Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Frosty.]

Well, what a run, I can't contain my enthusiasm! cold shots galore with frosts, ice and snow showers / frontal rain / sleet and snow rapidly following each other across the uk on the Gfs 12z hardly drawing breath before the next cold shot sweeps in from the w / nw with extra zing..exciting stuff if you're in the firing line, which most of us would be!!

Potentially the most interesting / exciting period of this winter so far on a nationwide scale is almost upon us..starting with very cold air seeping in from the east through the first half of next week with severe frosts and even snow for some areas ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄!!

[minus 9]

I agree frosty. Keep the post's going. Not a bad week at all for the uk. I'm sure some surprises will pop up.

[Somersetwatcher]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

It is quite feasible for snow as has been discussed in here before and it is a large land mass with no temp modification upward. Unlike us surrounded by the sea

....elevation? just a thought.

[Polar Maritime]

Many posts are once again being hidden, Please post in here only what the models are showing. And use the model banter/moan thread for everything else.

Thanks.

Edited February 3, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Singularity]

The 12z GFS is a poor effort in lower-res ('FI') in terms of the tropospheric response but for now it's the nearer-term adjustments that interest me most. Some good progress made compared to the previous few runs, hopefully not only to be undone by the 18z or 00z (once wary, always wary)

Edited February 3, 2018 by Singularity

[bobbydog]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is this the SE thread? Quite a few posts relating to SE this and SE that oh and all snow in the SE, Thames streamer for the SE

May as well have a model output discussion just for the SE areas.

funny isnt it? there are lots of posts regarding all areas of the country yet as soon as the south east is mentioned, out come the posts such as this. by population concentration, most people live towards the south east of england therefore statistically, there will be more posts from that area. i'm originally from northumberland- the largest and least dense populated county and the number of netweather members from there reflects this. 

add in 2 factors- the south east will be the first area affected by this upcoming cold spell, so naturally, it is a current subject of discussion.

secondly, some of us in the far south east corner, haven't seen lying snow for 5 years so forgive us if we feel the need to discuss it....

[Summer Sun]

Thursday might see temps recover enough to give more in the way of rain rather than snow for England and Wales

Doesn't last long though as colder air soon returns

[comet]

There has certainly been correction back west from the models this afternoon so far. I'm wondering are we likely to see these small incremental changes as we move through the working week.

[Methuselah]

Just has wee shufty through the latest GFS run...Chances for showery sleet/snow in the SE anytime between tomorrow and Tuesday, and something more organised moving from the WNW into more northern & western areas on Thursday...After that, who knows what's going to happen!

PS: Southeast England is part of the United Kingdom!

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday might see temps recover enough to give more in the way of rain rather than snow for England and Wales

Doesn't last long though as colder air soon returns

Potential for a rare snow-rain-snow event?

[Sky Full]

Widespread overnight frosts every night next week according to the GFS....

   

   

   

.......so we will have the cold 'in' so to speak.  All we need now are a few other pieces to fall into place to bring some white stuff to the majority - at some point anyway.  

Its not likely to encourage any more daffs to show their faces, at any rate.

[danthetan]

GFS showing frontal snow and then snow showers affecting Pembs Tuesday into Wednesday. Pembrokeshire dangler will be in full swing with a keen North wind blowing down the Irish sea.

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

funny isnt it? there are lots of posts regarding all areas of the country yet as soon as the south east is mentioned, out come the posts such as this. by population concentration, most people live towards the south east of england therefore statistically, there will be more posts from that area. i'm originally from northumberland- the largest and least dense populated county and the number of netweather members from there reflects this. 

add in 2 factors- the south east will be the first area affected by this upcoming cold spell, so naturally, it is a current subject of discussion.

secondly, some of us in the far south east corner, haven't seen lying snow for 5 years so forgive us if we feel the need to discuss it....

Agreed it seems much of the agro comes from those outside SE all I see in polar northwesterlies no offence to @northwestsnow of which I have no issue with. Is it’s great for NW with all the excitement, while often we are subject to miserable cold wet days further south...

50% or the UKs population lives within this circle. I myself in my location have not seen a covering in 5 years yes you heard that right only dustings since. Understandably some are putting an IMBY spin on it, we are all guilty of this? Keep it related to models and there’s nothing wrong with it, perhaps it’s more suited to regionals.. the upcoming week has opportunity for all areas not just SE England.

Edited February 3, 2018 by Daniel*

[MattStoke]

Damn South East. Hogging all the snow. When will us in the north and west ever see snow? ;-) 

More seriously. The latest Aperge kills Tuesday's front dead across the far north of England. Seems that front still isn't resolved, as other models bring it right across the UK, though weakening and become patchy across eastern parts of England, including the East Midlands. 

[A.J]

a pleasing 12z GFS run for cold and snow lovers, it seems to have had a groundhog day realisation in the hi-res with at least 4 LP's traversing close to the UK with warm sectors in each LP being squeezed and mixed out.....Now, I'm not suggesting this is as it will be, but on the off chance this verifies, a good bulk of the UK would be looking at 4 possible snow events in the next 10 days, a very unusual occurence and certainly not standard UK winter fare.....Much to look forward to for model watchers and sky watchers alike

[chicken soup]

I think were about to see the old adage..get the cold in first and the snow will follow exposed for the BS that it is....hi res arpege kills tuesdays front and thurs fri is looking like rain...dont see any other oppurtunitys in the models except maybe a slight dusting on the south east...then more than likely back to mild.

 

[Neiller22]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

I think were about to see the old adage..get the cold in first and the snow will follow exposed for the BS that it is....hi res arpege kills tuesdays front and thurs fri is looking like rain...dont see any other oppurtunitys in the models except maybe a slight dusting on the south east...then more than likely back to mild.

 

If there ever was two very contrasting views. Hard for novices to make head or tail of what’s happening. 

[Cheese Rice]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Agreed it seems much of the agro comes from those outside SE all I see in polar northwesterlies no offence to @northwestsnow of which I have no issue with. Is it’s great for NW with all the excitement, while often we are subject to miserable cold wet days further south...

50% or the UKs population lives within this circle. I myself in my location have not seen a covering in 5 years yes you heard that right only dustings since. Understandably some are putting an IMBY spin on it, we are all guilty of this? Keep it related to models and there’s nothing wrong with it, perhaps it’s more suited to regionals.. the upcoming week has opportunity for all areas not just SE England.

Yes five years and counting unfortunately.

Though realistically looking at the current models I'm not expecting any lying snow in this part of the world, the model don't show that. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by Cheese Rice

[A.J]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

I think were about to see the old adage..get the cold in first and the snow will follow exposed for the BS that it is....hi res arpege kills tuesdays front and thurs fri is looking like rain...dont see any other oppurtunitys in the models except maybe a slight dusting on the south east...then more than likely back to mild.

 

Are we looking at the same GFS run?.....I've honestly just gone back to make sure I wasn't viewing an old GFS output!,,,No, its the 12z run available on the NetWeather and we'll have to agree to disagree as I think you're interpreting the run incorrectly as it clearly shows several opportunities for snowfall from the reliable right out to the far reaches of FI....It clearly shows an easterly based feed for the next 48-72 hours and then for the rest of the run is either a Pm or rPm feed, never at any stage does the output even hint at going back to mild.....The caveat of course is the likelyhood of verification

[That ECM]

T72 and people still bicker!!

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Are we looking at the same GFS run?.....I've honestly just gone back to make sure I wasn't viewing an old GFS output!,,,No, its the 12z run available on the NetWeather and we'll have to agree to disagree as I think you're interpreting the run incorrectly as it clearly shows several opportunities for snowfall from the reliable right out to the far reaches of FI....It clearly shows an easterly based feed for the next 48-72 hours and then for the rest of the run is either a Pm or rPm feed, never at any stage does the output even hint at going back to mild.....The caveat of course is the likelyhood of verification

And its a very big caveat...pm air has proven to be garbage even here in the northwest..gfs is wrong about the front on tuesday...arpege is a higher res model ...and thurs is as i said looking like rain.

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T72 and people still bicker!!

Blue is the new mild....lol

[Ice Day]

GFS and ECM at 72.  Notice that the milder sector has completely filled in on the ECM. 

GFS  ECM 

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T72 and people still bicker!!

Lack of snow is probably one reason why a lot of people aren't or won't be happy. Not all of us like cold for cold's sake.

[MattStoke]

Just now, chicken soup said:

And its a very big caveat...pm air has proven to be garbage even here in the northwest..gfs is wrong about the front on tuesday...arpege is a higher res model ...and thurs is as i said looking like rain.

Garbage? Many in the NW have seen snowfall after snowfall from PM flows this winter. Large snowfalls at that.

You know the GFS is wrong how?

Thursday is well off and this afternoon’s model updates have increased the wintry risk toward the end of the week.