Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Derecho]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Mm well our December 2012 easterly let down of the century solar activity ramped up. Unsure whether that was the causation but I have been weary of that big ball of fire ever since. 

Yup December 2012 still hurts . Looked like a right plonker when I told everyone severe cold is heading our way....
But I wouldn't worry at this point. There are numerous other factors which can swing us back to cold and we have plenty of severe cold winters during solar maximums in the CET series. There are some straws to clutch if things start looking a bit shaky 

[ptow]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Doh, cheers for that.

updated: so 2-4C widely 

Which  is not very cold, bitterly cold, amazingly cold, epic cold or any other superlative to add to the word cold. In fact it barely registers as cold for Feb

[Daniel*]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup December 2012 still hurts . Looked like a right plonker when I told everyone severe cold is heading our way....
But I wouldn't worry at this point. There are numerous other factors which can swing us back to cold and we have plenty of severe cold winters during solar maximums in the CET series. There are some straws to clutch if things start looking a bit shaky 

I don’t have a scoobydoo but this sudden spike isn’t a good thing. I know the aurora people are happy.  

Sunspot region 2699 erupted with a long duration C1.5 solar flare this night.

A coronal mass ejection was released and could impact our planet this Thursday, 15 February.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Mm well our December 2012 easterly let down of the century solar activity ramped up. Unsure where that was the causation but I have been weary of that big ball of fire ever since. 

that is a bit like comparing apples and oranges though surely? we weren't in or near a solar minimum then were we?

Edited February 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[JoeShmoe]

2 minutes ago, ptow said:

Which  is not very cold, bitterly cold, amazingly cold, epic cold or any other superlative to add to the word cold. In fact it barely registers as cold for Feb

its been colder than that this week

[karyo]

25 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Solar activity in the last week has spiked this isn’t good as far as I know what could be implications? Are signals too ‘strong’ or could there be a deconstructive element to prolonged cold as a result of this.

It is one sunspot and the solar flux is around 78. Hardly anything ground breaking. If there were a handful of spots I would be concerned.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, ptow said:

Which  is not very cold, bitterly cold, amazingly cold, epic cold or any other superlative to add to the word cold. In fact it barely registers as cold for Feb

Its also not warm- mild -quite mild- ridiculously mild!!!!...

And these have loads of wiggle room @this range..

As with any easterly- gain then drop(temps)...

Some people will eek-out to the last...won't they!???

You can de-modify those by 2/5 degrees...(downwards)..if current trending continues!!!

[syed2878]

guys a qs come across a tweet  earlier on regarding a solar storm.  would it have any effect on our weather or would the current strat and MJO signal override the efect?

[jonboy]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Mm well our December 2012 easterly let down of the century solar activity ramped up. Unsure whether that was the causation but I have been weary of that big ball of fire ever since. 

Well that big ball of fire has ramped up from zero last week to a heady 26. In December 2012 it was 82 hardly the same level of activity. If such activity played a significant immediate role we would see a lot more input into the models. Solar activity if anything plays more to the broader teleconnections over a longer time span. For me the talk of this record breaking SSW may well be down to the level or not of solar activity but research will determine the impact. For now I would suggest this increase will not impact on whether an easterly occurs or how intense it is.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is one sunspot and the solar flux is around 78. Hardly anything ground breaking. If there were a handful of spots I would be concerned.

It’s no one sunspot perse that 2699 region there are 16.

[ptow]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its also not warm- mild -quite mild- ridiculously mild!!!!...

And these have loads of wiggle room @this range..

As with any easterly- gain then drop(temps)...

Some people will eek-out to the last...won't they!???

You can de-modify those by 2/5 degrees...(downwards)..if current trending continues!!!

Agreed, but we are discussing the actual output at the moment, which is showing just plain old bulk standard cold, albeit good synoptics. Nothing exceptional. I just think some not so knowledgeable members will get the wrong end of the stick. Some comparing to 1991, this (at the moment on present evidence) isn't even fit to lace the boots of 1991

[A.J]

blimey, thought I'd dropped into the wrong thread!.....Nope, it does say 'model discussion'....could've fooled me .....lol

talking of which, I noticed a few days ago that the GFS was interested in initially ridging the AH towards the UK and then displacing it over the UK allowing the possibilities of low heights over Iberia encouraging a muh colder easterly feed over the UK and this was before the SSW was imminent....despite some flip flopping (especially from the o6/18z runs and the ECM) it's really encouraging this displacement of the AH coming into the reliable now (T84 onwards)....Yes, there are always possibilities that things go wrong in the short term modelling, but this time, I'm genuinely thinking that we might just have got in our possession the golden ticket in the cold lottery 

[Paul]

In just about an entire page worth of posts, literally one or two have actually been about the models. I get that this thread is popular, and so it's a brilliant place to have your posts seen, but I assume the majority of people can understand what a mess it would become if it was just left as a free for all. 

So, any chance of those who keep posting whatever they fancy showing a bit of consideration for the wider community please. Alternatively, we can keep adding to the list of people who have been stopped from posting or had their posts pre-moderated in this thread this winter...

And on that note, am locking this now, new thread here:

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Paul