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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Latest fax pushes this weekends front well out west with a very cold easterly flow into England and Wales by Sunday. The front pivots around Liverpool Bay and Welsh border country before its retreat to Ireland. Probably light rain turning to snow to lower levels as the colder flow cuts in. Maybe Wales and Northwest England could see a  covering from this especially at elevation.

C

fax72s.gif

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9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest fax pushes this weekends front well out west with a very cold easterly flow into England and Wales by Sunday. The front pivots around Liverpool Bay and Welsh border country before its retreat to Ireland. Probably light rain turning to snow to lower levels as the colder flow cuts in. Maybe Wales and Northwest England could see a  covering from this especially at elevation.

C

fax72s.gif

Yes I am thinking the fronts will be obliterated....unfortunately/fortunately 

tempresult_ukc8.gif

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58 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Bye bye Gulf Stream

When I last looked the Gulf Stream was an ocean current - not sure how you are seeing it in that chart - unless the weather expected to give you a downturn in fortune, leading to goodbye personal jet - in which case, commiserations!

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Great output again tonight from the gfs and ukmo -10 sub minimum across large areas of the uk. But there is a but coming here to if we look at the gfs 114 chart the Atlantic doesn’t even get past Ireland. Now if I was a betting man I would say ice days with a few wintry flurries near the east facing coasts. Think the air will be that dry and cold we will see some harsh frosts. But I’m certainly not seeing widespread snowfall for large swathes of the uk just yet. :cold:

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UKMO is stunning bitterly cold across the SE in particular and EA the T+72 FAX chart with the all important human input is mouth watering. Dare I say maybe Thames streamer territory. 

442DB536-083E-43B0-A59F-B6F33175CC3E.thumb.gif.7633470ffc33fdf87fd26e4b89035087.gif

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6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Great output again tonight from the gfs and ukmo -10 sub minimum across large areas of the uk. But there is a but coming here to if we look at the gfs 114 chart the Atlantic doesn’t even get past Ireland. Now if I was a betting man I would say ice days with a few wintry flurries near the east facing coasts. Think the air will be that dry and cold we will see some harsh frosts. But I’m certainly not seeing widespread snowfall for large swathes of the uk just yet. :cold:

I was wondering this too. Models look very cold with severe frosts and cold but dont show much precipitation. 

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is stunning bitterly cold across the SE in particular and EA the T+72 FAX chart with the all important human input is mouth watering. Dare I say maybe Thames streamer territory. 

442DB536-083E-43B0-A59F-B6F33175CC3E.thumb.gif.7633470ffc33fdf87fd26e4b89035087.gif

With the trough there looks more like a channel streamer to be fair, however may be it travelled over us on the way Southwest.

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Just now, alexisj9 said:

With the trough there looks more like a channel streamer to be fair, however may be it travelled over us on the way Southwest.

It’s not that. The trough progressed S it looks like it originated from the north. East of IOW generally possible snow band sweeping its way southwards. 

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2 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Models look very cold with severe frosts and cold but dont show much precipitation. 

The Gfs 12z does next tues and fri especially..plus, I've read that there is potential for significant snow through early next week, mon night and tuesday..fingers crossed!:):cold-emoji:

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So the most major doubter of the reload idea - UKMO - has backed down big-time. Great to see.

Agree with points regarding potential dryness. Possibly best chance is any lingering activity on the boundary moving across as the Azores extends NE and either the easterly reloads again or things go very slack.

If the latter occurs with clear skies and even a slight covering snow on the ground... need I say more?

;)

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Strange seeing comments about next week looking dry when actually the models show plenty of wintry potential. Experience may tell you that fronts tend to back westward nearer the time, which could leave some areas high and dry but to actually say it is looking dry on that basis when the models aren't showing that all seems incorrect.

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Strange seeing comments about next week looking dry when actually the models show plenty of wintry potential. Experience may tell you that fronts tend to back westward nearer the time, which could leave some areas high and dry but to actually say it is looking dry on that basis when the models aren't showing that all seems incorrect.

I think it's a fair assessment. Here's the cumulative precip on the EC up until Friday next week. Sure you get your usual coastal showers in the east, and fronts edging into western fringes. But for the majority of the central and southern parts of the UK, there ain't much precip to talk about...

5a73569039730_Maps01-02-201818.thumb.png.9fc3a7a5ff3c6b22388365ebaeb904da.png

I do think this is underdoing it a tad from any snow showers that do drift in from the east, but my point still stands.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at PTB 8! The altlantic at 114 doesn’t even get to Ireland !

CCE619F8-052C-4146-9774-ADF598D7656A.thumb.png.c40e0a0b6e9fca6a4ab19a21b18b8d84.png

With the current trending this is where I reckon we will end up.  Everything shunted slightly further west, High pressure more defined and more northerly placed with a proper easterly wind.

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2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think it's a fair assessment. Here's the cumulative precip on the EC up until Friday next week. Sure you get your usual coastal showers in the east, and fronts edging into western fringes. But for the majority of the central and southern parts of the UK, there ain't much precip to talk about...

5a73569039730_Maps01-02-201818.thumb.png.9fc3a7a5ff3c6b22388365ebaeb904da.png

I do think this is underdoing it a tad from any snow showers that do drift in from the east, but my point still stands.

Surely that depends on how much of that precipitation falls as snow though? And things do crop up unexpectedly, so I wouldn't get too hung up on precipitation amounts when the cold spell has not arrived (if it even will).

Edited by cheese
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Just now, cheese said:

Surely that depends on how much of that precipitation falls as snow though? 

You've lost me there, cheese?

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

You've lost me there, cheese?

Yes, if no PPN falls at all, how can it fall as snow?:D

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4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Surely that depends on how much of that precipitation falls as snow though? And things do crop up unexpectedly, so I wouldn't get too hung up on precipitation amounts when the cold spell has not arrived (if it even will).

Not denying that things won't crop up unexpectedly. But the point I was responding to was someone disputing that the models aren't showing it dry, they are for the majority. Of course, disturbances may well pop up, but at the moment the output is showing it mostly dry.

I just want to try and keep things level headed in here. It's looking bloody cold yes, but it's certainly not looking like as severe a snowy spell as some are hoping/expecting...yet!

Edited by Nick L
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Troughs will pop up from nowhere in any unstable air mass. Far too soon to start looking for any detail regarding snow, surely!!

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Well.. further upgrades from the ECM too with a push for Scandi Heights far more evident. Eastwards comes the cold air

ECM.thumb.gif.7a397176c98275de92fd1b51a55b6092.gifEast.thumb.gif.563ffddc454ac39a6321aac1e220082c.gif

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Well I can't agree. The majority of models don't look largely dry for the majority of the UK to me. Only the ECM, which is the least progressive with the Atlantic fronts pushing in.

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Well I can't agree. The majority of models don't look largely dry for the majority of the UK to me. Only the ECM, which is the least progressive with the Atlantic fronts pushing in.

Most of the cumulative precip on GFS in the areas I've mentioned is from Saturday's front which will be rain for the majority. It gives it a lot more oomph than the EC.

Edited by Nick L

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