Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[shaky]

Just now, nick sussex said:

ECM and GFS versus the UKMO at T120hrs .

Trough disruption further west on the former .

Is ecm better nick!!

[Allseasons-Si]

We have trough disruption at 120,that wasn't there on the 00z..

Edited February 4, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[SMU]

ECM 120 is now far fetched away from the return of the Atlantic- I appreciate that obviously if your over Ireland then technically you are in Atlantic flow - How in the mains for England it’s being swerved away creating a snow event...

[Sparkiee storm]

Tuesday's front on the charts reach as far as the Midlands, then seems to stick around there for the majority of the day and slowly weaken as it sits there. Expecting it to already be mostly light when it reaches the Midlands though. Also Thurs/Fri event looks a bit sketchy and in a bit of a mess for now.

Edited February 4, 2018 by Sparkiee storm

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Next weeks cold spell is melting away rapidly has to be said. Also nothing really cold in the ECM ensembles but nothing really mild either so no sign of any prolonged cold spell on the horizon just yet.  The  Scandi high continues to develop and keeps the cold air from moving in.

Edited February 4, 2018 by - 40*C

[Mucka]

JMA 12 in line with ECM.

I think we will have to wait until tomorrow evening at the earliest before the models fully get a grip of how/if the trough disrupts but below is yesterday's JMA 12z 120h compared with today's.

[Frosty.]

The second half of Feb could be EPIC...although I'm looking far ahead, this would tie in with exeter's  current thinking in that range which must be due to what GloSea5 / Mogreps show but is now starting to pop up in the extended GEFS.

[Mucka]

ECM 168

With every Atlantic push past the mid term the models have had all the energy heading NE and little trough disruption/splitting of energy.

And every time it has come into 120h range they have started to pick up on it. 

With that in mind it is hard to take anything past 120/144 at face value as far the battle-lines between milder Atlantic air and colder continental air.

That said, this evenings output is disappointing if you do take it at face value

Edited February 4, 2018 by Mucka

[terrier]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The second half of Feb could be EPIC...although I'm looking far ahead, this would tie in with exeter's  current thinking in that range which must be due to what GloSea5 / Mogreps show but is now starting to pop up in the extended GEFS.

But by then frosty the sun and days will be much longer 

[Daniel*]

Take anything past T120 with a truckload of salt the trend of the last day or two has been to sharpen things up. I think we could manage a widespread snow event as a last hurrah, from this cold spell..? 

[nick sussex]

Interesting fax charts for T60hrs.

The UKMO have a second occlusion moving into Wales and sw England this heads south something to keep an eye on if this verifies.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 minutes ago, terrier said:

But by then frosty the sun and days will be much longer 

But still long enough for widespread snow and below zero temps and ice days. Its middle of Feb not middle of April.

[snowfish1]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

I will happily take the GEFS control.

I wonder how many GEFS runs will bring upper temps below -15C over the next few days in F.I? Maybe a few -18C!

Think February is looking very different for various reasons other posters have highlighted liking the retreat west of the aZores high.  hope you are feeling better now TEITS

Edited February 4, 2018 by snowfish1

[Snowy L]

9 minutes ago, terrier said:

But by then frosty the sun and days will be much longer 

I dont think the snow will care when its -5C outside.

[Leon1]

i know all (well most) of us want this massive cold blast but it's a long way off yet, so need for tensions to rise....

 

edit: i mean the one around the 20th not next week 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Leon1

[terrier]

4 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

But still long enough for widespread snow and below zero temps and ice days. Its middle of Feb not middle of April.

It was a tongue in cheek comment I was been sarcastic. 

[nick sussex]

It’s perfectly possible to get ice days in the UK right upto the end of February.

I’ve had ice days here even in early March and I’m not at the top of a mountain. Yes decent elevation around 1100 feet but factor in how much further south I am.

Its about getting the right synoptics . 

[karlos1983]

Yes intersting Fax chart for +60 as @nick sussex mentions. 

Potential for snow from that!

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by karlos1983

[itsnowjoke]

Could anybody tell me the difference between mist and fog

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes intersting Fax chart for +60 as @nick sussex mentions. 

 

The earlier one had a few troughs in the flow and then this occlusion at T60 hrs. 

There’s still some uncertainty with this and the troughs so nearer the time we’ll see. These fax charts have a tendency to change a lot between outputs with these smaller scale features.

[inghams85]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes intersting Fax chart for +60 as @nick sussex mentions. 

Potential for snow from that!

 

Yeah there's a warning out already for that for showers after the main front in these areas 

[bluearmy]

The gefs mean doesn’t show much appetite for a qtr. of course it still a fair way away

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs mean doesn’t show much appetite for a qtr. of course it still a fair way away

Excuse my ignorance, seen “qtr” pop up a few times today.. what is it? TIA

Edited February 4, 2018 by karlos1983

[Purga]

A cold outlook from NOAA for February

Greenland and the Balkans anomonously warm - for a change

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Excuse my ignorance, seen “qtr” pop up a few times today.. what is it? TIA

Quick trop response