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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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It's a shame that Scandi high is getting blasted away so quickly before it can build and funnel in the Scandi cold pool. We get some exposure to it on Monday and Tuesday before the Scandi high moves over Eurasia and sends that cold pool further east.

image.thumb.png.38e3fefa209cd08b473c0317a0bdfb3e.pngimage.thumb.png.824a659266255ddadc8083a887a07c36.png 

Still a very chilly outlook, though the persistence of the cold depends on whether the mild sectors in the NW flow can get squeezed out, to give us snow instead of rain on Thursday.

GFSOPEU12_144_2.png

PS What is so confusing about this post? Just because I'm not posting loads of blue colours doesn't mean it's not a valid one

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Delete - T+120 on this run not as different as I thought to T+126 on the 06z.

GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

GFSOPEU06_126_1.png

Edited by Paul_1978

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3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Gfs 12z...boring, rather flat. Cold yes but not overwhelming and dry...some fragmented snow Tuesday to amount to barely a dusting for a few

Temperature here doesn't look like getting above freezing for around 100 hours, that seems like overwhelming cold to me!

114-778UK_mxu3.GIF

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3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Gfs 12z...boring, rather flat. Cold yes but not overwhelming and dry...some fragmented snow Tuesday to amount to barely a dusting for a few

But this could lead to another Slidergate situation, should the PM airstream, from the NW, become establish?:santa-emoji:

Netweather GFS Image

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UKMO day 6 looks good to me - more potent trough disruption incoming...

Edited by mulzy

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Shame we can' get a better angle off attack on Thursday to squeeze out the milder sector. 

GFSOPEU12_150_2.png

Edited by KTtom

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3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Out to T+120 and the 12z is chalk and cheese compared to the 06z at noon on Weds 7th Feb. 
(12z first). Nerve-wracking!

 

GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

GFSOPEU06_126_1.png

thety lok pretty similar to me

 

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Out to T+120 and the 12z is chalk and cheese compared to the 06z at noon on Weds 7th Feb. 
(12z first). Nerve-wracking!

 

GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

GFSOPEU06_126_1.png

they look pretty similar to me

 

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hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority. Turning back to snow, but that's a disappointment.

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority.

Wouldn’t lose any sleep over that chart.  As ever, the GFS is too fast and progressive.

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6 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Gfs 12z...boring, rather flat. Cold yes but not overwhelming and dry...some fragmented snow Tuesday to amount to barely a dusting for a few

Some people are never happy!

Would you rather have mild and wet boring south westerlies? 

There is the possibility of disruptive  snow across parts of the UK on Tuesday. At least it’s turning much colder with the chance of a few surprises, nothing boring about that!

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Some decent cold, snowy weather around next week but it's a shame the GFS brings milder air back in next weekend, brief I know but it does shunt the coldest air eastwards away from the UK which puts us back in the polar maritime air which is often very disappointing for my area snow-wise. Anyway we still have much of next week to enjoy across the UK & Ireland, if you like the cold that is :D

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority.

Mild sector.... is back.

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority.

Not as much trough disruption larger mild sector that doesn’t really get squeezed. Very much open to change a lot before we get to there, time to get away from screens and get some fresh air I think.

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority.

Stop looking at ppn charts for T144!.....You'll end up doing yourself mischief!.......have a relax/jamaican woodbine mate, It'll be fine in the end :D

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Can I be the first to say that so far, the 12z’s are certainly not an upgrade on what has gone before and at the risk of being called a ‘moaning minnie’, heading in a worrying direction for the ‘ultras’ of the coldie community ! 

many of the aspects of previous runs which prolonged and even intensified the cold as next week progressed have tended in a less cold direction - and this is across all the models 

Edited by bluearmy

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority. Turning back to snow, but that's a disappointment.

Oh, I don't know, karlos...If, as I suspect, it's the worst-case scenario, temps (even within the 'warm' sector) won't get much higher than 4-5C) it looks more like a snow-rain-snow situation to me...?:hi:

Netweather GFS Image

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Can I be the first to say that so far, the 12z’s are certainly not an upgrade on what has gone before and at the risk of being called a ‘moaning minnie’, heading in a worrying direction for the ‘ultras’ of the coldie community ! 

If the ECM and UKMO were showing that I’d be more worried. We’ve got this!!😎

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

gfs-2-150.png?12

We now have a rain event for the majority. Turning back to snow, but that's a disappointment.

How many hours is that away hmmmmmmmm

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1 minute ago, Stormeh said:

Some people are never happy!

Would you rather have mild and wet boring south westerlies? 

There is the possibility of disruptive  snow across parts of the UK on Tuesday. At least it’s turning much colder with the chance of a few surprises, nothing boring about that!

No, only 36 hours ago things were looking a LOT better than now. The 12z has practically followed the 6z which followed the 0z. Disruptive snow was looking fairly plausible until yesterday evening. Now all the main models have moved away from the idea of frontal snow on Tuesday to leave a few dribs and drabs in a few places. A slack northerly then takes hold for a couple of days giving dry, sunny and cold weather with severe frost at night. Yes, thats lovely, but its boring and typical of early Feb. Nothing unusual, nothing out the ordinary. Yes, the ecm may suggest otherwise but unless the gfs tracks towards the extremeities of the ecm, then a lot of people are gonna be dissapointed, particularly given the complete over the top posts about 'a foot of snow's etc which isnt true and isnt helpful for those with no understanding.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

GFS 12z pretty quick return to Atlantic. Not yreat mid section.

Its there in the ens.

But a shortlived scenario!!!

Thats if its even takes as op-modeled.

See where 12z ens sit!!.

 

MT8_London_ens (2).png

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS 12z pretty quick return to Atlantic. Not yreat mid section.

Same old GFS when blocking is involved, absolutely clueless model when's it comes to modelling the Atlantic against blocking highs. 

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UW144-21.GIF?02-17

I think this would lead to carnage next Friday - very active splitting front inbound, still cold ahead (and behind)

Is there even a route for an Atlantic height rise on the back of it?

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As this 12z op progresses..

The route back to cold will re-establish.

Again any AT-inroads look fleeting...

But as per-let the models decipher that!!!

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