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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

ICON brings the cold in quicker!

icon-1-84.png?02-06icon-1-90.png?02-00

There the same buddy

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Just now, shaky said:

There the same buddy

Shaky  you got model Blindness.   Central England is colder on one chart.  it all that blue ;0

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Just now, shaky said:

There the same buddy

No they really are not? -8 clearing Cornwall on 06z, whereas its across Hampshire on the 00z...

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

There the same buddy

One's Monday & the other's Tuesday :)

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Oops my bad guyz!!!soooreh!!!i was just lookin at the top corner and all i seen was 06z run for both!did not look at the dates!!egg on me face😁

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Just now, Purga said:

One's Monday & the other's Tuesday :)

Yes your Right  Model Blindness.   :D  Anyway  awaiting what Gfs does with the approaching band on Tuesday

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Look for gfs finding the ecm upper trough from the se day 5 

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any changes on gfs??getting nervous now!!

Pretty much as you were.  Snow band Tuesday making ways across uk.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any changes on gfs??getting nervous now!!

Steady as she goes 

gfs-1-90.png?6gfs-0-90.png?6gfs-2-90.png?6

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Gfs 102hrs..ppn banding pushing south across england...all heavy snow...certainly no marginality...

gfs-0-102.png

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 102hrs..ppn banding pushing south across england...all heavy snow...certainly no marginality...

gfs-0-102.png

Amended ;)

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Steady as she goes 

gfs-1-90.png?6gfs-0-90.png?6gfs-2-90.png?6

Is that a light Thames streamer I see there😀

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Into a northerly-potent- flow @114.

And the motion is on and has second north east/easterly flow written all over it as we gain. And move on !!!

gfs-0-114.png

Edited by tight isobar

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Into a northerly-potent- flow @114.

And the motion is on and has second north east/easterly flow written all over it as we gain. And move on !!!

gfs-0-114.png

Incoming- going to be an epic 6z..here

gfs-0-126.png

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By Tuesday evening the 6z gfs sets up a northwesterly with -10c uppers. If that happens, then I can die happy!

Anyway, the 6z is more amplified than the 0z which is a relief. The UKMO has me a bit concerned this morning but let's hope it will get more amplified this afternoon.

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3 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

Is that a light Thames streamer I see there😀

I don't know about a streamer but the model output has suggested Kent may see the snow showers become heavier and more frequent during Sunday night into Monday.

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Just now, tight isobar said:

Incoming- going to be an epic 6z..here

gfs-0-126.png

Excluding the slight correction west it looks the same as the 0z.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

By Tuesday evening the 6z gfs sets up a northwesterly with -10c uppers. If that happens, then I can die happy!

Anyway, the 6z is more amplified than the 0z which is a relief. The UKMO has me a bit concerned this morning but let's hope it will get more amplified this afternoon.

I spotted that it has a look of january 4th 2010 about it, not as cold thou!

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Excluding the slight correction west it looks the same as the 0z.

Given...but its the 6z...the wobbly suite imo- so need compare or upgrade on this operational...and thats what we have...

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At 150  the mild sector is squeezed evn more on the 6z   a upgrade in that regard

gfsnh-1-150.png

Edited by weirpig

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gfs-1-156.png?6gfs-1-162.png
A better angle of attack from the Atlantic, if that front can approach vertically aligned with the UK then that's a recipe for a big snow event. 

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gfs-0-162.png?6gfs-0-168.png

Greater Disruption

It's also worth noting the difference in the low coming out of Canada.

Edited by frosty ground

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