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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Edited by Catacol

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Right Pub run - you are due us a been on the vodka since noon special  - if not tonight - Friday is fine to lead us into the weekend... 

One of the 'weather lore' bits of model watching was that a) the 18zGFS followed the ECM and, b) the pub run has the habit of sniffing out easterlies. Perfect time to test this vs, the #standard W>E bias...

gfsnh-4-72.thumb.png.836edafb8f377ce564e0592f168a72f8.png

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Interesting how we view the models and are most of us anyway optimistic that HP will develop.....Beeb rating it as a small chance ......also watching Tuesday as the front could bring a covering of snow for many 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The models are now coming online with the transitioning period from the SSW in 4 days - 

This period is still developing & subject to revisions however the limited consensus there is seems to be a diving trough & some ridging North from the azores to formulate a block...

Lots more exciting charts to appear over the next few days, For the bulk of the UK we are looking for -10/-11c uppers to really deliver the goods....

S

A warming such as this with the split almost straight to our north should almost certainly deliver the goods. We have seen frigid cold spells from less. I would be rather disappointed if the best we can manage when all is said and done is -11/-12c uppers (although they are plenty decent enough). I am confident we will see some very snowy periods as well.

Great model watching to come I am sure.

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watch this canadian ridge migrate @114 ....

335D3774-B335-45F9-BAB1-9CC518F6F343.thumb.png.74d448a05f4c352d57be659553ef92ed.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Much improved Arctic high taking shape with -ve AO even by +114

 

9BD47BBB-44A4-4E81-BB42-F4D07B06A916.png

 

Could be even more more valuable given Steve’s acute Observation above 

Edited by ITSY
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Must be honest I think this run at 144 is worse than the 12z at this stage, not to say we won't go on to get the same result.

Lows spawning around Iceland and generally flatter.

Edited by Weathizard
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Thought for a min Pub run was going titus verticus.:wink:

Screenshot_20180208-222541.png

Screenshot_20180208-223000.png

Edited by winterof79

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Thought for a min Pub run was going titus verticus.

Screenshot_20180208-222541.png

Screenshot_20180208-223000.png

Just about scraped home, looked very dodgy mind you... 192 looks very messy compared to the 12z

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All I'm hoping for, at this stage in the proceedings (though the last few years' shenanigans have dented my hopes somewhat!) is that today's Day 10 will be tomorrow's Day 9...:santa-emoji:

Just so long as today's Day 9 isn't tomorrow's Day 10, I guess? What can possibly go wrong!:cold:

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49 minutes ago, fromey said:

Here you go

47CAB129-8A9F-41E8-8FF7-3EDF0850338E.jpeg

D8772E32-7B2E-4DA6-9A8A-93A3445FD63D.jpeg

Gosh wasn't expecting such a nosedive in such short space of time, -5 values for both only one thing significant northern blocking, very very significant..

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It's a bit like whatever path the high res output takes by day 10 there will be some form of Scandi heights.

Now we just have to see it reel in.

 

Oh and the influencing PV centre over NA isn't going anywhere in a hurry but may withdraw enough to clear Greenland. At least that will rule out a west based -Ve NAO for a while lol

 

Edited by chionomaniac
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Even though it's an utter mess, the trend for height rises across Scandi is still very much evident, although this is more of an entire Eastern hemisphere high..

Mess.thumb.png.fc789a9dbd96c1e551249c489d0ce913.png

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Chances of double digit temps at day 10?

gfs-9-234.png?18

Slim. :)

 

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I think we are seeing the slowest evolutionary pattern ever due to the nature of the split. The position and strength of the residual daughter vortex over Hudson Bay showing how important the nature of this split SSW will be.

But great model watching all the same!

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Bit worrying the GFS 18z is so crap 💩. The 6z was similar ?? 🙁

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Don't know if should get shorts and t-shirts out or thermals going of the coments on here.

 

if past experience is anything to go by, the umberella would be a safe bet. 

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Welcome to the VSTR. The lesser known and less liked “Very Slow Tropospheric Response”.

Edited by ITSY
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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think we are seeing the slowest evolutionary pattern ever due to the nature of the split. The position and strength of the residual daughter vortex over Hudson Bay showing how important the nature of this split SSW will be.

But great model watching all the same!

It’s only great if it ends up delivering cold and snow otherwise there’s going my to be a lot of unhappy coldies in here.

The GFS is all over the place between runs and hit the buffers early here with the limpet UK low not detaching cleanly and phasing with the upstream trough.

 

 

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You know what, GFS can be quite the pain in the rump sometimes... I’d be amazed to see such a powerful storm develop and not just end up being a good source of WAA.

Its all about the angle of the flow on the eastern flank of the trough in such a situation and that’s one of GFS’ greatest areas of weakness.

Easier of course to just not have that extra deep trough in the first place!

Edited by Singularity
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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Bit worrying the GFS 18z is so crap 💩. The 6z was similar ?? 🙁

We haven't had a split SSW where the dominant vortex is centred over NA so that is why. We have AAM battling SSW. The default pattern will always be driving the vortex west, whilst at the same time there is a lack of vorticity over Asia which would hold a block just to our east. So any block over Eurasia is diffuse which is probably why modelling keeps showing the vortex making inroads towards the east. And we are right in the mixing zone - as I said the other night, we may be held in no mans land for a while and that is what the models are showing.

The potential reward is great but will we receive it? If we knew the answer then we wouldn't be so addicted to every run!

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Are just stick to this chart . It just feels right and looks right and looks alot better 😉. 

IMG_1315.PNG

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