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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Pretty good agreement between GFS and ECM all the way out to la la land.

Only trouble is they are both dire for cold.

If it weren't for the SSW I think it would be very quiet in here. 

I'm hoping for the Azores high to displace West quicker than currently modelled, between 20th and 23rd, which could give us a cold end to Feb.

Barring that it is hoping for the SSW to do its thing and bring a very cold first half of March.

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Something is afoot, I've been posting stunning GEFS charts in the extended range for days now,  I believe our (coldies) patience will ultimately be richly rewarded!:):cold:

Hi Frosty. 

I really hope something is afoot in the extended range. It's been the same all winter though.... I can remember the end of November that there were signs of a cold spell showing for mid december, then that moved to show the Christmas period then it was put back to the period just after the start of the new year then again moved to the middle of Jan then again it moved to early Feb..... Then again moved to mid Feb and now we're looking at hopefully end of feb or sometime in March.... yes we've had some brief cold shots but mainly from North westlies which have produced snow to some regions dare I say it North of the M4 lol..... I HATE that road but all the occasions the models have been predicting bitter Northerly  or Easterlies have never come off. Maybe a brief Northerly but nothing that's lasted more than a day or 2.  I'm not giving up hope but it's so hard for us to get into a proper cold spell these days and for the models to get it Wright when its not a straight atlantic weather pattern with the usual low pressures coming in from the West. 

 

Keep up the great posts frosty, always love reading them and the way you post images as well to show what is being forcast...☺🖒

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Interestly thie latter stages of this mornings ecm look similar to what the Gfs was showing on its quick route to cold runs a few days back. Namely the azores high ridging across the uk towards scandinavia. Could it be that the ECM is simply homing in on a similar ultimate outcome to the cold gfs runs but just at a more sedate pace.  Just a thought.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Ah well ,to add insult to injury perhaps an early taste of spring from both ecm and gfs out at day ten:rofl:

h850t850eu-3.png

ecmt850.240-2.png

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Jesus. Even I need a shot of Kraken with the models this morning. Dismal viewing. Lucky I have blind hope that things will change for the better the next few days, this is more tense than some choice episodes of Breaking Bad.

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Incredible model watching recently we have gem which along side the jma is best for cold solutions.

Something got to give,

but I'm really disappointed to see consistent runs from the ECM and GFS which are similar.

But then I expect with such massive changes in the stratosphere then perhaps it's just background signals.

I was pretty confident last week but now I'm 50/50 maybe to little to late.

And perhaps an early spring could well be the outlook.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

At last we’re seeing some convergence in the models. Unfortunately they’re converging on a bit of a waiting game with the high not able to get far enough north at this point.

As BA has noted you can tell by the ECM spreads that we’re seeing some solutions dropping some colder air south to the east which then gets advected west by day ten.

Overall there’s now a bigger cluster of east ne flows showing past the 20th February in the ECM ensembles.

That’s good news then.

Hopefully we will see a white warning from you fairly soon then :yahoo::pardon:

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13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ah well ,to add insult to injury perhaps an early taste of spring from both ecm and gfs out at day ten:rofl:

h850t850eu-3.png

ecmt850.240-2.png

If we cant have cold & Snow , i would settle for early spring:rofl:

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That’s good news then.

Hopefully we will see a white warning from you fairly soon then :yahoo::pardon:

I think I’m going to ditch the code system! It’s gathering dust! :D

Its quite a climb down from the ECM op , looks like the once superstar has made another couple of films which bombed at the box office! 

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Looking at the ECM ensembles, the key timeframe seems to be 24/25th February for a majority to go blocked to the north/east. Far from a consensus though and not clear if it would be a cold block for the UK.

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No UKMO extended this morning I'm afraid it hasn't updated for whatever reason

t144 shows high pressure starting to move over the UK settling things down

UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.6e9cf3867a0970e6e666db3b27c43432.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

At last we’re seeing some convergence in the models. Unfortunately they’re converging on a bit of a waiting game with the high not able to get far enough north at this point.

As BA has noted you can tell by the ECM spreads that we’re seeing some solutions dropping some colder air south to the east which then gets advected west by day ten.

Overall there’s now a bigger cluster of east ne flows showing past the 20th February in the ECM ensembles.

Day 10 onwards though Nick, its always at that timeframe! And as it comes into a reliable timeframe they pick up complications such as shortwave/trough disruption/phasing ect, it's a rinse repeat UK cycle... 

 

Not to be overly negative I just struggle to keep being positive about long term when something always pops up and ruins it as it gets towards the more reliable timeframe

 

 

Edited by Weathizard

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at the ECM ensembles, the key timeframe seems to be 24/25th February for a majority to go blocked to the north/east. Far from a consensus though and not clear if it would be a cold block for the UK.

Looks potentially colder than it did for the past few runs as the e euro uppers go neg with the blocking gaining strength and traction (and some members drifting towards Iceland) 

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10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think I’m going to ditch the code system! It’s gathering dust! :D

Its quite a climb down from the ECM op , looks like the once superstar has made another couple of films which bombed at the box office! 

At least we coldies have a sense of humour, essential in a British winter:D..still extremely encouraging longer term signals..we just need to ride this out and then let the good times roll!!:):cold:

Ps..thanks for your kind comments TheBeastFromTheEast:cold::)

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GFS 00z Op and mean most certainly on the warmer side of the mean which instead stays around 0

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.7ff0494a9e0f1f0f605f7da9ea181e2e.png

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No quick road to cold I'm like the gfs with a  southerly then south easterly high pressure moving north/east  baby steps I'm keeping my towel in hand. Over  the years I have seen us a southerly then south easterly then cold easterly we might have to wait a bit longer for that easterly...:D

IMG_0518.PNG

IMG_0519.PNG

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May the problem here be that the warming is to fast and to strong and basically cuts rather than disrupts the PV. This means that the flow does not become confused but more marked.

This leaves us with 2 distinct lobes of the PV, which in themselves allow the Jet to continue on the SE exit of the lobes.

 

The models are picking up amplification, but whichever it picks up first flattens the other, hence when we see the Pacific ridge go up we go flat and vice versa.

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10 hours ago, ghoneym said:

I figured from earlier Fyrirstaoa means "obstacle" what does Hryggur mean? 

Hryggur in this context means 'ridge' - Atlantic ridge presumably, not 'sorry' which appears as the primary definition on Google translate.  I take the coloured border of those plots to be indicative of the wider pattern that you can't see - may be wrong.

In other news, the SSW appears to have had a strange effect:

gfsgwo_1.thumb.png.3efcd0a9497054b45a0c199624f4e5dd.png

Oh dear!

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hryggur in this context means 'ridge' - Atlantic ridge presumably, not 'sorry' which appears as the primary definition on Google translate.

In other news, the SSW appears to have had a strange effect:

gfsgwo_1.thumb.png.3efcd0a9497054b45a0c199624f4e5dd.png

Oh dear!

Thanks, I was reading a bit more this morning and thats the assumption I came to also. That is one confused looking chart also!

@Quicksilver1989 that global temperature trend chart from 1900 - 2012 is in Fahrenheit, so then showing -17 deg C drop on the blob you point out over a century? Must be Celsius I assume?

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1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Thanks, I was reading a bit more this morning and thats the assumption I came to also. That is one confused looking chart also!

@Quicksilver1989 that global temperature trend chart from 1900 - 2012 is in Fahrenheit, so then showing -17 deg C drop on the blob you point out over a century? Must be Celsius I assume?

From the scaling it looks like it is between -0.5 to -1.0C :)

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