Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

Recommended Posts

Here's my cherry pick from the GEFS 6z..I can safely say these would make February 2018 a month to remember for coldies!...smokin  charts!:D:cold-emoji:

As it is, this month looks like being predominantly cold anyway but these would be the icing on the cake!

1_318_850tmp.png

1_318_2mtmpmax.png

20_342_850tmp.png

20_342_2mtmpmax.png

20_366_850tmp.png

20_366_2mtmpmax.png

20_384_850tmp.png

0515-610x340.jpg

mask-rd.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The trop response varies . Sometimes the reversal propagates down quickly , it’s also effected by the current state of the AO.

Theres a stronger response in terms of the NH pattern if you’re in a more positive or neutral AO state which does seem logical because you in a sense have more explosive energy.

If you’re already in a negative AO phase you have less energy to play with .

The current state of the AO at onset of the SSW looks around neutral so hopefully a bigger shuffling of the NH pattern.

It’s certainly showing  positive around 12th  

But there is a clear direction of travel post SSW

E9C16B03-DE34-44A4-9B58-396B65126310.thumb.jpeg.55c46d159e1ac31261e8d4e66adbf8b9.jpeg 3CB82C2D-0D22-464F-A783-3CB41FBEDFDA.thumb.jpeg.988ad703d99f9bc40be2d3ee78b6bdd5.jpeg C2969FB5-9291-4A47-B5FD-BDC5424A4471.thumb.jpeg.eb7d862095b6a1d5ac4b2455341fb71a.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Worth keeping an eye over France too to see if the system over there throws a trough north - November 2010 style

Well noted MWB- And for once micro mild sector could do us a favour(south east).. to give precip a nudge and 

Screenshot_2018-02-04-14-56-33.png

tumblr_lyirp3h0T31qao1lqo1_500.gifalthough on that note.....

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think that one would expect an almost immediate trop response. After all the vortex in the strat has been weakened by a typical wave 1 top down process. However, the wave 2 cut is trop induced with the surge of warm air right into the heart of the Arctic as demonstrated below:

ECMOPNH00_24_1.thumb.png.cd0090db8f18c660a42ffabfbc93d92c.png

 

This propagates splitting upward into the strat starting at the lower levels first - day 4 at 100hPa (lower strat) the split is evident 

ecmwf100f120.thumb.gif.4b82937e97a07c7ad66278448792c2c9.gif

 

But at 10hPa only the beginnings of a split are in evidence

ecmwf10f120.thumb.gif.3854229f3f208c093897c005aac1c92d.gif

But by day 7 the split and warming are well underway at this level too

ecmwf10f192.thumb.gif.b7941b4afdeb3c3bf1aa72f6706c26f6.gif

 

And look at the contrast between days 7-8 with the mean zonal mean winds as the upper strat vortex gets ripped apart

ecmwfzm_u_f192.thumb.gif.f8b735b8b0b13786c3bd68bef0a7a87a.gif

ecmwfzm_u_f216-1.thumb.gif.123874f59c00bf9077c8837c1dfaa8f8.gif

 

And by day we see further descending of these negative u anomalies suggesting an immediate trop response from day10+

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.gif.69284411d01a9271a7bf130b371c8dd7.gif

If the MJO stays aligned and the NINA dips then we are in as good as place as any to benefit from any subsequent high lat blocking.

 

 

Very interesting. Probably good for somewhere in Europe. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the 12z Thursday's front looks a bit further east, with the cold air ahead of it further east. However, the air behind the front is colder (-8 uppers more widespread). 

Blimey. Where is everyone?!

Edited by MattStoke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

On the 12z Thursday's front looks a bit further east, with the cold air ahead of it further east. However, the air behind the front is colder (-8 uppers more widespread). 

Blimey. Where is everyone?!

Your on your own Matt.. but keep the posts coming.. I’m listening 😜👍🏻

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

On the 12z Thursday's front looks a bit further east, with the cold air ahead of it further east. However, the air behind the front is colder (-8 uppers more widespread). 

Blimey. Where is everyone?!

Lamp posts are just about to switch on...I suspect most are getting the best view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

It’s certainly showing  positive around 12th  

But there is a clear direction of travel post SSW

E9C16B03-DE34-44A4-9B58-396B65126310.thumb.jpeg.55c46d159e1ac31261e8d4e66adbf8b9.jpeg 3CB82C2D-0D22-464F-A783-3CB41FBEDFDA.thumb.jpeg.988ad703d99f9bc40be2d3ee78b6bdd5.jpeg C2969FB5-9291-4A47-B5FD-BDC5424A4471.thumb.jpeg.eb7d862095b6a1d5ac4b2455341fb71a.jpeg

That’s even better news then. Should be a bigger trop response.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

On the 12z Thursday's front looks a bit further east, with the cold air ahead of it further east. However, the air behind the front is colder (-8 uppers more widespread). 

Blimey. Where is everyone?!

Some 148 members viewing the chat right now!

On topic you're right, even though the timing of the front is a good 6 hours in front of the 0z, the warmer uppers seemed to be more efficiently mixed out bringing quite heavy snow to central areas. If we can see the warm uppers mix out a little earlier we could end with a widespread event.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

On the 12z Thursday's front looks a bit further east, with the cold air ahead of it further east. However, the air behind the front is colder (-8 uppers more widespread). 

Blimey. Where is everyone?!

The South-East contingent is busy radar watching and running to the window every 30 seconds. 

That and the fact the 12z GFS has barely changed at all from it's previous run, there's not a whole lot to comment on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The South-East contingent is busy radar watching and running to the window every 30 seconds. 

That and the fact the 12z GFS has barely changed at all from it's previous run, there's not a whole lot to comment on. 

Quite amazed how few changes there are up +180. Here we begin to see a much deeper low develop near Newfoundland bringing greater WAA into Greenland which could benefit us later on; in the realms of FI tho.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a definite trend setting that is showing the storm track being pushed further north than modelled a couple of days ago:

gfs-0-168.png?12gfs-0-198.png?12gfs-0-222.png?12

As such it may not even end up being that unsettled - a bit wetter and windier in the NW, but nothing too noteworthy. After mid-month is when the real fun and games may begin, just have to take one step backwards in order to take two forwards!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Looking on ukmo nothing wintry after Tuesday ,Icelandic low and Azores High look to be in charge bringing Westerly winds and only snow on high ground.back to chasing rainbows.Pass me a bucket:nonono:

 

 

 

 

We will be chasing obliterated PV blobs soon enough, fear not 

DFA5E3C9-81EA-408F-B779-828A0D4EC539.thumb.png.d2f279afd730b7c64a748421ba3850e3.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

With the ‘warm sectors’ still evident, I suspect most will end up watching week 2 with more interest than week 1

Definitely watching the second half of GFS runs now with interest to see what may happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And here is the start of what we're All gonna be chasing 😁 And probley arguing 😛

IMG_1247.PNG

In comes the easterlies 😁IMG_1248.thumb.PNG.d4566f2651de37d8d9ceb1b7aa21eb0e.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this a sign of things incoming for us cold lovers ? Let's hope so 

IMG_1251.PNG

IMG_1252.PNG

PS - Am I alone in the MOD thread 😞

Edited by ICE COLD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And at 264 we have proper lift off

gfsnh-0-264.png?12

12 hours later these are the uppers

gfsnh-1-276.png?12

OK, 15th February.  Let's make a note of the date and see how this pans out over the next few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...