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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can't see how the weekend/early next week will be milder with high pressure centre over the UK.

Now 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Mon/Tues

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

But cold incoming from the East

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Getting quite certain now that we will see a notable late winter ice blast. 

As an outside worker, I'm dreading it, but getting excited at the same time. Some of these outputs are comparable and almost a carbon copy of Feb 91! 

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I think temperatures starting average next week and then trending colder through the week with increasing frosts is a good call..thereafter, becoming very cold from the east with a risk of snow..sounds excellent to me, it's certainly what the Ecm / Gefs mean is showing...game on!:D:cold-emoji:

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1 hour ago, georgiedre said:

I for one am hoping that the models show a few low pressures coming in to the SW as an easterly is very dry here on w Wales coast. I'm thinking the high might be further NW than first thought. (Hoping and wishing) ,😂😉

Don't worry - our time will come...  The models are only showing easterly solutions into far FI at the moment but once the Atlantic gets its act together again (probably late March!) then we will see fronts banging into the (by that time) bitterly cold air anchored over the UK, and Wales and the West Country will be in the firing line for some fun and games!

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3 hours ago, Catacol said:

It’s an interesting one this - maybe @SnowBallz could add some flesh? True to say that GFS was solid for at least 5 runs in a row (I stopped counting at 5) when next week was at 320h plus range. High pressure to the north with low pressure to the south. It then dropped the idea in the mid range, as did ECM for a time, before picking it back up again as the ssw occurred.

Not the first time that extended modelling has picked up something, dropped, and then come back with it. Maybe it feels more common than is actually the case.... don’t know cos I don’t keep records about this... but it feels as though it is not that uncommon.

Is there something in the model algorithms that puts greater emphasis on different factors when looking at extended range than when the clock moves into medium range? Do they function in exactly the same way at all time scales? We know resolution improves at 72h (at least that usd to be the high resolution point - is it further out now?) but is there anything we can learn about medium v extended?

We are approaching crunch time now - the general pattern looked great a good few days ago now... but now we need a bit of luck to kick in. From around tomorrow we may be able to see whether we are set for dry and cold, or snowy and cold - this relationship likely to wax and wane throughout the cold spell according to orientation and block movement... but I think we will be unlucky if at least once in the spell we don’t get alignment of the block and frontal system development to bring a snow event of substance. Having said that - scars from March 2013 are still raw as nothing arrived here from that setup... so there is no guarantee of anything when it comes to weather watching.

 

 

This is a perception that i also have, and as such would be interested if there is some evidence of this?  To clarify - i'm referring to instances when the GFS/ECM long range outputs show winter Easterly sourced regimes for the UK:- I.e one or both paint various patterns 8-10 days out (+10 for GFS) but these include many solutions that are suggestive of an easterly pattern, then during the 5-7 day period at least one of the ECM/GFS will drop these easterly solutions entirely in favour of a standard westerly/zonal pattern.  Around day 5 they then both start producing consistent Easterly solutions and it's day 1-4 is where we wait to see if they are inevitably moved South/East = snow ends up in Iberia or Greece. 

It's possible/probable that my view on this is clouded somewhat by what happened a couple of times in the dim and distant past (2000's) when i initially started observing model output?

NB Just to re-clarify in order to avoid confusion, i'm referring only to Easterly regimes hinted at day 9+ that are unrelated to an ongoing SSW.  Not northerlies, Greenland highs or established cold air in the UK/Scand region refusing to submit to an Atlantic onslaught predicted by the models (imo this last bias is genuine).  

Edited by swebby

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3 hours ago, Gustywind said:

Yes it was better up north, think the North York moors got a fair bit also. Think the SE corner had a snow event at the end of the spell also when some very cold uppers got into the mix.

I do remember though a lot of moaning from southerners, particularly in the East about showers falling as rain or sleet that week! 

You must be getting confused.

That would just never happen.

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3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Wait till it gets to T72 before discussing, I made that mistake with the December 2012 failed easterly....:rofl:

A very anticyclonic run from the GFS so far, to get some really good cold nearby we need to shift the NW Greenland polar vortex or move the high towards Svalbard, it may take a while if it does happen.

So did I, bloody shortwave 😡

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53 minutes ago, Bobby93 said:

BBC lunchtime forecast said becoming milder over the weekend and into next week, surely that is just wrong? 

The BBC Weather forecasts just aren't so good/bullish as they used to be a few years ago.

Personally take more notice of ITV now anyhow as they are now with the MET. BBC weather and especially their graphics have gone pants since they started using the meteogroup for their forecasts. Still use some met office data but it looks like its mostly from the BOM! 

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Let’s see what the 12z run brings and whether we can speed up the retrogression of the block forming over us at the weekend to bring in cold NE’ winds sooner ❄️❄️

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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33 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Don't worry - our time will come...  The models are only showing easterly solutions into far FI at the moment but once the Atlantic gets its act together again (probably late March!) then we will see fronts banging into the (by that time) bitterly cold air anchored over the UK, and Wales and the West Country will be in the firing line for some fun and games!

This is so very wrong! 

ECM and GFS mean very strong support for easterlies to commence by next week later in the week. 

E5C0972F-6D16-4ADE-8A5F-370E0B050E14.thumb.png.a235afd38a4f0431e480cf82c9cbe8ee.png05130822-C23D-46A5-A559-86F6565098ED.thumb.gif.2c5d80fbba54fdde932290ff9f3b4e34.gif

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9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

This is so very wrong! 

ECM and GFS mean very strong support for easterlies to commence by next week later in the week. 

E5C0972F-6D16-4ADE-8A5F-370E0B050E14.thumb.png.a235afd38a4f0431e480cf82c9cbe8ee.png05130822-C23D-46A5-A559-86F6565098ED.thumb.gif.2c5d80fbba54fdde932290ff9f3b4e34.gif

Agree daniel.

With an, easterly component the west..and parts of the north are shield'ed for such as elevation(north) breaking the colder inflow(somewhat)

And the west via geographical miles.

Eastern and indeed southern parts bear the brunt of the cold in such set ups.

And covection rates/-precip- also come into the equastion....thats just the mechanics-of dynamics!!!

Edit:..and we have current data suggesting- the colder conversion, a little earlier than some are suggesting!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

This is so very wrong! 

ECM and GFS mean very strong support for easterlies to commence by next week later in the week. 

E5C0972F-6D16-4ADE-8A5F-370E0B050E14.thumb.png.a235afd38a4f0431e480cf82c9cbe8ee.png05130822-C23D-46A5-A559-86F6565098ED.thumb.gif.2c5d80fbba54fdde932290ff9f3b4e34.gif

To be fair, he does say late March. Think we all be happy enough for that to occur if the current FI comes to fruition.

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Great model output from the 0z's and then the GFS 6z with amazing GEFS's. Looking forward to the 12z's eagerly now.

I just hope that come mid March we don't have a new member called:

ThatECM-thatGFS-thatUKMO-thatGEM-thatGEFS-thatICON-thatGLOSEA5-thatMORGREPS-thatTELECONNECTIONS

Edited by Decemberof2010
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1 hour ago, Bobby93 said:

BBC lunchtime forecast said becoming milder over the weekend and into next week, surely that is just wrong? 

The BBC Weather forecasts just aren't so good/bullish as they used to be a few years ago.

right at the end.. chris fawkes mentioned after the mild weekend/mon/tues models were increasing likelihood of much colder weather from the east.

 

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Solar activity in the last week has spiked this isn’t good as far as I know what could be implications? Are signals too ‘strong’ or could there be a deconstructive element to prolonged cold as a result of this.

39BE0027-8104-49D6-A45C-2A50CD8FE22C.thumb.jpeg.aa5b0a68e1e31fda8a9322dd17accdad.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*
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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Solar activity in the last week has spiked this isn’t good as far as I know what could be implications? Are signals too ‘strong’ or could there be a deconstructive element as a result of this.

39BE0027-8104-49D6-A45C-2A50CD8FE22C.thumb.jpeg.aa5b0a68e1e31fda8a9322dd17accdad.jpeg

Now wouldn't that just be our luck! 

looking here though it doesn't seem anything to significant. fingers crossed and a bit out of my knowledge base tbh.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-flares

Edited by karlos1983

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

exactly! 2-4c presuming the sun is out as well I would imagine. I wouldn't suggest anyone ventures out in shorts and T-shirts or you'll have people putting there coats on and placing there hangers or your nipples! If it were to play out as per the 00z it will be anything but Mild! 

ECM1-216.GIF?13-12ECM1-240.GIF?13-12:cold:

I think it should be made obligatory that anybody who keeps harping on about how 'lovely and warm' it will be in the 'strengthening sunshine', should be made to go outside in a short sleeved t-shirt, beach shorts and flip flops when (if) this occurs.

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12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Solar activity in the last week has spiked this isn’t good as far as I know what could be implications? Are signals too ‘strong’ or could there be a deconstructive element to prolonged cold as a result of this.

39BE0027-8104-49D6-A45C-2A50CD8FE22C.thumb.jpeg.aa5b0a68e1e31fda8a9322dd17accdad.jpeg

It'll be fine, we have had many severe cold spells during solar maximums :), 1968/69 was one of the most blocked winters out there and I'm pretty sure that occurred during a solar maximum, sunspot activity was also higher in March 2013 I believe.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It'll be fine, we have had many severe cold spells during solar maximums :)

Some of us bear the mental scars of the last ‘cross model agreed on falied easterly’ at just T96 which was apparently related to solar 

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8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It'll be fine, we have had many severe cold spells during solar maximums :), 1968/69 was one of the most blocked winters out there and I'm pretty sure that occurred during a solar maximum, sunspot activity was also higher in March 2013 I believe.

Mm well our December 2012 easterly let down of the century solar activity ramped up. Unsure whether that was the causation but I have been weary of that big ball of fire ever since. 

Edited by Daniel*

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Just now, Daniel* said:

Mm well our December 2012 easterly let down of the century solar activity ramped up. Unsure whether that was the causation but I have been weary of that big ball of fire ever since. 

Yup December 2012 still hurts :rofl:. Looked like a right plonker when I told everyone severe cold is heading our way....
But I wouldn't worry at this point. There are numerous other factors which can swing us back to cold and we have plenty of severe cold winters during solar maximums in the CET series. There are some straws to clutch if things start looking a bit shaky :D

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Doh, cheers for that.

updated: so 2-4C widely 

image.thumb.png.9fbddc7a63053e1b168d210e356e9cc9.png

Which  is not very cold, bitterly cold, amazingly cold, epic cold or any other superlative to add to the word cold. In fact it barely registers as cold for Feb

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup December 2012 still hurts :rofl:. Looked like a right plonker when I told everyone severe cold is heading our way....
But I wouldn't worry at this point. There are numerous other factors which can swing us back to cold and we have plenty of severe cold winters during solar maximums in the CET series. There are some straws to clutch if things start looking a bit shaky :D

I don’t have a scoobydoo but this sudden spike isn’t a good thing. I know the aurora people are happy.  :diablo:

Sunspot region 2699 erupted with a long duration C1.5 solar flare this night.

A coronal mass ejection was released and could impact our planet this Thursday, 15 February.

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Mm well our December 2012 easterly let down of the century solar activity ramped up. Unsure where that was the causation but I have been weary of that big ball of fire ever since. 

that is a bit like comparing apples and oranges though surely? we weren't in or near a solar minimum then were we?

image.thumb.png.35d363e1a469c4f3111801ac7c161a03.png

Edited by karlos1983
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