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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

and as if by magic, a feasible outcome follows

gfsnh-0-234.png?12

propped up by low heights to our Southeast

 likey :)

Edited by karlos1983
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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

So it seems to be round about the 17th Feb we should be keeping an eye on things becoming more interesting.

ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.0438a78ddb63ff8c67d1512bc4af5ab6.pnggemnh-0-192.thumb.png.4b730a00abeeba26a332bdda529cee52.pnggfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.476fe8989bf69cebc88ec8828f7aa568.png

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

Gfs  12z very similar to ECM 0z at the 240 mark. With minus 10 uppers coming in from the east.

Gfs has moved towards the ECM in that regard.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

And here it is - just where it's been since November. @ T+loads!:cold::D

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
Just now, Ed Stone said:

And here it is - just where it's been since November. A T+loads!:cold::D

Netweather GFS Image

except this time the SSW is at t+not much... :wink:

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Not sure what we would call that high...

gfsnh-0-372.png?12

EuraisiaGreenyScandiAtlantic High :pardon:

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

IS it gonna migrate to Greenland from Scandinavia ?

IMG_1340.PNG

It does sort of ? Lovely run that . About time the GFS read the script . 

IMG_1341.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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comet Enthusiast

comet

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Good to see the gfs smelling the coffee but I think the actual outcome will be much, much better than this both in terms of snowfall and cold. Looking forward to viewing the ens.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure what we would call that high...

gfsnh-0-372.png?12

EuraisiaGreenyScandiAtlantic High :pardon:

we could call it...

very-nice-high-five.thumb.jpg.5478cdbc6c64bde134f6ce3d6d6b1fff.jpg

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

I know it's Friday but where is everyone ?? Am I the only one excited ?. We have charts like these and it's well quite? 

IMG_1321.PNG

IMG_1322.PNG

IMG_1342.PNG

IMG_1343.PNG

IMG_1344.PNG

IMG_1345.PNG

IMG_1346.PNG

IMG_1347.PNG

IMG_1348.PNG

IMG_1349.PNG

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
15 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

except this time the SSW is at t+not much... :wink:

Slack NE/ ENE with minus 10ish uppers.

Isn't that what we had at the weekend! Excuse me if I don't get too excited but it delivered nothing. 

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Winter has landed! Only the ENE'rly gale plus the frequent, heavy snow showers remain to be confirmed...:cold::yahoo::D

Netweather GFS Image

 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

and as if by magic, a feasible outcome follows

gfsnh-0-234.png?12

propped up by low heights to our Southeast

 likey :)

Sent with love from Pyeongchang :cold-emoji:

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
47 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Ian F retweeted this yesterday so make lf of it what you will. 

 

Highlighting for part about cold pooling from Asia.

 

 

Screenshot_20180209-162618.png

There is a fair difference between ‘cold pooling’ headed west from Asia and a direct hit from a small cold pool vortex chunk from east Asia. 

Anyway, the 12z gfs finds a solution which fits the extended eps clusters 

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it's Friday but where is everyone ?? Am I the only one excited ?. We have charts like these and it's well quite? 

IMG_1321.PNG

<snip>

I think the reason it’s so quiet is we have all been lead up the garden path so many times already this winter with the models. And some have obviously got model fatigue. Yes we have a ssw taking place this weekend. But who’s to say we won’t end up been badly placed for the cold. Think if these charts are showing by the end of next week then perhaps we may see a few more members online. 

Edited by shuggee
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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Slack NE/ ENE with minus 10ish uppers.

Isn't that what we had at the weekend! Excuse me if I don't get too excited but it delivered nothing. 

 

no, we didn't have HLB. we should have in 10 days or so and whatever it shows now will be different. quite possibly much better. i think thats worth a little excitement. maybe not so much that a bit of wee comes out yet... but still...

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, terrier said:

I think the reason it’s so quiet is we have all been lead up the garden path so many times already this winter with the models. And some have obviously got model fatigue. Yes we have a ssw taking place this weekend. But who’s to say we won’t end up been badly placed for the cold. Think if these charts are showing by the end of next week then perhaps we may see a few more members online. 

I'll send the Samaritans round Terrier especially after Bournemouth game:help:

 

Chart at the end of next week and if this is still there it'll be quieter tgan now as we'll all be on regionals

Screenshot_20180209-172701.png

Edited by winterof79
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, terrier said:

I think the reason it’s so quiet is we have all been lead up the garden path so many times already this winter with the models. And some have obviously got model fatigue. Yes we have a ssw taking place this weekend. But who’s to say we won’t end up been badly placed for the cold. Think if these charts are showing by the end of next week then perhaps we may see a few more members online. 

Yer of course i know . But this is definitely the best chance at a proper cold spell , uk wide we have seen for many years . ?

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Kieran Explorer

Kieran

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
Posted

Anywhere may catch some snow showers on Sunday afternoon as shown on the chart below. 

North western areas most favored but showers could blow well inland if the wind is strong enough...

 

51-779UK.GIF?09-12 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Control at t240 and then the run gets really good!! And look at the mean @Man With Beard posted as you mentioned about the mean.

IMG_0511.PNG

IMG_0513.PNG

IMG_0514.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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