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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

There is time, there is time.... In a funny sort of way I am glad that nirvana synoptics are not showing and would rather see a blocking trend increase each run as time reels in. That tends to have a much better chance of verifying. So we need now to focus on days 5-6 because these will be our starting points for the colder synoptics. All good this morning.

Yes I can see that POV, keeps expectations down as well and rather slow upgrades than dream charts and slow downgrades.

I thought my post seemed a little churlish given that synoptic would guarantee some locked in cold and edited my post just before you posted.

I will be very interested to see if things do eventually head in this direction because I'm honestly not expecting such an organised trough to make it across the UK as ECM has been showing.

All good though as you say

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Looking through the 20 gefs on gfs there are 14/15 going for an easterly flow in the t+300 time. That is a growing trend. Blocking in different places as you would expect. 

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Just now, That ECM said:

Looking through the 20 gefs on gfs there are 14/15 going for an easterly flow in the t+300 time. That is a growing trend. Blocking in different places as you would expect. 

The thing is though every single easterly that is being shown over the last 72 hours is stayin around 300 hours and not getting any closer!!by now you woild expect it to be around 240 hours!!there have been positive changes early on though so it might show up suddenly a lot earlier!!

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

The thing is though every single easterly that is being shown over the last 72 hours is stayin around 300 hours and not getting any closer!!by now you woild expect it to be around 240 hours!!there have been positive changes early on though so it might show up suddenly a lot earlier!!

240 you say....

8F69944B-E87E-43D7-A66B-5A035F056D92.thumb.png.e0baedfadac22f26733729500777a4aa.png

And I guess an Easterly is soon to follow this ECM chart with heights shooting up to Greenie.

255BAD17-D7E9-4234-9E01-8996A3971A90.thumb.png.502b8a3c2c64af58c1a33f46eb495bb4.png

Might still be all you’re hoping for Shaky :D

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19 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Looking through the 20 gefs on gfs there are 14/15 going for an easterly flow in the t+300 time. That is a growing trend. Blocking in different places as you would expect. 

That's great news, yesterday there were 7/8...I can feel the anticipation growing..could be a cracking late winter / early spring for coldies!!:cold::D

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13 minutes ago, shaky said:

The thing is though every single easterly that is being shown over the last 72 hours is stayin around 300 hours and not getting any closer!!by now you woild expect it to be around 240 hours!!there have been positive changes early on though so it might show up suddenly a lot earlier!!

All at t240 this is growing trend as well. Not nailed of course but a much greater chance than normal. The amount increases as you go further out, some not responding to the ssw as quickly? JFF we should set up a thread and pick your gef for t300 and see who is near the mark.

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ECM trending better but for me the UKMO is looking even better.  Definite hint that the trough will disrupt and undercut into the near continent.  Another good start to the day.

I see my post has disappeared....hope no offence was taken as none was meant...

BFTP

 

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This mornings gem evolves how I would expect things to  

if we head the more ecm route, then I expect more se movement of the trough than ene as per the output. Ukmo is further south by day 5/6 anyway. 

Gfs on its own and perhaps makes the gem a bit more feasible 

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Ok all I can say is the GFS brings in some exciting cold from the west northwest.

And shallow heights to our northeast building with each run especially on the GFS.

Also looking at the stratosphere event on going you can see clearly a huge split with European section of the vortex spinning from the east to west over the south of the uk.

This paves the way for lower heights to our south and by God opens the door to some pretty impressive northern blocking.

As the vortex takes one last gasp of energy and then explodes spewing out cold air already bottled up in the northern hemisphere.

In fact I'm actually blown away by the intensity of cold around.

Most certainly some snow events showing up.

Of coarse still us roasting south coast crew still awaiting a event.

but seen some snowflakes so not all bad.

And from past events I really believe this will be a quick response to the stratosphere this time.

Vortex absolutely ripped apart.

 

Continued from yesterday we have cold outlook firming up.

Quick response from stratosphere warming with a number of cold options gem wants Greenland block ECM wants Greenland,

GFS and gefs want Scandinavia block best option would be Greenland straight northerly or northeasterly.

But then GFS would be easterly but either is good.

GFS has shown Scandinavia block repeatedly since yesterday morning.

I expect to see these exciting charts to continue.

Very exciting and extremely interesting.

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21 minutes ago, shaky said:

The thing is though every single easterly that is being shown over the last 72 hours is stayin around 300 hours and not getting any closer!!by now you woild expect it to be around 240 hours!!there have been positive changes early on though so it might show up suddenly a lot earlier!!

actually shaky, on the 00z, we do indeed have an eastlerly flow established by 240 hrs-

gfsnh-0-240-5.thumb.png.3d838cb0a4e29b78e4a7f7f73ecc22d2.png

this continues right to the end of the run with some decent snow events thrown in

gfsnh-0-324-1.thumb.png.02ca79ac746bf83f68acb27f526351ed.png

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the trend is your friend....

unless its skinny jeans. that trend is not my friend...

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23 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Ever colder uppers being drawn east from the continent:

image.thumb.gif.3427511232324b3f5427ee57327d6aa5.gif

 

Correction (unable to edit) - should of course have read: "....being drawn west from the continent".   :fool:

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Well well well... getting blasted by cold both directions!

Its Fl territory for the more reserved peeps on the forum but and this is a big but the trend is their for an easterly. At this stage of SSW in 2013 it was projecting this far in advance with a huge amount of confidence.

It will do so again. 

Enjoy ( I will enjoy a cold crisp sunny early spring (and dry). 

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Everything seems to be ticking along nicely to the wintery set up caused ny the SSW. I'm with Chiono on this in that I'd rather see quite good charts slowly up grading to stellar output nearer the time. Seen to many snowy nirvana charts at 300+ melt away or downgrade to one day with a few flurries. Far better to gradually build the Scandie or Greenie or Icewegian high and then see stalling fronts come into play nearer the time.

 

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Friday morning could be interesting. The ECM shows a fairly heavy and large area of precipitation crossing parts of Wales and the Midlands and down towards the SE in the early hours. -6 to -8 uppers at that time.

Hirlam model shows something similar.

4C430F5A-C131-4CBA-9489-29C7F92BA1B2.jpegparys 

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Edited by MattStoke
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Maybe above 600 feet could be some interest Matt 

Ex raw shows 2mm precip (sleet) at 350 feet for me 

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Charts like this should cheer a few people up.

West looking good for this evening into tomorrow and then another event on Sunday for the white stuff.

For the 21st of the month the south to the midlands could get in on the action.

All positive outlook and hopefully the months of model watching for the easterly pay off.

prectypeuktopo (1).png

prectypeuktopo (3).png

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe above 600 feet could be some interest Matt 

Ex raw shows 2mm precip (sleet) at 350 feet for me 

I'd have thought with those uppers, occuring in the early part of the day and the precipitation looking quite heavy, snow could fall widely to low levels?

I'm at 146 m. About 480 feet.

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17 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Unsurprising to see the ECM now showing some interesting charts because the date of change has always been around the 19th Feb..I also continue to back the idea of a Greenland High influencing our weather at first rather than a Scandi HP (like GFS) and todays +240 ECM is heading that way.

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

One thing I will mention after BFTP commented on the UKMO +144. I cannot see the potential N blocking, cold spell being brought forward in the NWP. This is simply a case of being patient and waiting for the SSW to have its impact on the PV. The date for when a real blast from the N or E or NE will arrive has always been from around the 18th - 20th Feb onwards and in my opinion continues to be the case.

Hi Dave

I particularly mentioned the UKMO as it brings the trough in for midmonth on the angle I have spoken about and several days for it to hopefully pass and undercut. I don’t anticipate a speed up either but I think it won’t be straight forward and clean either

 

BFTP

 

BFTP

 

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