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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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5 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Don't know, but going by this it's on the same page as the GFS:

u10serie.png

Some perbs are and the control is, id like to see more runs hitting -10 m/s rather than quickly rebounding but that's a bit nit-picky.

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Ens watch, still gawjus 

AF596A37-8C8B-40BE-BA47-F31F8653FCA1.thumb.gif.007f7256e877f605fc2cd645f0682af6.gif

Edited by karlos1983

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Not because of the detail but because, after the upcoming cold spell has passed on, the pattern reverts to this winter's almost default - slider-low territory...And 1970 saw one or two quite spectacular sliders:

Netweather GFS Image

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Good morning all, potentially very exciting times comming up if you like cold and snow, but on a serious note wife has a drive to Manchester on Monday then back here in the evening, on wednesday she is driving back to Mancs then onto Harrogate then back here on thurs, when do we feel any snow will start to show in any forecasts as it does worry me when she is driving up and down the country, plus id hate to cancel the poker and curry night i have planned for wednesday evening if she cant travel, lol

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ens watch, still gawjus 

AF596A37-8C8B-40BE-BA47-F31F8653FCA1.thumb.gif.007f7256e877f605fc2cd645f0682af6.gif

The D10-15 ones have trended back slightly milder though.

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I think there is lots to like about the Gfs 6z op, it shows plenty of snow, frost and ice during the next few weeks which would make it a February to fondly remember if anything like it verifies.. the reality could be even better..the Ecm 00z op was superb, hopefully the 12z will continue to build on it!!..following the last few meh weeks it looks like next week will see us all plunged into proper winter weather!!..can't wait:):D:cold-emoji:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The D10-15 ones have trended back slightly milder though.

That’s what I am noticing - that clustering less cold around days 10/11 cannot be ignored if it keeps repeating but for the time being it’s just a single suite and plenty of water (or ice) to flow under the bridge before then! 

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The D10-15 ones have trended back slightly milder though.

“Slightly” yes, but probably futile looking that far given the current setup. Certainly nothing particularly mild even in the D10-15 period. There are also some pretty nippy members. 

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That’s what I am noticing - that clustering less cold around days 10/11 cannot be ignored if it keeps repeating but for the time being it’s just a single suite and plenty of water (or ice) to flow under the bridge before then! 

Im thinking that the SSW looks less pronounced signal (and more East) on the EPS than GEFS but that wouldn't be affecting the D10/11 charts, possibly the 15 at a push.

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

“Slightly” yes, but probably futile looking that far given the current setup. Certainly nothing particularly mild even in the D10-15 period. There are also some pretty nippy members. 

At least it'll be less cold!:shok:

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First signs of the cold arriving from the E on the latest Euro 4.

18020406_0206.gif

Note the drop in dewpoints.

18020400_0206.gif18020406_0206.gif

Fully expect a flock of seagulls to arrive in Peterborough shortly.:yahoo:

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

“Slightly” yes, but probably futile looking that far given the current setup. Certainly nothing particularly mild even in the D10-15 period. There are also some pretty nippy members. 

agree but the milder cluster might just bring average weather.

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A few more in the mid term join the less cold spikes...certainly nothing to be alarmed about..and plenty of colder options also....

As good as in a long time thats 4 sure!!!

MT8_London_ens (2).png

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37 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ens watch, still gawjus 

AF596A37-8C8B-40BE-BA47-F31F8653FCA1.thumb.gif.007f7256e877f605fc2cd645f0682af6.gif

Even colder next week that last night's 12Z set. Maximum temperatures 1C or 2C at very best between Tuesday and Friday (maybe 3C on extreme S coast and 4/5C in extreme SW). Ice days for some central areas a possibility next Wednesday/Thursday. Milder air (i.e. 5C or so) into the south by Saturday.

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There's lots to like about the GEFS 6z mean next week, really cold spell on the way with widespread sometimes severe frosts and daytime maxima really struggling to climb much above zero celsius and some areas could stay sub zero for long periods, especially where there are accumulations of lovely snow!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄..looking further ahead, I'm seeing plenty of cold zonality with further wintry ppn / ice and frosts!!:cold-emoji::D..great time to be a coldie isn't it:)

21_78_2mtmpmax.png

21_102_2mtmpmax.png

21_126_2mtmpmax.png

21_150_2mtmpmax.png

21_174_2mtmpmax.png

21_198_2mtmpmax.png

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maxes of 2/3 seem high bearing in mind the uppers of -12/13. What sort of uppers do we need to get subzero maxima?

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2 minutes ago, ptow said:

maxes of 2/3 seem high bearing in mind the uppers of -12/13. What sort of uppers do we need to get subzero maxima?

Very much rule of thumb, but if you add 10/11 to the 850's you'll be fairly close, but local conditions at SL may have an effect

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Just now, Brassmonkeylily said:

Our  weather Professionals playing down any snow event for Tuesday .......
  @fergieweather 

Not overly-worried re snow amounts on Tues as yet, given frontolysing trend through the day (maybe a few cm in places at most, with NW areas presently looking most prone), but there's certainly a v wide areal likelihood of seeing at least slight amounts, which might be disruptive


@liamdutton 
 

Agreed. There looks like a trend towards a few centimetres, rather than significant amounts. Enough to make for some nice pictures, but hopefully without the hassle of major issues!

 

Thats a good assesment.  And also shows  thoughts on the strength of the cold block.   The last few runs have shown the front fizzling out as it reaches the UK .  The front on Friday is already showing this aswell.  Of course there will also be little features that wont be picked up until the time.   I know this is a old and boring quote  but it is true. Get the cold in First then wait for the snow.       

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Looking at yesterday's MJO update. The forecast takes it to phase 7 where it stalls and possibly weakens. Is that going to be good enough or do we need to enter phase 8? 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml 

I wouldn't read too much into the WH plots longer term - for now we have this text from the cpc report:

 

Dynamical and statistical models strongly support continued MJO activity, with the enhanced phase propagating east across the West Pacific and destructively interfering with La Nina by Week-2.

That's good enough for me. Sustained interference in the background Nina state for 10 - 14 days will be enough to get the vortex split and the pattern entrenched.

In addition the spike is so high that even when the GFS is forecasting it to wane (and the GFS has a bias this way) it is still a long way from the COD.

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

All good. Phase 7 composite is fine.

z500_p7_02_1mon.png

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5 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Our  weather Professionals playing down any snow event for Tuesday .......
  @fergieweather 

Not overly-worried re snow amounts on Tues as yet, given frontolysing trend through the day (maybe a few cm in places at most, with NW areas presently looking most prone), but there's certainly a v wide areal likelihood of seeing at least slight amounts, which might be disruptive


@liamdutton 
 

Agreed. There looks like a trend towards a few centimetres, rather than significant amounts. Enough to make for some nice pictures, but hopefully without the hassle of major issues!

 

It is great that they are at least talking about snow.....which might be disruptive...!!

 

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Afternoon all :)

Unfortunately it's all often the case that when the charts get interesting my life gets busy. As so many others, I've enjoyed watching this hopefully interesting cold spell emerge from almost nowhere earlier in the week. There's a lovely animation over on the Finnish Met Office website showing the HP developing from above the point where Finland, Norway and Sweden meet and growing from 1020MB to 1035MB in just 12 hours and extending SW.

http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/marine-weather-and-baltic-sea

While you're enjoying that, I'll take a look at the medium range model output which today is going to take us out to Monday February 12th.

Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?02-12

A cold- looking chart though uppers are only -4 for most. Of more interest is the block re-developing over Scandinavia and the movement NW to SE of LP areas and the hint this movement could retrogress further west. Unsettled with rain and snow to altitude for many.

GEM 00Z at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?00

GEM has never bought into the upcoming cold spell and has been dragged kicking and screaming to the table in the past 24 hours. Even now, it's a short-lived colder blip before the Atlantic rushes back and this is a very mobile chart with rain or showers for most with a cold front clearing through the British Isles.

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

gfs-0-240.png

GFS has always played the anticyclonic card and continues to do so here. A brief milder segment embedded within the WNW'ly flow but generally benign and dry for most part from far NW parts which could see a little drizzle. Further into FI and the HP remains in charge with retrogression to an emerging Greenland HP.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

gfs-0-234.png?6

A more mobile and colder pattern with a strong WNW'ly flow off a chilly Atlantic. A secondary LP approaching the SW Approaches threatens enhanced rain and snow to elevation with some cold HPAs (below -8 over Scotland) in place. A colder evolution into FI with a NE'ly over the south which looks set to draw in some very cold air.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Not hugely different to the OP - a brief quieter spell under a transient ridge before more rain and wind from the west. The Control also ends very cold with a NE'ly flow setting up behind an emerging Greenland HP.

Looking at the GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

My observation would be a good number of colder options especially where the British Isles is under a cold col between pressure systems to the east and west. That looks our best prospect for a continuation of colder conditions into the medium term. A number bring in vigorous LP systems where there are milder options as well. Just looking at the Ens further into FI,  a growing cluster favouring much colder conditions and following OP and Control.

To conclude, events in the next 4-6 days notwithstanding, the best prospect of maintaining the cold theme through the end of next week is to get the British Isles into a col between systems where stagnant cold air can be maintained. That said, there are other milder options on the table and I'm struggling to see the cold theme surviving by this timer next week.

That being said, strong signs within GFS FI for a return to colder conditions after mid month with a renewed thrust of NE winds as pressure builds over Greenland. So it could be very cold, less cold, mild, very cold as a sequence for the next fortnight. My final caveat is given the dramatic model evolution of the past 72 hours and the varied evolutions shown by the main models, confidence in any medium term evolution has to be low. Developments elsewhere offer encouraging signs of possible pattern change (GFS 06Z FI ?)  but we'll know a lot more as time goes on.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

 

All good. Phase 7 composite is fine. Fantastic 

z500_p7_02_1mon.png

Hope you don't mind me editing your Post Catacol :D

Ps, thanks for the very informative post further up, great read!

 

Edited by karlos1983

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