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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m not worried, I was just a bit taken back. It’s made more difficult by not seeing individual runs like we get to see in graph format for the GEFS. So I am at risk of contradicting what I said earlier about the mean if the graph has the same look about it as the GEFS did. I.e. couple of very warm runs skewed the mean. :)

An output is an output. For all the great charts, when you drop in a mean chart, you can`t dismiss it just because it isn`t what you hoped for. Going to be nervy viewing.

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14 minutes ago, timboy666 said:

what is a ssw?

It's when the weather gods grab the stratosphere in the middle, give it a damn good squeeze until it pops and sends bits of the troposphere all over the place. With luck on our side one of those bits will be super cold and land on our doorstep. At least that's the closest I get to understanding the process, for a grown up explanation see the stratosphere thread.

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7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

An output is an output. For all the great charts, when you drop in a mean chart, you can`t dismiss it just because it isn`t what you hoped for. Going to be nervy viewing.

Well, a mean chart is just a blend of the model suites members though, not an individual run (to my understanding) So if you’ve got 8 really cold members and 8 reging westerly members there’s probably not going to be a middle ground! One will be wrong and therefore so will the mean! 

My point about the ECM is we don’t get to see without ploughing through that weather.us site viewing each member in isolation what the individual runs are doing. Like that GEFS graph, clearly 2 runs very warm compared to the rest, which will automatically rise the average/mean temperature. Anyway we may derail. 

Edited by karlos1983
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10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended eps stays on track; higher than normal heights to the north, lower than normal heights to the south.  Slight change of emphasis in that towards the later end (days 14-15), the focus of the higher heights is moving west towards eastern Greenland.

Great news :) I expect a colder set on the debilt ext ens after hearing this. 

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Whenever I've seen a mean 1030mb high in a place where it doesn't usually happen, 9/10 it verifies in that place. However, considering the scatter in the diagram for North Sweeden, I won't call it for a few runs yet.

gens-21-1-360.png   graphe4_1000___16.1320754717_65.30364372

NOAA 8-14 starting to see Scandi heights too but still a "work in progress"

814day.03.gif

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17 minutes ago, timboy666 said:

what is a ssw?

 

16 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I won't pretend to know what that is though

pop over to this thread - 

it will give you all the info you need on a Sudden Stratospheric Warming and all the implications that come with it. :)

that goes for anyone else not sure- it has some excellent explanations in there as to how it affects our weather :good:

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well, a mean chart is just a blend of the model suites members though, not an individual run (to my understanding) So if you’ve got 8 really cold members and 8 reging westerly members there’s probably not going to be a middle ground! One will be wrong and therefore so will the mean! 

My point about the ECM is we don’t get to see without ploughing through that weather.us site viewing each member in isolation what the individual runs are doing. Like that GEFS graph, clearly 2 runs very warm compared to the rest, which will automatically rise the average/mean temperature. Anyway we may derail. 

Absolutely, Karlos. That is the concern when `everything` is not on board. Let`s hope (unless it isn`t cold you are after) that the individual members are outliers that are skewing the mean otherwise we have to take the output at face value.

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10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Great news :) I expect a colder set on the debilt ext ens after hearing this. 

I don't think it will be 'super cold' but hopefully trending in the right direction.  Control looks decent.

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35 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I will have you know, after tonight`s output, it is 9 days away just to buck the trend...

Good point 

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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

I think the ECM evolution (high building from the Southwest with the undercut coming from the east instead of the west) is more likely. The warming is going to push the Greenland vortex lobe west into central canada over the coming week so I dont see any real pressure coming from the Atlantic. I think the GFS was toying with the Atlantic undercutting and now it is in a bit of a no mans land. Hopefully it gets on board with the ECM in the next few runs.

For entertainment value, here is an illustration of what can be considered highly feasible going forward from the ECM day 10 given expected secondary SSW influence.

No kidding around here although yes, the caveat applies that it's just one possibility among quite a few. Fact is though, if it's ever going to happen, it's when we have the ingredients in place over the next fortnight.

So yes, I have come to accept that a faster height rise to our NE with a major block advancing west starting around Thursday is an outside option now, but I won't complain if the ridge from the mid-Atlantic proves to be the start of such a progression!

FeasibleECMTastyFrom12z9thFeb18.PNG

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An excellent ECM again.  FWIW my view is a delayed Spring until April.  On that basis with my LRF I think we may see a slower burner re this SSW on its effect for us in the U.K. and Ireland re lock in of cold blocked set up.  Very interesting chart watching, GFS back in the mix.....best I grow my peppers and tomatoes I just bought from ‘a shop’ indoors for a while :cold:

Come Sunday there will be many happy cold bunnies in W and NW.....and Cheshire Gap....look out!

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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The GEFS 12z shows some great wintry potential, think I will be posting a lot more charts similar to these in the coming days..lovely stuff!:cold-emoji:..I know it's deep FI  but it's relevant as it's the range when things could kick off big time..or even sooner if the Ecm is right!!:)

0_384_850tmp.png

11_384_850tmp.png

14_384_850tmp.png

15_384_850tmp.png

17_384_850tmp.png

19_384_850tmp.png

21_384_850tmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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ECM ensembles are a right old mixed, some really great looking runs and some runs probably would embed a 2-3 week cold spell. Equally there are certainly more than a few runs which do nothing and indeed a decent minority blowthe Atlantic back up again, a few just have a shortwave nightmare, and the rest have a cold set-up of varying degrees (some have a UK high, some have the classic Scandi, some evolve a stunning Greenland-Scandi monster high.)

 

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Have to say that the eps are a tad underwhelming given we should be seeing things firming up. The AO/NAO combo less negative than for a few runs. The operational, actually has  less than 30% support with the ridging up to scandi according to the probability charts days 8/10.  Thereafter I suspect another binary look to the extended clusters as per the 00z run with scandi ridge establishing but also an upper euro ridge to our south. 

the strat charts look a little like the Canadian vortex slowly recovering  and perhaps an Atlantic trough as the Asian blocking heads further towards Siberia 

in conclusion, nothing settled yet and possibly a little too much back patting on here after  that 12z ec op! 

lets hope tomorrow retains continuity from the op and ukmo on the mid Atlantic ridge beginning to show 

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I think it's reasonable to say that there are considerable similarities between these two February charts which are only a couple of days apart:

ECM.      image.thumb.gif.bb9c9b132636e48a3028ac5f57455e2b.gif

GFS       image.thumb.png.9edb1d31a4ec14d8def80d77bc330b10.png

and this one too:

               image.thumb.png.2152c56a04ef12d4b2344748a9d1e965.png

Just check out the date of that last chart  :shok::shok::shok:

That's just a bit too close for comfort!  Not saying the Thames will freeze over or anything, but if the balls all end up in the right pockets we will certainly need to dig out those thermals....

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7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

  image.thumb.png.2152c56a04ef12d4b2344748a9d1e965.png

Just check out the date of that last chart

That's just a bit too close for comfort! 

Further to my last post, not wishing to be taken for a scurrilous ramper, I would add that we currently have nothing like the extent or depth of low uppers over Europe which were evident in 1962/3 and which contributed to the record low temperatures that year.  There is therefore no chance of similarly arctic conditions developing on this occasion.  And I am not related to Michael Fish, either.....

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1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

Further to my last post, not wishing to be taken for a scurrilous ramper, I would add that we currently have nothing like the extent or depth of low uppers over Europe which were evident in 1962/3 and which contributed to the record low temperatures that year.  There is therefore no chance of similarly arctic conditions developing on this occasion.  And I am not related to Michael Fish, either.....

Glad you qualified your ramp with some realism  

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Just now, Sky Full said:

Further to my last post, not wishing to be taken for a scurrilous ramper, I would add that we currently have nothing like the extent or depth of low uppers over Europe which were evident in 1962/3 and which contributed to the record low temperatures that year.  There is therefore no chance of similarly arctic conditions developing on this occasion.  And I am not related to Michael Fish, either.....

And to add Greenland had its warmest winter..  The polar vortex over North America remains relentless adding fuel to the jet stream towards the Uk 

vortex.png

vortexx.png

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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

An axis on the 850 hpa wind to cheer @Steve Murr

09AFA79B-AF17-4999-9013-88E4E68CCAEC.thumb.jpeg.83372e469fc9ba69590f37cb44f49ce3.jpeg

yes

standard vertical profile of a ridge pumping NNE out of the azores.....

Edited by Steve Murr
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