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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes weirpig ^^ GFS has an easterly flow again at 150...

Expect more improvements towards the ecm this evening steve!!still think that band of snow wont go any further then midlands and then weaken!!

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You can see once more the underestimation of the cold to the east at 170ish  the band of showers again is struggling to transverse the country 

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Expect more improvements towards the ecm this evening steve!!still think that band of snow wont go any further then midlands and then weaken!!

My thoughts are complete opposite!!

The ppn looks via modeling progression to be pushing further south run-2-run...and pepping up as it progresses!!!

One to eyeball!!!

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Well finally some proper cold coming in. 

 

Looks to me like potential ice days down here where i live but no snow as high pressure to dominant but hey cant win them all some nice white ice maybe fog making frost thicker freezing fog and ice days. Snow chance down here looks less likely near bath but at least cold looks like hanging about for at least a week though.

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That enough for me.  The difference at 180 between the 0z and 6z  is quite a difference.  anything after this really is speculative     so as it stands  cold and snowy   maybe heavy and prolonged for some.   then ???

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32 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Pretty much as you were.  Snow band Tuesday making ways across uk.

Hello Weirpig,

I trust you are well.

I do not know about model blindness in my case, I just having difficulty in working out the dynamics of them.

Could you please help me. The snow band to which you refer, is it one mentioned earlier that is coming across from the continent or the one coming southeast from the Atlantic?

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

 

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It is like the GFS is fighting itself, can see the pattern of blocking but desperately trying to revert to type.

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Just now, claret047 said:

Hello Weirpig,

I trust you are well.

I do not know about model blindness in my case, I just having difficulty in working out the dynamics of them.

Could you please help me. The snow band to which you refer, is it one mentioned earlier that is coming across from the continent or the one coming southeast from the Atlantic?

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

 

Hi  Dave  

Yes  the approaching fronts from the Atlantic   as they hit the cold air  the bands now appear compared to a few days ago   to be stalling  to me  it could get to a point were the band dosent even make it to wales.

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13 minutes ago, offerman said:

Well finally some proper cold coming in. 

 

Looks to me like potential ice days down here where i live but no snow as high pressure to dominant but hey cant win them all some nice white ice maybe fog making frost thicker freezing fog and ice days. Snow chance down here looks less likely near bath but at least cold looks like hanging about for at least a week though.

I think you might be surprised come next week, looking at the ppn charts as a guide and only a guide we could do pretty well

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11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-240.png?6

So the Atlantic go in and quickly bring n it PM air with a runner. 

Yep @frosty ground the Atlantic does get in but it's not the dreaded s Westlys witch is good , cold pm air and it's quite cold air too . 😁

IMG_1216.PNG

IMG_1217.PNG

IMG_1218.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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SSW propagated nicely on 6z - here is the result, only slightly decent chart but these runs will get better in the trop as long as we see similar strat profiles on future runs.

gfsnh-0-372_cbo3.png

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And right on Q, the GFS at the end of the run gives us a rinse and repeat but with better amplification.

The pattern is there, it is just nailing the amplification after each atlantic assault.

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7 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Who wants the cold to last right through to end of March then! 😂

 

 

Count me in and preferably a white Easter too! Why limit our aspirations to the end of March. :-)

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

And the fire still alight up top 😁

IMG_1220.PNG

This is the best split so far!

Does anybody know if the CFS is also seeing a SSW?

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The GEFS perbs are almost universally predicting widespread overnight frost for large parts of the U.K. but especially central England, from the 5th Feb to the 11th Feb.  Can't post them all but this is typical:

image.thumb.png.02709dff2a1058409766f7a64ef9ef2c.png

The coldest night at present looks like it could be the 8th February:

image.thumb.gif.66a156605836dc3b89e9048b15cc3b1c.gif

Do those CET forecasts need revising downwards?

Note to self:  must get around to lagging those pipes...

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

This is the best split so far!

Does anybody know if the CFS is also seeing a SSW?

Yep and it keeps getting closer 😁. Not sure if CFS is showing it . @feb1991blizzard will know .

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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep and it keeps getting closer 😁. Not sure if CFS is showing it . @feb1991blizzard will know .

I don't know for a fact but I would say that given those runs that make it cold and E'ly dominated for 6 weeks that its been pumping out lately, its a fair bet.

TBH I'm more bothered that the ECM shows it and the EPS.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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13 minutes ago, karyo said:

This is the best split so far!

Does anybody know if the CFS is also seeing a SSW?

Don't know, but going by this it's on the same page as the GFS:

u10serie.png

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