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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:


Looking good to me for the overall theme! details have slight differences! 

If things were to go the way of the Pear now, it would be some turnaround! Would go down in Netweather folk-law history no doubt! Let’s not even consider that. :nonono:

We can only see to mon/tues with any decent confidence. The really interesting stuff seems to begin Tuesday so I would hang on another 24 hours yet before that statement is valid 

Edited by bluearmy
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Evening All  Ice Cold hope your still with us .... So the much touted SSW is coming into view & here’s my thoughts + timelines of when / where to expect it... We have seen lots of p

Well it's probably fair to say that I've been rather quiet on these forums for the last few years really, especially since 2013. After 15 years of internet weather watching, and more importantly,

Well - ho hum - let's have a sit rep. My eyes are hanging out on stalks.  The pacific first - engine of the climate system. How is our AAM looking in the face of the current high amplitude MJO?

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We can only see to mon/tues with any decent confidence. The really interesting stuff seems to begin Tuesday so I would hang on another 24 hours yet before that statement is valid 

Fair comment, but we can't get to Tuesday onward fun without +72 Verifying. It's the surge of cold from the East that arrives on Sunday that will allow for any approaching fronts from the Atlantic to fall as widespread snow, not just back edge or front edge snow? Speculation of course at this juncture, they might not even make it across a large swathe of the UK.

My point is just Agreement to +72, it's fundamental to the cold spell! And that looks to be agreed.. 12z will aid confidence hopefully.

Edited by karlos1983
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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

If Icon is right at 144 this could be a long cold spell (It is Icon). Now I am just saying this, but Icon is showing how 1987 started


Bang on warren...big similarities!!

@epic @87

Edited by tight isobar
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The ICON shows pretty much something I had thought about today (As well as many others I see), after we see the Atlantic front on Tuesday stall with the trough sinking and cutting off. Would we see another attempt from the Azores high to push into Scandinavia to try and advect some bitterly cold air our way. Whilst this weekend into the start of next week looks cold, it isn't going to be a beast, but a second bit to positon a more robust high to our north east could unleash the beast conisdering the models are predicting 850s to get close to -20C over Scnadinavia next week. That is some serious cold.

Using this mornings ECM as an example for the depth of cold to our north east.


If we can tap this cleanly then this could turn from a good cold spell to a classic. The ICON gets pretty close, lets see if the GFS/UKMO and later ECM could devlelop this.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 72 / 96 looking great


Check the 120 hour chart steve and its a massivw improvement on yesterdays 12z for same time!!more amplified near greenland and trough disrupting across the uk instead of bulldozing its way eastwards!!

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The last time I checked the BBC website, Monday's max and min were +6 and 0C respectively...Ergo, there must still be some inter-model uncertainty - Sunday's GFS12Z::cc_confused:

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Yes it seems like the uncertainty continues on the models because here in southwest Wales its still showing 8C & 4C for Monday 

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Wow UKMO 120 has -11c in the SE but -14c just over the channel-

Both GFS & UKMO swinging to the Easterly reload like the IKON


Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?


Just now, Day 10 said:

Here comes the snow...


M4 snow barrier strikes again :rofl:

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