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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


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6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Indeed Nick.  We can not dismiss the ECM like some members are doing - that’s pure denial.  We probably need to wait for the rest of the ECM suite but a number of ECM / EPS runs are saying no to a quick tropospheric response. 

Don't think there's to many in denial. Knowing are uk luck it will be on the money . Whatever does it take for this country to have a decent cold spell ? It's unbelievable ?

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Evening All  Ice Cold hope your still with us .... So the much touted SSW is coming into view & here’s my thoughts + timelines of when / where to expect it... We have seen lots of p

Well it's probably fair to say that I've been rather quiet on these forums for the last few years really, especially since 2013. After 15 years of internet weather watching, and more importantly,

Well - ho hum - let's have a sit rep. My eyes are hanging out on stalks.  The pacific first - engine of the climate system. How is our AAM looking in the face of the current high amplitude MJO?

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27 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A chart made by Paul123 (NL, https://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=Forum&articleid=138&reference=ref261795&threadpage=7)

Day 30 is SSW taking place. Black line is AO blue line temperature De Bilt. On average we see a drop in AO. I find it hard to understand the EC 10 day NH chart.

effect ssw ao.png

Jason Furtado tweeted similar within the last 10 days, does this person have NAO too.. given NAO positive reflex ahead of SSW is another counter element to MJO imprint on models..

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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Don't think there's to many in denial. Knowing are uk luck it will be on the money . Whatever does it take for this country to have a decent cold spell ? It's unbelievable ?

Well I could suggest why it's becoming harder to get one nowadays but I won't make many friends in here if I do :rofl:.

Don't give up yet though, the GFS is good and the UKMO is leaning more towards that direction. I think the thing I found surprising is the notion that it was guaranteed to filter down to the atmosphere very quickly but SSW's vary to a great extent in their behaviour and approach time.

Combine that with a moderate La Nina and yes it becomes a bit harder. Just look at today's global temperature anomalies. The pattern over North America is a warm SE US and cold NE Canada/Greenland, an absolute classic La Nina signature that coincides with a strong Atlantic and positive NAO. Although its all the way in the Pacific, a La Nina is often associated with a positive late winter NAO and mild Spring... not always the case though as 1955 and 1956 for example were very cold across NH land masses during late winter and early Spring.

Forecast Image

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The thing I find surprising is that both the GFS and UKMO have improved from their earlier outputs after moving closer to the ECM.

The ECM has been unfortunately relentless in its downward spiral and so one would have thought the GFS and UKMO would have continued to follow it after already backtracking towards it earlier.

 

Hi Nick, out of all the 12z today , i found ECM act quite aggressively with the EPO ..around 120-144 mark... its like it retrogressed a good thousand miles in 24 hours ..what do you think ? 

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.d2e8a2f040b136d500110e92e81864fe.gifECH1-144.thumb.gif.53d5a2761061d6e5ccd498ee7aa3a54b.gif

 

 

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168 on the mean looks encouraging, but it goes naff after that

556E54F0-573F-4CB5-A22D-FF616F784A6E.thumb.png.dcfdfa65ab84b0025ead92794801a8e6.png

graph format doesn’t fill one with optimism either, other than the op seems to be milder end of a mild set towards the end relative to what we might expect to see after viewing the GEFS

226902F4-63DE-458C-BF1C-3F4A32A75A4A.thumb.png.a980495358f789cca5d6a78da6113b99.png

 

Edited by karlos1983
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I'm refraining from commenting on the models at the moment, as I suspect they will continue to show quite varying fayre for the latter part of the month; the effects of the stratospheric warming can't be determined just yet, so expect further about turns in the days ahead - quite probably to a colder drier theme. Best treat the models with wide margin for error at the moment, and not get too hung up on every intra run.

 

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6 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS and ECM at day 8.

 

One of them has to give in shortly as the differences are just ludicrous,although makes for fascinating viewing.:)

 

gfs..gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.1e9a91de9bd2a18c90634be6270a6def.png..ecm..ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.c29ad9ef43a37c1413fd2b498c6fdaca.png

One of them looks like a copy of the current state of the  stratosphere, the other looks like a completely unharmed polar vortex.

Edited by Snowy L
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41 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Indeed...

I type as i feel...would be good if some other moaning -pessimistic-/ post liking- lamb followers tryed the same ..aye!??

And factored in cross data...without seeing what they assume-...without any decent analysis- and/or facts!!!

 

I’ll give it a go....

i believe that ecm is about as poor as blues..

until all models agree on complete outcome instead of flip flopping like this it’s all pointless looking that far..

tbh I’d rather read your posts as I’m crap at this..

we await the next critical runs with interest ?

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5 minutes ago, shotski said:

Get the mild in and the cold will follow....... at least thats what the EPS show. 

66F3ED0C-E599-4376-8D97-3425C63CBBDB.png

Not bad strong Scandi high however the low heights to the south are missing that is important. 

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Quite depressing on here tonight but there is some very good output, I'm not giving up and remain positive about the SSW potential even if it means waiting a bit longer for it..tomorrow's another day..onwards and upwards..chin up coldies!:D

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Re: MJO - first off Roundy,s then MJO VP filtered and Reading via Matthews. P7 remains solid, i think P 8 in with a healthy shout too.. viz a viz GFS moving thru - so this next 7 days will say via MJO whether SSW events lead an oceanic or atmospheric response in the atmosphere.

Given he have a huge template MJO Wave to examine - perfect storm & perfect opportunity all at once!

image.thumb.png.2cb83aa1127d2374f90dce1480ddd262.pngimage.thumb.png.d81acde8150071a1a670a1e7cdc8df63.pngimage.thumb.png.3826237ae772cf9a18135b03e9e10c4a.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, damianslaw said:

I'm refraining from commenting on the models at the moment, as I suspect they will continue to show quite varying fayre for the latter part of the month; the effects of the stratospheric warming can't be determined just yet, so expect further about turns in the days ahead - quite probably to a colder drier theme. Best treat the models with wide margin for error at the moment, and not get too hung up on every intra run.

 

I’m with you 100% on that. This is the perfect opportunity to step away for a few days with what’s going on and the likely chaos of the chart output. But...at the same time I love the crazy a#se rollercoaster on here of such events. For better or worse, I won’t be able to tear myself away for the next couple of weeks I’m sure. 

From the highs of Friday’s amazing GFS run to the lows of today’s ECM. To the not knowing what tomorrow will bring. 

Now, does that make me a thrill seeker or (considering how most cold spell chases end up) a masochist?? ?

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Maybe too many of us are expecting a QTR however it is a record breaking reversal for the time of year and it seems to sustain this reversal for quite some time, which is additionally impressive. I’m a bit baffled by ECM as to me it looks like there is very little imprint from this event, if this was a normal SSW I’d somewhat get it.

F263A620-F0CF-4641-BFAC-190C54F66B85.thumb.png.374cd715288e0fbd068be669f803532d.png

Edited by Daniel*
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17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not bad strong Scandi high however the low heights to the south are missing that is important. 

Not necessarily though, depending on where those low heights set up? Some flabby Iberian affair and we could easy end up getting warmer air in the mix fed westwards. 

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From ECMWF website I give you these charts for MSLP

 + 168 5a80a9bc65447_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_33_29.thumb.png.c8cf40d763443bb391c8213fe8849df4.png  +192  5a80a9c281a35_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_33_42.thumb.png.eb58c204646a0ac1a7eef47f5b8356d1.png  +216 5a80a9c85777f_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_33_52.thumb.png.57152943528b959c5eef0c8bc5986598.png  +2405a80a9ce229b7_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_34_01.thumb.png.95f2a90f5549b82491d36b319c55942b.png

a wee explanation what the colours represent below. Basically this the deeper the purple the lower the confidence.

5a80aa59c7065_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_40_14.thumb.png.8e0cc7ff80cbff81e9cb629359b325c3.png

A flavour of the 500mb height charts also

+ 2165a80aaa4b9ce3_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_37_31.thumb.png.ce357935fdd727042715efaa0aab98d6.png. +240 5a80aaaecf478_ScreenShot2018-02-11at20_37_41.thumb.png.31d85f30d9752c22d8bb04b130262da5.png

These are not charts I am overly familiar with, and they may look this way for confidence level at longer range a lot, or maybe they don't.....

 

 

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4 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Not necessarily though, depending on where those low heights set up? Some flabby Iberian affair and we could easy end up getting warmer air in the mix fed westwards. 

Any to the south / south east will do much more good than harm. I guess we would be severely prohibited from achieving CAA with that cold air advection without low heights it ain’t going to happen. Think of it like stating blades instead of being on ice you’re on granite low heights are very important to have or it will collapse quickly and it will be dry cold which doesn’t really appeal to most on here. 

Edited by Daniel*
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I am offering a simple and not very scientific analogy as to the conundrum faced by the models in working out where we go from here. Run a hot bath add cold water and mix. Burnt fingers, hidden hot spots just when you think it safe. How can models address that on a global scale. Give them a chance? Fiw I have a feeling that the high will migrate to Scandinavia SSW or not. ?

Edited by Weathervane
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Evening All and I sincerely hope you have had a great weekend and enjoyed your weather:cold:  To much emphasis on the SSW as far as Im concerned and a lot more factors need to come togeather in the Jigsaw before we can go anywhere with deep cold from the East, To much intense cold over Hudson bay, as models predict in the next ten days releasing a very strong jet stream ,halting our build of high pressure across Scandinavia . I might be wrong , I might be right,  but late March and April spells winds from the East , Stats for the Uk go to prove this evolution ,  I predict the same weather which we have had in the last few months to carry on for a little while yet....Watch this Space! :hi:

SSW.png

SSWX.png

i2OHZE9.gif

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6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Any to the south / south east will do much more good than harm. I guess we would be severely prohibited from achieving CAA with that cold air advection without low heights it ain’t going to happen. Think of it like stating blades instead of being on ice you’re on granite low heights are very important to have or it will collapse quickly and it will be dry cold which doesn’t really appeal to most on here. 

Yes, agreed. As always, another cog that needs to land perfectly. I’d rather have a Bartlett this time of year than a chilly dry SE’ly! 

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