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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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15 minutes ago, karyo said:

Looking at yesterday's MJO update. The forecast takes it to phase 7 where it stalls and possibly weakens. Is that going to be good enough or do we need to enter phase 8? 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml 

There are other model runs though.

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gifCFSO_phase_small.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

There are other model runs though.

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gifCFSO_phase_small.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

The JMA and the CFS look great. The ECM similar to the GFS.

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3 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Well that's put a dampner on things. Fuss over nothing. Over hyped by some posters again.

It hasn’t happened yet so......

details cannot be ironed out yet

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6 minutes ago, Purga said:

In the shorter term the snow amounts may or may not be that spectacular but the potential is there for the long game.

A couple of tweets from the boys that know:

  @fergieweather
Not overly-worried re snow amounts on Tues as yet, given frontolysing trend through the day (maybe a few cm in places at most, with NW areas presently looking most prone), but there's certainly a v wide areal likelihood of seeing at least slight amounts, which might be disruptive

@liamdutton
Agreed. There looks like a trend towards a few centimetres, rather than significant amounts. Enough to make for some nice pictures, but hopefully without the hassle of major issues!

 

When you're down the pub with them later Purga can you ask them to be a bit more bullish TIA :rofl:

Seriously though, 2-3 cm's of snow in the South would cause complete carnage. Some are already writing this cold spell off before it's even started.

Reminder +72 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsECM0-72.GIFgfs-1-72.png?6

It's coming and so will the surprises that pop up at short notice!

Edited by karlos1983

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4 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Well that's put a dampner on things. Fuss over nothing. Over hyped by some posters again.

Overhyped?.  Im Confused   Snow is one of the most difficult elements to predict.  Infact that  statement  has been repeated on here  thousands of times.  The fact of the matter is  that we are entering a very cold spell of weather  perhaps the coldest since 2012    An unstable flow,  Potential galore,    Snow will pop up anywhere in the next week or so.    it may well be dry it may will be snowy  but ive looked through the posts and i dont think ive seen any experienced poster saying that  the next growth industry in this country is Igloo production.   Sit back and enjoy the cold weather  a surprise or two will happen.

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Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, next week's cold / very cold spell is locked and loaded..how much snow we get and where it occurs is still unclear but I think we should all see at least some snow during the next two weeks with plenty of frost / ice!!:):cold:

ECMAVGEU00_72_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

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16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It must be the SSW that's doing these crazy 4c -ve temp anomalies throughout 1 month+ that are coming out of the CFS lately, if we maintain the pattern with that frigid air to the East and the GFS SSW verifies we would be looking at a spell miles superior to this effort next week, the EPS now back up the split SSW but it looks a tad further East but still very decent.

To be honest you can't really get better than next week.

As for ssw it may not happen,

andif it does may not be blocked in a suitable position.

Next week is classic 80s style.

 

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13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

One only has to run the 3 big models for 96h to see that azores influence is likely to help dissipate the front and lead to falls in cms rather than inches. However 2 things are clear: firstly that the snow will be widespread and for some parts this represents the first snow in several years (is that therefore over-hyped?) and secondly it represents the start of a longer running process that looks, at the moment, to be setting up for long term cold (given the absolute certainty of the odd milder day or two thrown in along the way as the block and atlantic wax/wane.) That is a larger context that deserves a bit of hype given our usual winter context.

Tuesday is the starter. Who wants to fill up on the starter? The main course will begin when the azores high fades back SW (and I think - see my post above - this may become a longer term retreat given AAM pattern) and the atlantic rolls over the top into the cold air. Thurs/Fri for this and out in the realms of FI which are pointless discussing at a microscale level at this stage.

 

I've noticed the Azores is in retreat which is unusual.

But as you say southerly or southeasterly diving low pressure/channel runners add in lower heights setting up to our south,

Can't wait can't get much better than this.

Or over the top and down the north sea all helps.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Those tweets from IF. Unclear whether he is talking about the SW (the area he covers) or the UK as a whole. Might be worth baring in mind.

ECM looks the best for wintry potential through the week but with Tuesday's front only affecting far western parts.

GFS looks a bit more marginal, with a bit more of an influence from PM air and Tuesday's front pushing much further east which sees precipitation more widely but also more marginal as the mild sector is slower to be mixed out.

Experience would make me think the ECM is overplaying the blocking and wintry potential but the GFS is overplaying the PM influence and underplaying wintry potential (showing it too marginal). Some sort of middle ground may be the outcome and would be wintry for many. Maybe just not quite as wintry as some of the ECM output.

 

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

To be honest you can't really get better than next week.

As for ssw it may not happen,

andif it does may not be blocked in a suitable position.

Next week is classic 80s style.

 

Satisfied with next week but to say you cant get better than next week is wrong - week 1 of feb 1991 - week 4 of Nov 2010, week 1 of feb 2009 and week  2 /3 of jan 87 would all beat it, Ian fergusson says Tuesday is now a few cm's - you can get a lot better than a few cm's. These troughs dropping down in the next 10 days are tending to get weaker nearer the time, we aren't talking about very active weather fronts here.

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Encouraging to see Exeter jumping on the potential easterly train second half Feb given that they can see what glosea is doing with the possible SSW mid month 

hopefully that’s based on what the model actually does with the vortex post SSW rather than what could traditionally happen 

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Those tweets from IF. Unclear whether he is talking about the SW (the area he covers) or the UK as a whole. Might be worth baring in mind.

ECM looks the best for wintry potential through the week but with Tuesday's front only affecting far western parts.

GFS looks a bit more marginal, with a bit more of an influence from PM air and Tuesday's front pushing much further east which sees precipitation more widely but also more marginal as the mild sector is slower to be mixed out.

Experience would make me think the ECM is overplaying the blocking and wintry potential but the GFS is overplaying the PM influence and underplaying wintry potential (showing it too marginal). Some sort of middle ground may be the outcome and would be wintry for many. Maybe just not quite as wintry as some of the ECM output.

 

I'm sorry but ECM and ukmo are very similar.

So Ian's tweets sound like he's staying on the safe side.

But considering the jma ukmo and ECM look similar then warm sectors or not I'd be more inclined to believe a wintry outlook is coming.

 

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3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I'm sorry but ECM and ukmo are very similar.

So Ian's tweets sound like he's staying on the safe side.

But considering the jma ukmo and ECM look similar then warm sectors or not I'd be more inclined to believe a wintry outlook is coming.

 

I haven't viewed the UKMO, to be honest. I just normally view the GFS as overprogressive with Atlantic influence and  ECM as overdoing blocking. No stats to back that up. Just personal experience. A middle ground is often (not always) a decent bet and would be wintry for many in this case.

Re-reading IF's tweets, it looks like he was talking about the UK as a whole.

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13 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Delete  - ballsed it right up.

Post of the day.

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51 minutes ago, ptow said:

maxes of 2/3 seem high bearing in mind the uppers of -12/13. What sort of uppersi we need to get subzero maxima?

It would make sense if there was a maritime influence even if the cold air is in place. On the coast if there is a breeze there's not even a guarantee night minimas will be below 0C even with uppers of below -10C

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Lmao here...

Was'nt liam dutton quoting that the front wouldnt even make it out of the northwest just the other day!!??

Its now in  closer range(though still to far to make exactions)..

And we have a deeper push south exit-ing into the low counrtys...so already an upgrade!!!

Further..pro-or otherwise...nobody is going to make perfect accumulate prog- @4 days out....

Im sticking on this that, tuesday/wednesday...will gain momentum as we evolve in open modeling....and note; that some spots will do notably better than others as stalling-and direction begin to flag.....

Have a cold shower and some meds...'honestly'....!!!!

Edited by tight isobar

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The great thing about this upcoming cold/very cold spell is that we dont know exactly what we are going to get served up with regards to rain/sleet/snow and with the battle between the easterlys and the atlantic fronts and and also how the PV is going to behave its all very interesting and will keep me looking at the weather models for a few weeks yet:cold:

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This could be an exceptional month for coldies, looking at the latest GEFS  / ECM mean for example there is no sign of mild dominating, quite the opposite indeed with predominantly cold conditions with wintry ppn, frosts and ice aplenty!!:D:cold:

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JMA and CFS LRF very bullish about a cold February all the way! Week 2 (9th-16th) especially is not without interest, colder than average with above average precipitation. In short, could bring potentially better snowfall chances than week 1!

Gav's update well worth a watch. :)

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46 minutes ago, Catacol said:

One only has to run the 3 big models for 96h to see that azores influence is likely to help dissipate the front and lead to falls in cms rather than inches. However 2 things are clear: firstly that the snow will be widespread and for some parts this represents the first snow in several years (is that therefore over-hyped?) and secondly it represents the start of a longer running process that looks, at the moment, to be setting up for long term cold (given the absolute certainty of the odd milder day or two thrown in along the way as the block and atlantic wax/wane.) That is a larger context that deserves a bit of hype given our usual winter context.

Tuesday is the starter. Who wants to fill up on the starter? The main course will begin when the azores high fades back SW (and I think - see my post above - this may become a longer term retreat given AAM pattern) and the atlantic rolls over the top into the cold air. Thurs/Fri for this and out in the realms of FI which are pointless discussing at a microscale level at this stage.

 

Brilliant post Cat,

I have been banging on about the azores high being the problem and movement westwards or northwards needed to allow something to develop, so spot on. Also bang on about ignoring F1 as cant be microscale on those ridiculous charts out that far as they always change and downgrade anyway.

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'Fuss over nothing' like these people are weather gods, they don't control the weather you know they are looking at lots of the same data and charts we do and making predictions based on these, predictions that are probably fair AT THIS MOMENT, however all of the country is in the game.. not something you see very often.

 

Its where the old adage get the cold in first then worry about snow prospects comes into play, if you constantly get hung up on snow prospects run by run at this range you will get model fatigue at a rapid rate.

Edited by Weathizard

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6 minutes ago, offerman said:

Couldn't agree with you more Richard. 

Get the cold in and see what happens 

nothing is over hyped as yet but those counting the snowflakes next week really are jumping the gun - frontal snow more predictable but not a decaying one up against a cold block 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Get the cold in and see what happens 

nothing is over hyped as yet but those counting the snowflakes next week really are jumping the gun - frontal snow more predictable but not a decaying one up against a cold block 

Fergie is more often right than not on what he says when cold and snow are about. Did Fergie mean Bath Northeast Somerset when he mentioned NW of region or is he talking more Swindon way?

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