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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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All's well that ends well..thanks Ecm..what a great model 👍👍👍:cold::D.

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25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ecm much less keen on arctic heights day 6. (than its previous run and other models).  would expect it to be keen given its zonal flow profile from the berlin site

I think it sees it .....

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes day 9 saves an influx of calls to the NW Helpline! However I'm not liking how it gets there, no margin for error with the upstream trough and if the energy doesn't split then we're in trouble.

Overall I give the ECM a code red, I hope it can improve tomorrow.

The day 10 is great but its far too traumatic in getting there!

The thing is though, it gets there despite the precarious appearance because of the SSW impacts... so perhaps the model progression can’t be assessed in the same manner regarding what could go wrong.

As in, as long as there is an overall weakening vortex and building HLB trend, not too much reason to worry at this range.

Just my take on it though in a bid to ease a few nerves :)

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Yes ECM ends well whichever way it's presented

image.thumb.png.f18649d1fad4ec1930db20814f39a217.png

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NH view is a cracker

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:D

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48 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

That ECM day 10 chart is for you . It looks just like a sausage 😁

IMG_1315.PNG

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10 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Looks like December.

Yeah 2010.

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

The thing is though, it gets there despite the precarious appearance because of the SSW impacts... so perhaps the model progression can’t be assessed in the same manner regarding what could go wrong.

As in, as long as there is an overall weakening vortex and building HLB trend, not too much reason to worry at this range.

Just my take on it though in a bid to ease a few nerves :)

Precarious appearances which suddenly clutch a victory from the jaws of defeat don't have a good track record so I'd like to see more separation between the limpet low and the upstream troughing.

The day 9 is saved because of amplification upstream over the Pacific which rides in just in time to help pull the PV back and allow heights to build over the Arctic. That shortwave running east attaches itself to the PV and the pivot action stops the impending tragedy!

I'm happy the ECM finally got there but less than enthused with its highwire act earlier.

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Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!:search:

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14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Have you got a reason for being here ? Check out day 10 ? Oh wait your come back with another stupid comment.🙄

Believe ten day and watch elephants fly:rofl:

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13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That ECM day 10 chart is for you . It looks just like a sausage 😁

IMG_1315.PNG

I’ve eaten too many sausages in my time....

ECM and GFS seem to be singing from the same sheet BROADLY in that it will get colder from a vqtr thanks to the upcoming SSW. 

It remains to be seen the location of blocking and snow etc.

Watch this space I’d say 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!:search:

Never mind day 10 Ed..I would have loved to have seen day 11, 12 and 13!!:D:cold:

More great output today..something is afoot:D

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1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

I’ve eaten too many sausages in my time....

ECM and GFS seem to be singing from the same sheet BROADLY in that it will get colder from a vqtr thanks to the upcoming SSW. 

It remains to be seen the location of blocking and snow etc.

Watch this space I’d say 

Mmm what kind off sausage 😂? Yep starting to build some momentum now some really good charts appearing 😁. 

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46 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

I would tend to agree with your statement.

From an atmospheric perspective this is undoubtably a perfect opportunity to witness and analyse the global effects of an SSW as it occurs. The scientific excitement here is perfectly understandable. 

 However at ground level ,today’s 12z GFS ensemble mean shows a slightly below average temperature profile for the next 16days, so currently very much standard fare for the UK and not a mini ice age as some other comments seem to indicate.

Back to the present,  the current zonal wind speed at 60n 10hpa is still showing a reasonably healthy 26 m/s. So if we are to see a reversal  ( currently scheduled for around midday on 10th Feb ) we should expect to see almost an emergency stop here tomorrow and maybe some improved model runs also.

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i hardly know anything really, but my guess is that the cold situation is looking good, any snow though?

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I think it's one of those things that's got toes on the end!:rofl:

Well I've got my fingers and toes crossed that the latest gfs / ecm  are giving us a glimpse of the BEST winter weather still to come..hopefully afoot of snow and more!:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!:search:

This is a downwelling strat split. The vortex split is still 2 or 3 days away at 10mb. To get a signature like we are seeing in the trop at day 10 which is just over a week from said split at 10mb is a very quick response. Synoptics will then get better and better and better. With such a strong signal I would have thought by Sunday many will be salivating at what is around the corner. Patience Grasshopper, patience.

Edited by comet
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So it's day 10 we are at which should mean that the 9 day T+216 chart on ECMWF and GFS tomorrow should show a similar pattern, or am I talking rubbish again? You never know bot the 00z and 12z may shows almost total similarity to one another and to the 240 h chart this afternoon.

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17 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

 my guess is that the cold situation is looking good, any snow though?

Get the cold in place first..:D..if we get an easterly like some of the models show, the north sea will turn into a snow making machine..I'm quietly confident things will work out very well through the extended outlook..generally cold zonality in the meantime..looking good for coldies!:cold-emoji:

 

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26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Mmm what kind off sausage 😂? Yep starting to build some momentum now some really good charts appearing 😁. 

I shall leave that to your imagination...

I’m still not sure at what stage however we will get cross model synoptic agreement, but I’m expecting it to be very close to day 5

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Just wondering if day 10 will make it to day 6 let alone 1. I think when the models firm up it may all of a sudden bring it to like day 5 or something. Getting ahead of myself now though I think

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1 hour ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

Calm down sausage. We're in with more than a good shout.

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