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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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Hugely improved Ecm 12z compared to yesterday, no sign of mild atlantic filth and instead we have a nice stepping stone to something colder and increasingly blocked which is looking very much like the trend next week for high pressure to become dominant and gradually drift into a favourable position to draw in much colder air from the east...so, becoming anticyclonic with frosty nights and bright / sunny chilly days would be a very good start!.:)

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My favourite chart of the evening from one of the gefs! Beyond epic propertions! If some of the gefs runs are correct possibly some of the coldest and snowiest periods on record. Id expect extreme blocked scenarios with the record ssw. I think its possible for the rest of the winter to be on par with the snow/cold from 16th/17th century. Surely it cpuld happen with record ssw event! 

GFSP10EU12_384_1.png

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well that was a bit like putting the kids to bed, got there in the end kicking and screaming and it’s left me a bit pee’d off, but now I can relax atleast.

0B8FC2A9-589C-404B-998F-F63D8A1DE040.thumb.png.5ba2d236836257325f2487697e9dea44.png

GFS morning run(s) looked just like that I’m sure.  Maybe GFS knows what’s up. :D 

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5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS morning run(s) looked just like that I’m sure.  Maybe GFS knows what’s up. :D 

That's exactly what I though like the 6z or the 00z GFS this morning. Maybe ECM is playing catch up . Don't think BA will like me for saying that , he loves the ECM 😂 . 

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12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

3 in a row now. 1030mb mean. Closing in and sustaining. This is a strong & consistent signal.

prmslReyjavic.thumb.png.e632cd2e7395985eaad03d5cb92efe9a.png

In fact, take out the op and the other 2 'rogue' runs and that mean would be even higher at the end

There are some members which build really considerable high pressure around Griceland. Having a closer look best GFS ens of winter.

2561ACDF-8176-48CB-B4D7-382148C7FEF9.thumb.png.416b532a6090c433dfad7704fcaa643c.png3A177D00-3CA8-44B5-BBEF-EEDE79DEF0AC.thumb.png.a81f0cfa935b58cbf26f8210594073c9.png5E9BD252-6B86-4AFC-86E4-D398F4C693E7.thumb.png.75c09a768c478a3ed190759a3f1feba8.png2FFDAEE3-4C51-4E12-85C1-93A6388415B5.thumb.png.0fef0aba3f30596b61a06d637da8a590.pngF07FD282-12F2-4895-BF30-B664139885F4.thumb.png.3c2ffb88a793771c52c044412995d3de.png

Even before day 10 majority 90% have cold easterlies, something is brewing and it looks unsavoury for mildies.

F4079628-7EBA-4162-BA23-9A5FD1B35655.thumb.png.fee1c89ca414f958141217c33a84bca9.png

Edited by Daniel*
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On 11/02/2018 at 09:54, blizzard81 said:

I have often found the weekend runs to suddenly go out of kilter, especially with regards to cold spells which look more than likely. However, by the time we get to the Monday 12z runs, they flip back to cold or what they were originally showing on the previous Friday. Is there less data available to the models over the weekends? 

Well, it seems to have happened again lol.

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What a great day of chart outputs. Polar (excuse the pun) opposite to yesterday. Let's hope it is here to stay this time!

No need for any upgrades on the GFS 12z, I'm not greedy, that will do me very nicely. Bank.

One thing I will say, as I've seen a few still bemoaning the vortex proximity. Be careful what you wish for, these charts are showing exactly how it is still possible to get holy grail synoptics with the vortex in fairly close proximity. Once it starts moving away properly (not for a quite a while yet), the dreaded west based -NAO will start to creep into the modelling I'm sure.

Worse problems to have if the GFS came to fruition!

 

 

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The ecm woke up this morning with a very sore head after it's weekend bender. It downed a gallon of coffee through the day and then suddenly realised what the smell was! 

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Different timeframes but EPIC stuff from the GEFS 12z this evening...if you're a coldie!:D:cold-emoji::shok: ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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18 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

i know what the bbc are saying but could the fabbled ssw be starting as early as 84  hr!

gfs-2-78.png

It's already happened. Current conditions 

SSW.thumb.png.ba668953861ad6ae5a9341f953af13ed.png

The SSW has taken place, the vortex is split and zonal winds have reversed. There is however a second warming being forecasted

5a81ecbd415f5_SecondSSW.thumb.png.708bd03731c7009a51c59e310b77044a.png

Second SSW.png

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1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I must be missing something. The ECM 12z looks milder to me. Most of the country in double digit temps this weekend. How is that an improvement?

Look towards the end it picks up an SE'ly flow that will feel quite cold given the temps over the channel

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I would of thought that as the models get to grips with the SSW the blocking will be stronger with more latitude. Peak blocking I think could be anywhere from late Feb till second week of March. Just my opinion of course. The gfs ens look great but I think there is much better to come with some really mouth watering charts.

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8 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I must be missing something. The ECM 12z looks milder to me. Most of the country in double digit temps this weekend. How is that an improvement?

There would be frosty nights next week under that big juicy Ecm 12z high which would turn the days colder as a result..and then even colder once we tap into the continental flow..:)

Edited by Frosty.
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The quickest route to colder conditions and a set up with snow showers is through the trigger shortwave which both the ECM and GFS have at T168hrs:

You preferably want this tracking towards the Low Countries. The shortwave is your cold marker so that brings in the deeper cold.

ECM

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.a63c073d952c87bc1028f613085d24a1.gif

 

GFS

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.aae9c2c840ab253acee3cd30859940bc.png

 

Getting the favourable jet cut back sw is always the difficult thing with easterly evolutions. Perhaps the ECM ensemble spreads might have some solutions that deliver that.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's already happened. Current conditions 

SSW.thumb.png.ba668953861ad6ae5a9341f953af13ed.png

The SSW has taken place, the vortex is split and zonal winds have reversed. There is however a second warming being forecasted

5a81ecbd415f5_SecondSSW.thumb.png.708bd03731c7009a51c59e310b77044a.png

Second SSW.png

 

Does a second warming increase our chances of cold?

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Does a second warming increase our chances of cold?

 

 

Yes in terms of keeping the cold.

Think of it as a boxing match. The SSW has weakened the PV and put it on the canvas but it might get up again before the count.

The second warming might finish it off completely. We hope!

PS interesting ECM ensemble spreads. :)

Edited by nick sussex
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Amazing how much the output has improved today, almost like they have new data.

The entire GFS suite has pretty much flipped to blocked. last week of Feb.

Not only that but the signal is very clear. Atlantic Ridge building NE, sharpening of the trough on Eastern flank. Azores high displaced West in classic retrograde pattern.

We just need ECM to sharpen up the pattern and bring it a little further West to bring in the cold quicker, though it would retrogress the high post day 10, but UKMO seems to pretty much on board.

Tonight's ECM ensembles will be interesting that's for sure.

If we get a firming up of this through tomorrow and model consensus (IF) we may finally be seeing the route to cold and vindication for the strat boys and  girls.

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The Gem 12z is reading the background signals rather well I think!:shok::cold:

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

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EDM1-144.GIF?12-0   EDM1-192.GIF?12-0   EDM1-240.GIF?12-0

Slowly getting there, we have a mean continental flow across the UK now by day ten. The GEM ensembles also point towards the winds swinging easterly during week 2.

gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

So a good broad agreement on the direction of travel towards a blocked set up with drier conditions prevailing. The depth of cold and snow risk will be near impossible to pin point at this juncture but to be honest the model output is putting us in with a good chance during the latter stages of the month. The GEM ens do suggest that the ridge could edge westwards in time as well.

 

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28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes in terms of keeping the cold.

Think of it as a boxing match. The SSW has weakened the PV and put it on the canvas but it might get up again before the count.

The second warming might finish it off completely. We hope!

PS interesting ECM ensemble spreads. :)

Cheers I get it, that is exactly the sort of layman's explanation I need :) . 

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A very pleasing Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, especially by T+240!:D:cold:

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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