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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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I am pleased to see the change of output from the ICON. Hopefully the ECM will follow later.

I am also pleased that people here have started to consider this model. A few months ago I was getting laughed at for posting about the ICON charts.

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Ukmo headed the same way

Incidentally, gem did well on the 00z runs with this split. 

Edited by bluearmy

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8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Certainly are, out to 168

12z iconnh-0-168.png?12-12 0z iconnh-0-171.png?12-00

Mind you this is only the Icon, but it's nice to see and maybe setting the trend for this afternoon??/ (probably not!)

Aren't they both 12z?

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6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Aren't they both 12z?

No, click on this images, the run is noted top right.

Edit - apologies, you're correct

Edited by Ice Day

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Just now, Johnp said:

Aren't they both 12z?

Yes, this is the correc comparison

12z

iconnh-0-168_mqn6.png

00z

iconnh-0-180_led2.png

 

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44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ignoring the satirical nature of the post (which I liked btw), dave has highlighted 20th as the point beyond which he felt it could turn wintry. He won’t be far away. I think fergie is highlighting the 18th as the point where the trop could well begin to show HLB beginning to show its hand. 

I obviously can't speak for Ian, but I'd suggest he's referring to the point in time where there is currently considerable divergence and the general thought is that this is due in part to the models acting upon SSW influence and increasing entropy values.  Not certain, but it's a reasonable position.  Naturally, as one progresses through time, you would expect convergence as depth of data influences the direction of travel with attentive entropy moderation.  I'd still wager on a colder synoptic developing - I don't think the question is so much about that - it's more the degree and duration which retains uncertainty.

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Remember that gfs op is likely to be a bit strong on the northern arm. May take it a few runs to find the European models view. The gem will be of interest if it sides with the euros against the gfs 

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GFS out to 126 and if anything it's slightly more amplified than the Icon

GFS gfsnh-0-126.png?12 Icon iconnh-0-126.png?12-12

The UKMO looking very good at 144 as well.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

I think we can say, game on!

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Day 6

UKMO/GFS

UW144-21.GIF   gfs-0-144.png?12

Well both look fairly settled at this point with high pressure building across the UK, it looks like we will be able to support this with lower heights to our south with a decent opportunity to build the high further north further down the line. The UKMO does look better for advecting cold air though with the ridge pushing further north east whilst the high of the GFS is more rounded in shape. It still develops that easterly and begins to turn much colder from the east at day 8. Though I suspect the easterly is going to be transient with the high looking like a holding pattern before retrogression occurs.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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ukmo t144 is an eye opener 

the rollercoaster ride continues 

on our way back up it seems 

😁

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Stonking FI incoming, don't look everyone you'll only be disappointed...

 

oh go on then:D

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Huge upgrades by T+192 on GFS Op. Solid E'ly with added kinks in the flow, albeit without exceptionally cold uppers just yet. Probably quite dry but a country mile's worth of improvements on the 06Z. Seems to follow the general theme...

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The changes compared to yesterday 12z's for the better are incredible..... Things are looking so interesting now!

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So the GFS has us in an easterly by next Tuesday.  Cold air almost in reach

gfsnh-0-198.png?12 gfsnh-1-198.png?12

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image.thumb.png.5246b702f5e5bf9331330a6d58405729.png

It definitely looks as though the GFS is picking a colder solution this time. Very interesting to see.... the key is to pump that mild air exiting NE Canada to the west of Greenland.

That would inflate the Greenland high like a baloon and finally turn the see saw from a strong positive winter NAO to strong negative winter NAO.

If that happens expect some impressive northern blocking...

EDIT: Maybe a bit of patience needed but the 12z is heading in the right direction

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

yeah, you're going to need it to keep warm....

You stole my thunder bobbydog 😁 . And yes he'll definitely need it to keep warm -10 850s incoming 😁

IMG_1421.PNG

IMG_1422.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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back by popular demand...

appearing on a screen near you...

Winter!

gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.c89fcf014bd316facbe4a772c11646d1.png

starring - blocking!

tonights episode... the beast from the east!

gfsnh-1-216.thumb.png.1c2671270d290f93adda6f3657f8a57a.png

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So at 222 we've moved from this on the 6z

gfsnh-0-228.png?6

To this on the 12z

gfsnh-0-222.png?12

Big improvements, but has the GFS over-corrected or are there more upgrades to come? Again, the ensembles are going to be key for us seeing the likely direction of travel. 

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Jets smelt the coffee and is packing it up....Cold Easterly incoming.

image.png

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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The upgrades in the earlier timeframes have started quicker than I expected on the Gfs 12z..not that I'm complaining of course..bring it on!:D:cold:

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5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GFS is back with the garden path showing Easterlies again by t216! 👍

Mm viewing ens of late it’s hardly a surprise. 

Edited by Daniel*

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