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Paul

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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ECM disrupts the trough further West and the result is prolonged cold nirvana. :bomb::drunk-emoji::cold: GEM scary (bad, too far East ), GFS alright, UKMO very good.

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Ec op finding the ‘snow makers’ - those small defined upper troughs are what we want to see. whether they survive to the next run ??  Anf they will drift about a bit if they do. 

 

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36 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes a blinding run from ECM sir:hi:

Looks like its gona have plenty in the tankers sir!!!!

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Looks to me this upcoming spell was more accurately reflected in the T300+ charts from a couple of weeks back then t180 + charts from last week.

That is.....assuming it doesn't all go Pete Tong!!!!

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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

On what the models are showing? 

These will be the most important output as we move through next week. What would be your commentary with regards to this? Looking forward to the updated fax charts. 

IMG_0448.PNG

I was only commenting on what that particular run of the GFS was showing. Like people normally do on each update of each model while it is rolling out. I've even said the ECM is different and a middle ground would deliver for many, but apparently that means I am moaning, just blindly following one model and its impacts on Stoke according to another poster.

Too early to know how things will develop from the fax charts. The next few updates should tell us more. 

Again the ECM is less progressive than the GFS but looks a bit further east with that front than it's previous update. Precipitation making it far as Wales and western fringes of England. It also mixes out the mild sector far more quickly than the GFS.

I reckon by tomorrow afternoon or maybe Sunday morning the main models should start to come to some agreement on that but small changes sill possible thereafter. 

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Indeed .. the GFS and ECM are quite different right now so it is unwise to come to a conclusion about either of them. I have no idea which one will be closer to verifying (in terms of fact rather than hope )

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As I'm a neutral observer!

I'll just deliver it to you straight.

Very cold with lots of snow potential, as with any spell in the UK some areas do better than others but the set up looks to be generous here to give as many places the chance of snow.

The cold pool over Europe isn't going to be displaced any time soon with the UK at the boundary between that and Atlantic fronts.

 

 

A few minor spikes in the ens-milder- blips..

However with the entrenched cold id expect to see these dropping below as we gain..

6z/12z...should shed this light.

Any mild that does fall in looks very breif b4 back into a cold flow...

All good imo!!!

MT8_London_ens (1).png

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39 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Ha ha ha are you having a laugh Crewe . Your a moaning old sod . What do you want -40 and 40 foot snow drifts (that would be good but ant gonna happen ) . Here you go 850 temps from now until the end on the ECM . If that ant a very good cold spell then I'm Bloody Mary poppins 😁

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I guess people need reminded, blue equals turn your hive up, not equals snow. Nice to see the regional enthusiasm suggest something else, unless that's what's being championed. Well done to Ingham  Tight isobar, Tamara and co to pick up the cold spell so far out though against a mild showing bias.

Fingers xd for precip where it's cold, still in the regime of anything could happen which is good enough for my hunt for 18th day of falling.

Edited by geordiekev

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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As I'm a neutral observer!

I'll just deliver it to you straight.

Very cold with lots of snow potential, as with any spell in the UK some areas do better than others but the set up looks to be generous here to give as many places the chance of snow.

The cold pool over Europe isn't going to be displaced any time soon with the UK at the boundary between that and Atlantic fronts.

 

 

Absolutely nick fantastic stuff.

And people need to relax a bit now as you suggested cold air enriched across Europe.

And the ECM at 168 onwards incredible lows diving south dragging cold from both northwest and east.

Absolutely stunning.

I found my towel and I'm going to keep hold of it for awhile.

JMA been tasty to gem just falls apart.

The GFS not to be sniffed at either.

Let the fun begin.

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53 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As I'm a neutral observer!

I'll just deliver it to you straight.

Very cold with lots of snow potential, as with any spell in the UK some areas do better than others but the set up looks to be generous here to give as many places the chance of snow.

The cold pool over Europe isn't going to be displaced any time soon with the UK at the boundary between that and Atlantic fronts.

 

 

It's a green light:yahoo:sorry for stealing your thunder! Charts look amazing ecm is into the freezer :cold:.

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Ha ha ha are you having a laugh Crewe . Your a moaning old sod . What do you want -40 and 40 foot snow drifts (that would be good but ant gonna happen ) . Here you go 850 temps from now until the end on the ECM . If that ant a very good cold spell then I'm Bloody Mary poppins 😁

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Cheers 4 that mary😉

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UKMO extended has returned after failing to update last night

It has a more westerly flow arriving along with some precipitation maybe turning to snow on its leading edge

ukm2.2018020900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.d6831043eeb7296051a3ebdf170daacb.png

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What we need to remember is not every model or every run will show the same! There will be run to run differences that’s just normal but what we do no is it’s going to turn cold probably very cold and some places will get a good dump!! 

Just enjoy and things will pop up out of the blue

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has returned after failing to update last night

It has a more westerly flow arriving along with some precipitation maybe turning to snow on its leading edge

ukm2.2018020900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.d6831043eeb7296051a3ebdf170daacb.png

I’m thinking any return to a westerly flow will be temporary as the HP starts ridging toward the GIN corridor around next weekend into week 2. Then perhaps a reload N/NE type...

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

As I'm a neutral observer!

I'll just deliver it to you straight.

Very cold with lots of snow potential, as with any spell in the UK some areas do better than others but the set up looks to be generous here to give as many places the chance of snow.

The cold pool over Europe isn't going to be displaced any time soon with the UK at the boundary between that and Atlantic fronts.

Thanks with you and SM on board just need Ian Brown now, where is he ?

These are not "I don't believe it charts", but like buses nice to see so many -10c turn up next week over the uk

GFS 0Z 5/2

h850t850eu43RPKD7Nee.png

GFS 0Z 6/2

h850t850euMO9UJ7MX.png

GFS 9/2

h850t850euWSP2733Mee.png

 

Go away

daffodil-snow.jpg

Edited by stewfox

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ICON brings the deeper* cold in quicker!

icon-1-84.png?02-06icon-1-90.png?02-00

Edited by karlos1983

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