Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[bluearmy]

GEFS showing a continuation of the cold in general and fairly agreed with the eps. I hadn't looked at the larger scale ec46 from yesterday - safe to say that if glosea and mogreps are broadly similar, I can see where Exeter got the theme of their extended from earlier. basically, all output continues to prog low heights into Europe and with cold in situ to begin with, any borderline situations which crop up could end up falling in the right place for coldies.

[Rayth]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

GEFS showing a continuation of the cold in general and fairly agreed with the eps. I hadn't looked at the larger scale ec46 from yesterday - safe to say that if glosea and mogreps are broadly similar, I can see where Exeter got the theme of their extended from earlier. basically, all output continues to prog low heights into Europe and with cold in situ to begin with, any borderline situations which crop up could end up falling in the right place for coldies.

Do you get any access to ecm Strat charts , could swear I seen a spilt showing on twitter today from the ecm but I can’t find it anywhere now , I know the GFS has been signaling this and also now Glosea but the ECM? 

[SMU]

so Back to the heat & now ECM 48 & 72 introduce the cold 850s ~ -10c Sunday from 12 & some snow flurries into mid Kent & Suffolk / EA as the afternoon wears on- With these ( generally light ) becoming more widespread in the South & East Monday

Also with the -11c line arriving further NE this could introduce some showery snow as well- up towards the Humber -

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z has one of the snowiest low res that I've ever seen..I would take it without any hesitation!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Raythan said:

Do you get any access to ecm Strat charts , could swear I seen a spilt showing on twitter today from the ecm but I can’t find it anywhere now , I know the GFS has been signaling this and also now Glosea but the ECM? 

yes it does - similar to yesterdays 12z which is available via berlin

[bluearmy]

ec showing a streamer into kent sunday night which eases up to Suffolk/London area Monday - - not heavy at the moment but shows instability

[Ice Day]

Next Tuesday looking bitter on the ECM

 

Close up 

All good so far

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

so Back to the heat & now ECM 48 & 72 introduce the cold 850s ~ -10c Sunday from 12 & some snow flurries into mid Kent & Suffolk / EA as the afternoon wears on- With these ( generally light ) becoming more widespread in the South & East Monday

Also with the -11c line arriving further NE this could introduce some showery snow as well- up towards the Humber -

 

No, we don't want that at all!!!

Except over the pole in the stratosphere.

Edited February 2, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[abruzzi spur]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

so Back to the heat & now

 

 

Is that a downgrade or has the mild sector upgraded? 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Is that a downgrade or has the mild sector upgraded? 

Looks more out of kilter-squezzed out 

=better.

[bluearmy]

lost our upper lows on ecm

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Next Tuesday looking bitter on the ECM

 

Close up 

All good so far

Problem is the lack of widespread snowcover and higher than normal ocean temperatures. 

Generally 2°c for northern areas and 3-5°c elsewhere. 

[tight isobar]

@120 milder sector more evident!!!!!

[shaky]

No where near as good this ecm!!!!up to 96 hours fine!!ukmo much better this evening!!

[bluearmy]

just comparing ec 12z with ec 00z and its adjusted a bit east on the azores and south on the euro trough by T100

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

lost our upper lows on ecm

Yes, still cold though.  On the face of it good consistency between ECM and UKMO at 120 but UKMO has slightly better uppers.

ECM  

UKMO  

[Daniel*]

Well this is off the map!

... poor show really at T+120 

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well this is off the map!

... poor show really at T+120 

 

that's the 00z run for snow Daniel - this run isn't on the same page with no upper lows involved !

I think the morning ec run was the high point of the upcoming cold week. lets see what we can squeeze out of it. always surprises once the cold is in.

Edited February 2, 2018 by bluearmy

[Astral Goat Juice]

8 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Problem is the lack of widespread snowcover and higher than normal ocean temperatures. 

Generally 2°c for northern areas and 3-5°c elsewhere. 

Do you have the data for higher than normal temperatures of the ocean I can take a look at please? Our current temperature is running at 6.7C with the average around 7.2C. 

[Daniel*]

Just now, bluearmy said:

that's the 00z run for snow Daniel - this run isn't on the same page with no upper lows involved !

I know that I’m just saying it’s missing. Let’s hope this is not with much support in the ensembles. 

T+144

GFS and ECM very alike, perhaps a little bit of a tense time to be expected it’s never easy...

[Mucka]

Let's hope this  another "mild" Op run like the GFS. 

That is quite some warm sector.

[tight isobar]

144 cold getting well mixed out via ec-12z!!!!

Edited February 2, 2018 by tight isobar

[terrier]

So ecm is very gfs like at 144 I fear another great climb down towards the gfs from the euros here. Certainly wouldn’t be the first time it’s happened this winter. Let’s see what the ensembles have to say later. But certainly a shift towards the gfs from ecm this evening 

[SMU]

Not the best of Suites tonight @144 - Perhaps progressive - 

Its been highlighted a few times how this is similar to 2012- The models @144 have plenty of scope to move around- Doesn’t take much to allign to an all snow event

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM about to show what I always thought - forget Tuesday, the real fun starts end of next week and beyond.