Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Get what  you mean 

not surprisingly folk are seeing the half full glass at the moment but from where I’m sitting it’s positively overflowing - being greedy would prefer to be here a month ago but hey ho ....

Is that a ramp BA ? ? Things must be looking very good ??

[TEITS]

My word if you do not like a cold, blocked weather pattern then look away now because my post today looks at the output from a different perspective.

Firstly with the ECM on board we have decent agreement of an E,ly arriving around the 21st Feb.

After the intial E,ly we then have pretty good agreement of the blocking moving towards Greenland.

As this occurs we then unsurprisingly see pressure lower over Scandinavia towards the end of the run.

This is supported by a drop in temps over this region.

The above is a classic cold blocked pattern that you have to visit the archives to see. A pattern which can often be prolonged and last for weeks.

As many of you know I am sceptical of Teleconnections. However when you view todays N Hemisphere charts nobody can discount the effects of a SSW on the Polar Vortex!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is another upgrade on last night's 12z..soon it will be time to look east / northeast for our weather!!..worth a boom because the Gefs mean that I posted earlier is the same! ❄❄❄❄❄❄??????

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that a ramp BA ? ? Things must be looking very good ??

No need to ramp with posts like Steve’s and dave’s above 

And for balance, the charts from 2010 weren’t bad ....there have been others

[Deep Snow please]

There's a lot of good in the short range on this model with sub-zero temps, however the back edge of this model is simply incredible for us coldies. Potential for it to deepen as well.

[comet]

13 hours ago, comet said:

I would of thought that as the models get to grips with the SSW the blocking will be stronger with more latitude. Peak blocking I think could be anywhere from late Feb till second week of March. Just my opinion of course. The gfs ens look great but I think there is much better to come with some really mouth watering charts.

Well it didn't take long did it for the models to show a stronger more northerly block. Already I think we are nearly at the stage now where we can almost guarantee a very cold continental set up for Europe and the UK. The question will then be how cold and how snowy. It certainly looks as though we are in for a very wintry couple of weeks at least, starting in about 8 to 10 days time.

How often can you say that at that time scale with confidence. Not surprised to see NOAA lagging behind they always do when there is big pattern change.

[jethro]

Thicko question alert.....all those pretty pink/purple/green/yellow blob charts that to me look pretty, but to you lot look epic, are supposed to make it go very cold here (if it comes off). So why do the same model runs produce min UK temps of -2/-3c over much of the country? Surely that's not epic or am I missing something here?

[Optimus Prime]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No need to ramp with posts like Steve’s and dave’s above 

And for balance, the charts from 2010 weren’t bad ....there have been others

Whilst they are indeed ramps, I think there is some merit here. To have a reversal of zonal winds to that extent and to an historical context is quite something. I would say ramp where ramp is due, it's just 90% of the time evidence or strong evidence in favour is rarely there. 

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, jethro said:

Thicko question alert.....all those pretty pink/purple/green/yellow blob charts that to me look pretty, but to you lot look epic, are supposed to make it go very cold here (if it comes off). So why do the same model runs produce min UK temps of -2/-3c over much of the country? Surely that's not epic or am I missing something here?

No, you seem to have quite a solid handle on it.

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thicko question alert.....all those pretty pink/purple/green/yellow blob charts that to me look pretty, but to you lot look epic, are supposed to make it go very cold here (if it comes off). So why do the same model runs produce min UK temps of -2/-3c over much of the country? Surely that's not epic or am I missing something here?

Well the charts above your original post are of -2 to -3  during midday   so it is pretty cold    however  loads of detail to sort at that range

[ICE COLD]

27 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thicko question alert.....all those pretty pink/purple/green/yellow blob charts that to me look pretty, but to you lot look epic, are supposed to make it go very cold here (if it comes off). So why do the same model runs produce min UK temps of -2/-3c over much of the country? Surely that's not epic or am I missing something here?

If the model output comes off like this mornings runs it will be freezing cold at ground level .  

This = very cold uk ?

Edited February 13, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[jvenge]

The ECM Control from this morning keeps the ridge over the UK for longer than the OP and with this you are looking at post T240 for incoming easterly winds. Still -9 to -10 or so when it does come in.

 

[jethro]

Just now, weirpig said:

Well the charts above your original post are of -2 to -3  during midday   so it is pretty cold    however  loads of detail to sort at that range

See that's what I don't get. I live in the mild SW (albeit in one of the colder bits and on top of a big hill) and we've had days this winter where it's barely got above freezing all day, surely that's just standard winter fare, not epic?

I'm not being picky or saying anyone is wrong here (seriously, it's all just pretty blobs to me) but it's one of the things I find most confusing. There's clearly lots of excitement around and I'd love to join in, but if epic is -2/-3c I'm struggling. Perhaps it's an age thing, cold winter weather is harder to come by these days but being older, my brain says 'that's not cold' because I've lived through more properly cold winters.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If the model output comes off like this mornings runs it will be freezing cold at ground level . Don't listen to @jvenge he is a mild ramper who is in the Ian brown and knocker mild ramping camp ?. 

This = very cold uk ?

For your location that would give -2 in the early morning and +2 as a high in early afternoon.

If it very cold to you, so be it, congrats with your very cold temperatures.

Other locations, especially at elevation, may of course see significantly colder conditions.

There is no mystery in how this is derived. For those who don't have meteogram access, check yr.no for ECM output and the excellent meteociel for GFS.

 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, jethro said:

See that's what I don't get. I live in the mild SW (albeit in one of the colder bits and on top of a big hill) and we've had days this winter where it's barely got above freezing all day, surely that's just standard winter fare, not epic?

I'm not being picky or saying anyone is wrong here (seriously, it's all just pretty blobs to me) but it's one of the things I find most confusing. There's clearly lots of excitement around and I'd love to join in, but if epic is -2/-3c I'm struggling. Perhaps it's an age thing, cold winter weather is harder to come by these days but being older, my brain says 'that's not cold' because I've lived through more properly cold winters.

Yes i agree  i was born in 1976  so have seen some right humdingers   however -3 daytime is temps we prob havnt seen since 2010   so perhaps as you say not epic  but certainly noteworthy 

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, jethro said:

See that's what I don't get. I live in the mild SW (albeit in one of the colder bits and on top of a big hill) and we've had days this winter where it's barely got above freezing all day, surely that's just standard winter fare, not epic?

I'm not being picky or saying anyone is wrong here (seriously, it's all just pretty blobs to me) but it's one of the things I find most confusing. There's clearly lots of excitement around and I'd love to join in, but if epic is -2/-3c I'm struggling. Perhaps it's an age thing, cold winter weather is harder to come by these days but being older, my brain says 'that's not cold' because I've lived through more properly cold winters.

A little bit more interesting is how much lower temperatures COULD be if the easterly flow maintains for any amount of time. You are essentially looking at the first few days of hit on the last few frames of the ECM.

[jethro]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If the model output comes off like this mornings runs it will be freezing cold at ground level . Don't listen to @jvenge he is a mild ramper who is in the Ian brown and knocker mild ramping camp ?. 

This = very cold uk ?

Thank you. Trying to make sense of it all. I work outdoors, if there's serious cold coming I need to plan, MASSIVE (3ftx5ft) pots to move and plants to wrap up if it's going to get mega cold, just a few sharp frosts and I won't have to. Requires extra manpower and machinery to book.

[Mark Parsons]

2 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thank you. Trying to make sense of it all. I work outdoors, if there's serious cold coming I need to plan, MASSIVE (3ftx5ft) pots to move and plants to wrap up if it's going to get mega cold, just a few sharp frosts and I won't have to. Requires extra manpower and machinery to book.

I would plan for a worse case scenario , if it passes with less effect then so be it.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

For your location that would give -2 in the early morning and +2 as a high in early afternoon.

If it very cold to you, so be it, congrats with your very cold temperatures.

Other locations, especially at elevation, may of course see significantly colder conditions.

There is no mystery in how this is derived. For those who don't have meteogram access, check yr.no for ECM output and the excellent meteociel for GFS.

 

I was only joking mate ?. I suppose it all about your own presences of what is cold and what's not . And like you say if the flow substains for a number off days then the temp will drop further. Let's just get to that point first and hopefully we can build on it ?

[ICE COLD]

Day 7 ECM and GFS 6z look a pretty good match to my eye . Slight differences? 

[mb018538]

-2 by day is extremely cold in the UK - remember the January 1987 set up was about as extreme a set up as you can get here, and that gave common daytime highs of -6 to -8c....so without that set up, and bear in mind it will be the end of February and not deepest darkest mid-winter, it would be about right.  

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 7 ECM and GFS 6z look a pretty good match to my eye . Slight differences? 

The ECM will be hard to top. The 06z not as amplified, but continues down the same path which is the main thing.

[shaky]

Just now, s4lancia said:

The ECM will be hard to top. The 06z not as amplified, but continues down the same path which is the main thing.

I think it will top the ecm on the 12z lol!!the amplification should continue!!

[frosty ground]

Interesting correction North West by the high and the Low on the eastern flank, any more like that and the UK will get a much colder evolution earlier.

[jethro]

16 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

I would plan for a worse case scenario , if it passes with less effect then so be it.

Hmmm. Requires major upheaval and spending several £100's of someone else's money. Think I may wait a day or two, see how it's looking then.

Thanks all for your help.