Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Nick L]

Aaaaaaand back to the models please! 

[Catacol]

Cant say I pay much attention to model detail beyond 120... and reliability above 72 gets iffy. However BA is correct in the substance of his posts - the GFS 12z has a stronger azores high and substantially lower pressure over Iceland by the end of next week.

Not that I'm in the least bit bothered: I have little regard for NWP op runs on their own and prefer to look at the drivers that are looking positive for cold. Will it snow or not at 144hrs+ is pointless, wasted energy especially when based on the GFS which observationally is less accurate in our small pocked of the world than both UKMO and ECM.

Have spotted some very good tweets today and will post something a bit broader later. I'm just looking forward to a bit of frost to start with!

Edited February 2, 2018 by Catacol

[bluearmy]

Order ! Order !

best wait for the gefs and ecm before ‘calling time on anything notable’  and remember that this is just one set of runs (although it’s quite normal for the more extreme sypnotics at days 6 to 9 to be watered down somewhat)

Ukmo day 6 is more than ok but not quite as cold as it would have been following the 00z  evolution. On reflection it’s variance isn’t much more than inter run would expect 

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by bluearmy

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

23 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Some decent cold, snowy weather around next week but it's a shame the GFS brings milder air back in next weekend, brief I know but it does shunt the coldest air eastwards away from the UK which puts us back in the polar maritime air which is often very disappointing for my area snow-wise. Anyway we still have much of next week to enjoy across the UK & Ireland, if you like the cold that is 

GFS 12z brings a brief spell of milder air next Thursday quickly followed by much colder air again. However it still looks like the milder air will then return by next weekend again with the coldest weather restricted to mainland Europe. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Draig Goch

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

only 2 days ago it was looking pretty splendid. 

This morning's Ecm 00z was pretty splendid with deep cold in-situ and trough disruption with huge snow potential..Hoping the 12z carries on with that theme!

[offerman]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think this would lead to carnage next Friday - very active splitting front inbound, still cold ahead (and behind)

Is there even a route for an Atlantic height rise on the back of it?

Good afternoon MAN with Beard, Now that would be icing on the cake. Atlantic height rise would then help that greenland cold to filter down albeit slightly diluted but still exceptionally cold. I have always favoured mid atlantic high that moved from Azores original placement but then to move in to a vertical phase as opposed to flat. If that continued north then IMHO would be snowmaggedan and bitter cold.

[shaky]

Now watch ecm come up with a belter of a run!!!ukmo is pretty much the same as this mornings run!!little difference!!

[SizzlingHeat]

Just now, Frosty. said:

This morning's Ecm 00z was pretty splendid with deep cold in-situ and trough disruption with huge snow potential..Hoping the 12z carries on with that theme!

Lets hope it sticks to its guns hey. Would love some proper winter weather. Seems impossible nowadays. Fleeting frosts and the occasional sleet shower has become more the norm now. Some serious cold and snowy weather would be much appreciated. I just cant see it happening after the 12s so far...unless the ecm thinks otherwise. Lets hope!

[Nick L]

Numerous off topic/squabbly posts have disappeared. Some have already had their posting rights reduced in this thread the last couple of days, do you really want to join them? 

[Scandinavian High.]

It looks like south east England  is going to be place if you want snow..

Edited February 2, 2018 by abbie123

[Derecho]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Thanks for that, can I have your crystal ball? Wonder why all these meteorological organisations waste all their money on these multi million pound models when you know exactly what's going to happen.

Well I think a point is being made if the 12z GFS transpires don't you? Yes Sunday and Monday look pretty chilly but after that it becomes a bit of a colder then average NW flow. It isn't a mid Atlantic block, just the Azores high catching some cold air spilling out of Greenland.

 Yes a fairly chilly NW flow coming up

 However this is an example of a much better northern block

 

By no means should any long term predictions be made but the GFS is a step back, it may not be the best but its important model output in its own right as January showed.  If we wanted to get a really good spell of cold the Scandi high needed to remain close and not sink into Eurasia... though the ensembles have slowly started backing away from this.

Don't shoot people down just because they don't post cold charts.

Here is a picture of a blue UK to cheer rampant coldies up.



Perfectly understandable why some are a bit more despondent this afternoon. Yes a cold spell is coming but an oppurtunity is missed to tap into really cold air just to our east. It could still turn out to be much better though so fingers crossed for a better ECM.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[nick sussex]

Its good to see in an ever changing world some things never change!

Could we save the obituaries for post the event rather than before. Theres more to the world of NWP than just the GFS, yes its not as good as earlier runs but the UKMO still looks fine and we're waiting to see what the ECM has to say.

Edited February 2, 2018 by nick sussex

[karlos1983]

Warming event still on course! Getting closer as well!

[offerman]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Its good to see in an ever changing world some things never change!

Could we save the obituaries for post the event rather than before. Theres more to the world of NWP than just the GFS, yes its not good as good as earlier runs but the UKMO still looks fine and we're waiting to see what the ECM has to say.

Hi Nick,

The UKMO chart which is still quite good compared to slight change in others. I did hear that longer term the METOFFICE have said very cold set to remain until March. A poster earlier mentioned that the Met have issued an update for this. So maybe just maybe any mild blips or less cold blips might return to cold.....?

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its good to see in an ever changing world some things never change!

Could we save the obituaries for post the event rather than before. Theres more to the world of NWP than just the GFS, yes its not as good as earlier runs but the UKMO still looks fine and we're waiting to see what the ECM has to say.

Thats what i sed aswell nick the ukmo looks brilliant!!gfs slight step back but will probably change again on 18z!!ukmo same as this mornings run!!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its good to see in an ever changing world some things never change!

Could we save the obituaries for post the event rather than before. Theres more to the world of NWP than just the GFS, yes its not as good as earlier runs but the UKMO still looks fine and we're waiting to see what the ECM has to say.

All true nick - I am intrigued that some of the lesser models had found the v cold evolution this morning and yet have reverted away again. Given the trend of the gfs (yes I know it’s the gfs), I would be thinking the very wintry scenario which seemed more than feasible following the ec 00z op was on slightly dodgy ground. 

[craigore]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its good to see in an ever changing world some things never change!

Could we save the obituaries for post the event rather than before. Theres more to the world of NWP than just the GFS, yes its not as good as earlier runs but the UKMO still looks fine and we're waiting to see what the ECM has to say.

Do or die time for ECM

God help us if it goes pear shaped. Will be mahem in ere

To be honest , up to 144 still looks great. Thats all we should be concerning ourselves wth.

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All true nick - I am intrigued that some of the lesser models had found the v cold evolution this morning and yet have reverted away again. Given the trend of the gfs (yes I know it’s the gfs), I would be thinking the very wintry scenario which seemed more than feasible following the ec 00z op was on slightly dodgy ground. 

One run is a trend?

[feb1991blizzard]

Blistering  SSW on this run, massive reversal.

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Nick,

The UKMO chart which is still quite good compared to slight change in others. I did hear that longer term the METOFFICE have said very cold set to remain until March. A poster earlier mentioned that the Met have issued an update for this. So maybe just maybe any mild blips or less cold blips might return to cold.....?

Hi

This always happens with the GFS because it has 4 runs a day it does hog the limelight and its very generous with its info available to the public however its just one of many global models and European blocking patterns are dealt with better by the Euros.

The UKMO is often the decider because its in the past been the one which says no. I'd much rather see the GFS go AWOL than the UKMO.

In terms of the Met Office it could be they're following the strat or the MJO will get into phase 8, both though can be interconnected as phase 8 does have a decent correlation with a SSW.

[bluearmy]

Just now, frosty ground said:

One run is a trend?

Maybe not  - let’s see where ec op goes in an hour 

perhaps there isn’t really much continuity post day 6 anyway 

[tight isobar]

Shall i be the village idiot and say it??!!

MASSIVE ECM 12Z THIS EVENING!?

[supernova]

GFS & UKMO at 120hrs. If the UKMO is to everyone' s satisfaction (not least as most seem to agree it's virtually identical to this morning's run) can anyone explain why the GFS is so disheartening other than what it goes on to develop in deeper FI? This is five days from now. There's plenty to resolve before then, never mind afterwards. Stay cool. Let's see where the GFS op sits within the ensembles and hope the ECM remains steadfast. 2010 it aint, but better than anything we've seen in the last four or five years it most certainly could be subject to a number of plausible upgrades, most of which have been discussed on here throughout today. Not worried (yet)!

PS. Sidney's ready for the first person to post a pointless IMBY distant precipitation/accumulation chart!

 

[andymusic]

gfs likely to be a "model wobble" - just looked into me crystal balls lol

it'll be back on track with more snowiness on the next run - but this run ain't so bad anyway

Edited February 2, 2018 by andymusic

[london-snow]

Just a observation people are moaning about the gfs and how it has shown a consistent trend for the past 2 that’s 2 runs to water down this potential incoming cold spell.

 

Here is a point..

 

Has the ukmo & ecm over the past 12 runs shown this watered down version??

Nope..