Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Oh what do we have here? T+36 I myself will be watching fax charts closely in the coming days. It’s the best way of having a good idea of precip, and Euro4 is now getting within range. 

Decaying occluded frontal systems being eroded by high pressure giving very light and patchy precipitation dying out.

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Oh what do we have here? T+36 I myself will be watching fax charts closely in the coming days. It’s the best way of having a good idea of precip, and Euro4 is now getting within range. 

Where did that occlusion pop up from?

Very much as we were discussing earlier, Daniel.

[snowblind]

In my experience the models tend to underestimate the strength of the block and will vary run to run anyway. With that in mind if it looks as if the block will retreat towards the end of the week I would expect this to get pushed back a few days. So I would say the cold spell will probably last into next weekend and possibly beyond even though the models might be thinking slightly differently atm.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Oh what do we have here? T+36 I myself will be watching fax charts closely in the coming days. It’s the best way of having a good idea of precip, and Euro4 is now getting within range. 

Yep, been saying that. This will be of interest as well.

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM mean vs Op at 144

 

It does indeed look like just like GFS op progressive. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Mild sector less mild.

It shouldn't even be called a mild sector, more of a less cold sector really.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Decaying occluded frontal systems being eroded by high pressure giving very light and patchy precipitation dying out.

Pressure isn’t high in vicinity of UK.........

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[blizzard81]

The uppers on the day 10 ecm mean are nion identical to this morning's mean at the same time. Conclusion? No downgrade!. 

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yep, been saying that. This will be of interest as well.

That shows a streamer  

Thames streamer I think.........

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[karlos1983]

Some decent news, 120 is where things start to go wrong on the ecm, and you can see clearly on the graph it’s at the top of the ens. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Pressure isn’t high in vicinity of UK.........

The high to the west is causing the frontal systems to lose intensity surely - the PPN is just gonna fizzle out - look at the upper profile on the models - the low heights just practically filling, not enough oomph - you need a proper slider.

[john mac]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Some decent news, 120 is where things start to go wrong on the ecm, and you can see clearly on the graph it’s at the top of the ens. 

As I suspected. Always best to look at the ens before passing judgement. 

[blizzard81]

Just now, john mac said:

As I suspected. Always best to look at the ens before passing judgement. 

The age old question arises again though. The op is higher resolution so has more chance of being correct, especially at 120hrs. 

[john mac]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The age old question arises again though. The op is higher resolution so has more chance of being correct, especially at 120hrs. 

I do agree but as I said earlier, I’d be a lot more worried if the UKMO was showing it.

[Rayth]

Even more pronounced in my area @karlos1983

 

[Mike Poole]

Strat warming getting closer on GFS -  seems like a double warming and a split of the stratospheric PV.  

A nagging doubt though - a split like this will have significant implications for mid-latitude weather down the line, a 'reshuffling of the deck' so to speak, but if we've already got the cold in place, do we want the deck shuffled?

 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The age old question arises again though. The op is higher resolution so has more chance of being correct, especially at 120hrs. 

While true but they’re run at high res at that rather short range but this tapers off further ahead? Unless I’m mistaken one can say decidedly op is off on one - in being overly progressive. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

People have been ramping Tuesday as something special, IMBY as I keep on saying has nothing to do with it as ive said many a time I prefer potent Easterlies to these battlegrounds, I will probably see moore snow than you by Tuesday evening so how can it be IMBY, all anywhere in the SE will see by Tuesday are dustings and one inchers.

I think we’ll be having the big inchers matey! Thames streamer for Monday ? they can deliver big time. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, john mac said:

I do agree but as I said earlier, I’d be a lot more worried if the UKMO was showing it.

I must admit, the ukmo seems to have a good track record at the 96 to 120z timeframe. Even more so in these situations. Infact it could be argued that it has out performed the ecm in similar circumstances at the 4 to 5 day range. 

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Strat warming getting closer on GFS -  seems like a double warming and a split of the stratospheric PV.  

A nagging doubt though - a split like this will have significant implications for mid-latitude weather down the line, a 'reshuffling of the deck' so to speak, but if we've already got the cold in place, do we want the deck shuffled?

 

Daft question this but what's the confirmation like, that far out? Strat charts tend to be better good indicators even at that range? 

[Rayth]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Strat warming getting closer on GFS -  seems like a double warming and a split of the stratospheric PV.  

A nagging doubt though - a split like this will have significant implications for mid-latitude weather down the line, a 'reshuffling of the deck' so to speak, but if we've already got the cold in place, do we want the deck shuffled?

 

Is this an upwell split ? Trop led ? 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I think we’ll be having the big inchers matey! Thames streamer for Monday they can deliver big time. 

They can deliver but usually to deliver big dumpings they need lower 500mb and a strong flow advancing the cold westwards, this is a glancing blow -hope you do get some - like I say you should see something but cant see you getting a right dumping. at the end of next week different story, more potential plus given the timeframe more room for upgrades too.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

lost our upper lows on ecm

Ya barred?

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think we’ll be having the big inchers matey! Thames streamer for Monday ? they can deliver big time. 

I don't think so, Thames streamer normally requires a direct easterly with positive wind shear. There isn't much of a gradient on that chart.

[john mac]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I must admit, the ukmo seems to have a good track record at the 96 to 120z timeframe. Even more so in these situations. Infact it could be argued that it has out performed the ecm in similar circumstances at the 4 to 5 day range. 

I make you right. ECM has been quite poor for the first half of this winter. It will be interesting to see how it manages this tricky pattern