continues to develop and keeps the cold air from moving in.

**Keeps the cold Atlantic air from moving in  

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

A cold outlook from NOAA for February

Greenland and the Balkans anomonously warm - for a change

Best chart of the day that one. 

[SteveB]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Excuse my ignorance, seen “qtr” pop up a few times today.. what is it? TIA

I'm glad you asked that Karlos.  I thought it was quick trop response. 

Bluearmy had confirmed this  

Edited February 4, 2018 by SteveB

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

A cold outlook from NOAA for February

Greenland and the Balkans anomonously warm - for a change

Greenland and Svalbard will be anonymously warm the amount of HLB that will be over them ? 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

A cold outlook from NOAA for February

Greenland and the Balkans anomonously warm - for a change

Cfs says a cold month ahead - blow torch around the corner then .........

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs mean doesn’t show much appetite for a qtr. of course it still a fair way away

Neither does the ecm op. Are we chasing rainbows again lol. 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Neither does the ecm op. Are we chasing rainbows again lol. 

Yes, rather a poor ECM Op with no sign of a proper cold spell courtesy of Northern blocking. Mostly cold zonal throughout as a segment of the fragmented Trop pv sits near Greenland spewing out low after low.

[Purga]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cfs says a cold month ahead - blow torch around the corner then .........

Reverse psychology Nick? Exeter seduced as well ?

PS:

Edited February 4, 2018 by Purga

[Mokidugway]

13 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Could anybody tell me the difference between mist and fog

Yes , you get fog in London and mist in the northwest whoever gets what they'll moan about it and demand the other. 

[karlos1983]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Quick trop response 

Thanks, so would that graphic you posted be a representation of the ecm operational output? i.e. liable to change should the next run show a qtr?  

Thats a question rather than a statement by the way. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

The ecm is becoming a big concern for me with regards to some meaningful cold and snow in the medium to long term. The last couple of ecm ext ens for debilt show no appetite for deep cold by the middle of February and the control from this morning went very mild towards days 13 to 15. Now the ecm 12z op which conveniently nobody is talking about throws out a nightmare of a run. This can only mean one of two things. Either this is going to be another major bust for UK cold or a delayed tropospheric response - dtr lol. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by blizzard81

[karlos1983]

I actually think it’s probably way to early to expect to see a clear path forward following this likely SSW. It’s not even happened yet. Everything I’ve been reading from the strat pro’s suggest a quick response is expected, but quite how that plays out of course in the trop is anyone’s guess right now quite frankly. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

Surely no coincidence that the ecm shows the ramping up of the pv to our north at exactly the same time the ssw sets in. Hope it's not one of those ocassions where an ssw actually verifies at completely the wrong time for us and in turn scuppers a potential cold spell for the UK. That would just be our luck wouldn't it? 

[shotski]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I actually think it’s probably way to early to expect to see a clear path forward following this likely SSW. It’s not even happened yet. Everything I’ve been reading from the strat pro’s suggest a quick response is expected, but quite how that plays out of course in the trop is anyone’s guess right now quilte frankly. 

Agree, I think it’s probably too early to see anything in the operationals just yet. Certainly there was a lot of interesting perps in the GEFS members. 

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm is becoming a big concern for me with regards to some meaningful cold and snow in the medium to long term. The last couple of ecm ext ens for debilt show no appetite for deep cold by the middle of February and the control from this morning went very mild towards days 13 to 15. Now the ecm 12z op which conveniently nobody is talking about throws out a nightmare of a run. This can only mean one of two things. Either this is going to be another major bust for UK cold or a delayed tropospheric response - dtr lol. 

How many times has ECM promised and failed to deliver.... Given its record I'd regard a warm run at day 10 as a near guarantee of a 1991 type cold spell. 

[mb018538]

I wouldn’t get too hung up at the moment...it’s still too early to say with any certainty what is going to happen mid month. Just sit and wait I’m afraid!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

How many times has ECM promised and failed to deliver.... Given its record I'd regard a warm run at day 10 as a near guarantee of a 1991 type cold spell. 

That did make me chuckle You are correct about the ecm not just this winter but last year as well. However, the fact that it is determined to play pantomime villain this time probably means it is correct lol. 

[Leon1]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

How many times has ECM promised and failed to deliver.... Given its record I'd regard a warm run at day 10 as a near guarantee of a 1991 type cold spell. 

i dont think it will be like 1991, more like 1962 in my mind.

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

How many times has ECM promised and failed to deliver.... Given its record I'd regard a warm run at day 10 as a near guarantee of a 1991 type cold spell. 

maybe its a bit like Yodel - if you moan enough, they will deliver eventually... 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is a mostly cold run with only a few fleeting milder interludes. There will be wind, rain, sleet and snow, hail and probably thunder, frosts, ice, mist and fog where winds fall light and some sunshine during the next ten days..that just about covers all bases i think!

Edited February 4, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks rather unsettled and breezy whether it would be cold enough for much snow remains to be seen

[A.J]

18 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

maybe its a bit like Yodel - if you moan enough, they will deliver eventually... 

no we most certainly wont........................(I do a bit of yodel couriering amongst other things, and your parcel's now in the skip) lol

somewhat of an IMBYism but tuesday into wednesday holds more interest to the west country looking at the latest FAX charts (thanks Nick S/Karlos for posting the chart/tip off)

[Froze were the Days]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks rather unsettled and breezy whether it would be cold enough for much snow remains to be seen

The world could be hit by a massive meteorite and that Azores high pressure would still be in situ...almost guaranteed whilst looking at the UKMO 168z extended the first thing you'll notice is THAT staring you in the face.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

The world could be hit by a massive meteorite and that Azores high pressure would still be in situ...almost guaranteed whilst looking at the UKMO 168z extended the first thing you'll notice is THAT staring you in the face.

That's because it's an Azores high pressure and it's in the Azores lol That's where it will always be!