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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 12z has high pressure slowly building up from the south 06z had a deep low

gfs-0-198.thumb.png.8b252f755e7b8f63204339d3a0f79999.pnggfs-0-204.thumb.png.6071c976868ab833fdd68b1fee345171.png

We're getting there but jeez it's painfull to watch. Fi might be fun tho.

Edited by That ECM

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GFS taking the long way round but its getting there-

gfsnh-0-234-1.thumb.png.009dc2a35d549fdbc722dfade867ca70.png

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Yup, finally some convergence between ECM & GFS - and GEM too.

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and as if by magic, a feasible outcome follows

gfsnh-0-234.png?12

propped up by low heights to our Southeast

 likey :)

Edited by karlos1983
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So it seems to be round about the 17th Feb we should be keeping an eye on things becoming more interesting.

ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.0438a78ddb63ff8c67d1512bc4af5ab6.pnggemnh-0-192.thumb.png.4b730a00abeeba26a332bdda529cee52.pnggfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.476fe8989bf69cebc88ec8828f7aa568.png

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Gfs  12z very similar to ECM 0z at the 240 mark. With minus 10 uppers coming in from the east.

Gfs has moved towards the ECM in that regard.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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And here it is - just where it's been since November. @ T+loads!:cold::D

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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IS it gonna migrate to Greenland from Scandinavia 😲

IMG_1340.PNG

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

And here it is - just where it's been since November. A T+loads!:cold::D

Netweather GFS Image

except this time the SSW is at t+not much... :wink:

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Not sure what we would call that high...

gfsnh-0-372.png?12

EuraisiaGreenyScandiAtlantic High :pardon:

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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

IS it gonna migrate to Greenland from Scandinavia 😲

IMG_1340.PNG

It does sort of 😁 Lovely run that . About time the GFS read the script . 

IMG_1341.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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Good to see the gfs smelling the coffee but I think the actual outcome will be much, much better than this both in terms of snowfall and cold. Looking forward to viewing the ens.

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure what we would call that high...

gfsnh-0-372.png?12

EuraisiaGreenyScandiAtlantic High :pardon:

we could call it...

very-nice-high-five.thumb.jpg.5478cdbc6c64bde134f6ce3d6d6b1fff.jpg

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I know it's Friday but where is everyone ?? Am I the only one excited 😊. We have charts like these and it's well quite? 

IMG_1321.PNG

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15 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

except this time the SSW is at t+not much... :wink:

Slack NE/ ENE with minus 10ish uppers.

Isn't that what we had at the weekend! Excuse me if I don't get too excited but it delivered nothing. 

 

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Winter has landed! Only the ENE'rly gale plus the frequent, heavy snow showers remain to be confirmed...:cold::yahoo::D

Netweather GFS Image

 

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26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

and as if by magic, a feasible outcome follows

gfsnh-0-234.png?12

propped up by low heights to our Southeast

 likey :)

Sent with love from Pyeongchang :cold-emoji:

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47 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Ian F retweeted this yesterday so make lf of it what you will. 

 

Highlighting for part about cold pooling from Asia.

 

 

Screenshot_20180209-162618.png

There is a fair difference between ‘cold pooling’ headed west from Asia and a direct hit from a small cold pool vortex chunk from east Asia. 

Anyway, the 12z gfs finds a solution which fits the extended eps clusters 

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22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it's Friday but where is everyone ?? Am I the only one excited 😊. We have charts like these and it's well quite? 

IMG_1321.PNG

<snip>

I think the reason it’s so quiet is we have all been lead up the garden path so many times already this winter with the models. And some have obviously got model fatigue. Yes we have a ssw taking place this weekend. But who’s to say we won’t end up been badly placed for the cold. Think if these charts are showing by the end of next week then perhaps we may see a few more members online. 

Edited by shuggee
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Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Slack NE/ ENE with minus 10ish uppers.

Isn't that what we had at the weekend! Excuse me if I don't get too excited but it delivered nothing. 

 

no, we didn't have HLB. we should have in 10 days or so and whatever it shows now will be different. quite possibly much better. i think thats worth a little excitement. maybe not so much that a bit of wee comes out yet... but still...

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10 minutes ago, terrier said:

I think the reason it’s so quiet is we have all been lead up the garden path so many times already this winter with the models. And some have obviously got model fatigue. Yes we have a ssw taking place this weekend. But who’s to say we won’t end up been badly placed for the cold. Think if these charts are showing by the end of next week then perhaps we may see a few more members online. 

I'll send the Samaritans round Terrier especially after Bournemouth game:help:

 

Chart at the end of next week and if this is still there it'll be quieter tgan now as we'll all be on regionals

Screenshot_20180209-172701.png

Edited by winterof79
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3 minutes ago, terrier said:

I think the reason it’s so quiet is we have all been lead up the garden path so many times already this winter with the models. And some have obviously got model fatigue. Yes we have a ssw taking place this weekend. But who’s to say we won’t end up been badly placed for the cold. Think if these charts are showing by the end of next week then perhaps we may see a few more members online. 

Yer of course i know . But this is definitely the best chance at a proper cold spell , uk wide we have seen for many years . 🙂

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Anywhere may catch some snow showers on Sunday afternoon as shown on the chart below. 

North western areas most favored but showers could blow well inland if the wind is strong enough...

 

51-779UK.GIF?09-12 

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Finally the GFS ensembles are getting more emphatically behind the ssw driven cold spell.

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