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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?

 

M4 snow barrier strikes again :rofl:

Have you got a map handy?

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

My question here is: how far east will the snowfall get before it peters out?

Netweather GFS Image

Where does it stall? According to the GFS, quite literally 1 mile west of my house.:D

138-574UK.GIF?01-12

Seriously though, wherever it ends up the front just sits there for hours on end. Quite disruptive, you'd imagine.

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Not sure how good this would be for North East England. These sort of synoptics are perfect for South East and Southern England really 

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13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?

 

M4 snow barrier strikes again :rofl:

Looking at chart don’t you mean the M23?

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1 minute ago, ZK099 said:

Not sure how good this would be for North East England. These sort of synoptics are perfect for South East and Southern England really 

They are also perfect for the North West of England. Frontal snow and stalling against the block. 

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It's great to see a mild sector have the life squeezed out of it from both sides! :cold:

168-7UK.thumb.GIF.17647e4d1ecd5a61da3418cf21d591a4.GIF174-7UK.thumb.GIF.8e85fa4d5e778fc3a0803a6cdd48bd18.GIF180-7UK.thumb.GIF.fcdc8d38b76ce1b8853a4790c1c61701.GIF

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4 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

Not sure how good this would be for North East England. These sort of synoptics are perfect for South East and Southern England really 

Looking at the ppn charts , It never reaches the S.E so where are u getting your prediction from ?

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1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

It's great to see a mild sector have the life squeezed out of it from both sides! :cold:

168-7UK.thumb.GIF.17647e4d1ecd5a61da3418cf21d591a4.GIF174-7UK.thumb.GIF.8e85fa4d5e778fc3a0803a6cdd48bd18.GIF180-7UK.thumb.GIF.fcdc8d38b76ce1b8853a4790c1c61701.GIF

Yes, mild sector after mild sector destroyed. Not something you see often!

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Uk looking cold but south east England look at that cold blob very cold...:cold:

IMG_0489.GIF

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1 minute ago, craigore said:

Looking at the ppn charts , It never reaches the S.E so where are u getting your prediction from ?

Don't look at the PPN charts despite what I posted on the early pages. That was just a whizz. Get the stonking xold in first and then we will get the snow definitely in this set up.

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18 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Where does it stall? According to the GFS, quite literally 1 mile west of my house.:D

138-574UK.GIF?01-12

Seriously though, wherever it ends up the front just sits there for hours on end. Quite disruptive, you'd imagine.

It always gets pushed back in future  runs!

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10 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Yes, mild sector after mild sector destroyed. Not something you see often!

No we are used to a fleeting glance from the East of very cold dense air.Even then it is very difficult to displace as we saw a week or two back. The predicted very cold air never retreats and it will be a VERY lengthy battle at this time of year.

Synoptics are far better this time around.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think the band coming in from the NW Tues - the cut off line will be the M1 if your lucky.... 

For once the SW could be in the firing line.....

What about convection off the North Sea Steve?

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Just now, john mac said:

What about convection off the North Sea Steve?

Yeah - gentle being the word ! But slow moving .....SE / EA / NE !

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Amazing that everyone is talking about snow at day 5? Like its nailed? A lot can change in that time period. 

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Look at PTB 8! The altlantic at 114 doesn’t even get to Ireland !

CCE619F8-052C-4146-9774-ADF598D7656A.thumb.png.c40e0a0b6e9fca6a4ab19a21b18b8d84.png

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at PTB 8! The altlantic at 114 doesn’t even get to Ireland !

CCE619F8-052C-4146-9774-ADF598D7656A.thumb.png.c40e0a0b6e9fca6a4ab19a21b18b8d84.png

Actually with the movement in the models over the last 24 hours, I would not be surprised if this is where we end up.

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UKMO Cold air to our East says hello little forming cell of high pressure...I am going to eat you 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

I am going to swallow and feed off you and throw you over my head as you cannot stop me...

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

And then I am coming after the UK 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Brilliant move that.

 

Edited by winterof79
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