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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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My take on the Gfs 18z next week, becoming much colder nationwide with frosts, ice and with snow in places, briefly milder end to next week followed by further cold shots from the NW with a risk of snow. Hoping once the cold arrives properly early next week that it really digs in with no mild intrusions!:):cold-emoji:

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What like this Feb 

IMG_1195.PNG

Sort of, not sure I'm happy with propogation but I will leave that for the srat experts and plus we will need to wait a long while yet before we can be sure of effects.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sort of, not sure I'm happy with propogation but I will leave that for the srat experts and plus we will need to wait a long while yet before we can be sure of effects.

Yer to be fair though it was gonna be better and the high was gonna stretch right up to Greenland but it didn't . All looking very interesting at the min tho 🙂

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In other news, water is wet and ice is cold .........

ec46 looks to stay cold weeks 3 and 4. moreso 3 but 4 is usuallly lala land ...

The flat-lining needs to be viewed with minamal take..

The AZHP will not model itself and go with model dynamics..however, the flatline synops' is deep /mass lobe formation!!..

And data sheets prove its as unreliable-as the england team in a tournament.

 

Data issues in the alaskan, sector are of major outlook for consiquence-of our miniscule part...

-pm island-..

Anyway with your knowledge its daft ..on my forte/explanation.

Edited by tight isobar

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38 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That's what Helen said yes temperatures 6 4 did not look right.

Not too different to ECM op run, but bear in mind these are max temperatures having started out at between -5C and -10C, and probably assumes full sunshine. It'll only be that warm for a couple of hours, most of the day will be below zero. Weds/Thurs/Fri looks more like 1C or 2C though

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Quite a warming event on the 10hPa charts but is it to late to see any effects from this? If it was to happen. Obviously it's out in the realms of FI.

gfsnh-10-234.png?18gfsnh-10-252.png?18gfsnh-10-288.png?18gfsnh-10-300.png?18

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Absolutely beautiful 

EE316B89-06A3-4B79-B468-C5091D66BA8E.thumb.gif.81aa8d9a5d8cecf75241541af1dbb7d0.gif

slight warm up next weekend of sorts, but that’s miles away

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Haven't followed or posted in a while. Been reading some of the comments and it seems the weather is going to get colder. Examining the charts it appears that the -10 isotherm will be making an appearance once more. However I don't see much snow in the mix. Western and Eastern extremeities will be exposed so some snow on Tuesday but any frontal snow looks to be fizzling our quickly from the West. This then leaves a slack Easterly followed by a more Westerly regime by the following weekend. Yes it's looking cold perhaps very cold in places, but snow may be hard to find. Strong frosts and ice with days near freezing seem more likely but only relatively until the Atlantic comes back again. The charts seen wintery for the next week or so but not particularly exceptional and I always find the more exceptional charts gets watered down by t-48.

I will go with a 3-4 day nationwide cold snap beginning Monday with some snow possibilities almost anywhere but no disruptive of heavy snow anywhere. Emphasis being on the cold and frost.

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10 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Quite a warming event on the 10hPa charts but is it to late to see any effects from this? If it was to happen. Obviously it's out in the realms of FI.

gfsnh-10-234.png?18gfsnh-10-252.png?18gfsnh-10-288.png?18gfsnh-10-300.png?18

I think that would propagate down to troposphere relatively very quickly and I’m no expert but that is ‘flaming’ impressive perhaps by end of the month. That would be very exciting to watch. 

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13 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Quite a warming event on the 10hPa charts but is it to late to see any effects from this? If it was to happen. Obviously it's out in the realms of FI.

gfsnh-10-234.png?18gfsnh-10-252.png?18gfsnh-10-288.png?18gfsnh-10-300.png?18

Quite possibly why the CFS, over the past few days, is keen on a cold March.

 

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If anyone is looking for “evidence” of a surface level impact from the impending SSW (should it actually verify of course), then I suggest you look through the NH Profile on the GEFS members. Some really stonking hemispheric patterns taking shape, at a time when I very much doubt the trophespheric effects would even be fully felt (history shows us the average lag time is 10 days or more). So, if next week isn’t enough to contend with, look up over the next few weeks. Things could be cooking up...

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Best post of the day SK indeed, with frontal snow and progression eastwards I don’t think it will be clear until the day itself really even before that 2 days really in advance models might make a good call, it can be quite unpredictable. Again keep an eye on radar. Snow showers well you have a radar it will be largely nowcasting, one can have a good idea where these are most likely to be eastern counties & I think they’ll be more frequent, the, more south and east you are. The times I’ve seen models show no convective precip while reality is very different - best cold spell since 2013 at least imminent across lowland Southern England. Enjoy every moment as one never really knows when the next one will come, March looks intriguing...but I can’t see the same in next few years. I think this mild cycle has done its thing.

Edited by Daniel*

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Guest

BROADSCALE PATTERN CHANGES REPORT - PART 2:  NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND ARCTIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND ANALYSIS

I have just posted part 2 of my 3 part report on the specialist teleconnection thread. This contains a cross-model analysis with Northern Hemisphere 850 and surface temperatures. For those of you who are interested, such as regular readers of my reports, here is the link.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89161-learning-about-teleconnection-science-and-background-signals/?page=5

Alternatively, just click on the chart below: 

 

Edited by Guest

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3 hours ago, Mucka said:

GFS second Atlantic attack results in more snow. So far 6th/8th/9th looking key dates for frontal snow prospects.

gfs-2-180.png?18

Is that rain I see Below the m4😣

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Even small changes in the 2/3 day time-frame can make a difference.

GFS 00z has the cold pool to our SE further NW this run, could trigger some shower activity. Thames streamers, I mean if you like that sort of thing.:wink:

gfs-0-66.pnggfs-2-66.png

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GFS again is very progressive with the front early next week, and slow to.mix out the mild sector meaning more of a wintry mix or just rain for many.

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS again is very progressive with the front early next week, and slow to.mix out the mild sector meaning more of a wintry mix or just rain for many.

Yes, I have commented in my regional thread that I'm not really seeing what all the hype is about with this coming spell. GFS shows Tuesday's precipitation to be light and patchy and barely accumulates any falls. 

The Canadian vortex is still looking quite strong out to the mid term too, precluding any real decent build of heights where we want them. 

I think later on into Feb is when we'll catch a break in terms of proper high latitude blocking (hopefully Greenland based).

Edited by CreweCold

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Great 00z again. 

I don't get it? I'm seeing 2 potentially disruptive snowfall events in the form of fronts, as well as possible snow shower activity in eastern parts. But I'm seeing posts saying there's not going to be much snowfall at all? Am I missing something here? 

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GFS is normally too progresive though. Whereas the ECM is often not progressive enough. A half way house would deliver for many.

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GFS ensembles.

graphe6_1000_261_89___.gif

GFS going for an easing of the cold from the 10th, though hardly mild with mean not getting above 5C, before sliding back toward the freezer in deepest FI.

It may still be that the second half of Feb turns out colder than the first.

Sometimes I think there is a bit of reverse psychology when people bemoan the best cold spell for years as being over hyped but I guess the end game is lying snow.

Fingers crossed many will see that happen.

Edited by Mucka

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16 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Great 00z again. 

I don't get it? I'm seeing 2 potentially disruptive snowfall events in the form of fronts, as well as possible snow shower activity in eastern parts. But I'm seeing posts saying there's not going to be much snowfall at all? Am I missing something here? 

Unfortuntely, and frustratingly, this thread reverts back as a my back yuard thread during cold spells..those downplaying the cold spell in terms of snowfall seem to live on the eastern side.?

As you say, some in the western half, especially away from the coast could have a couple days of persistent frontal snow next week. 

Edited by KTtom

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