Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

GFS is back with the garden path showing Easterlies again by t216! ?

[Ice Day]

So at 222 we've moved from this on the 6z

To this on the 12z

Big improvements, but has the GFS over-corrected or are there more upgrades to come? Again, the ensembles are going to be key for us seeing the likely direction of travel. 

[Frosty.]

The upgrades in the earlier timeframes have started quicker than I expected on the Gfs 12z..not that I'm complaining of course..bring it on!

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GFS is back with the garden path showing Easterlies again by t216! ?

Mm viewing ens of late it’s hardly a surprise. 

Edited February 12, 2018 by Daniel*

[Winter Hill]

The Pv over North East Canada is resentless.. just wish it would take a hike and move on.. 

[TomDav]

NAO going through the floor I would imagine

[frosty ground]

Heavy snow moving West...... 

It would be something special if that verifies. 

But its all over 

Edited February 12, 2018 by frosty ground

[Man With Beard]

I think a lot of us have been waiting eagerly for the UKMO to get into range, and it looks as promising for cold as the very best runs we've seen so far:

That ridge looks like it is going further north by T168, and quite possibly an NEly in its wake.

We often on here talk about patterns being "delayed" - I wonder if in this instance we will see the pattern brought forward in time, as surely the major player in the pattern is a promoter of cold (i.e. SSW) and not the hindrance to cold (i.e. Atlantic jet).

[karlos1983]

Can we just agree that the first person to say it’s a dry easterly gets a life ban?

opportunities endless, stunning 

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by karlos1983

[Ice Day]

I think this could be a dry easterly 

At 276 and wowzer

 

This certainly wouldn't be dry!!!

Edited February 12, 2018 by Ice Day

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Now that’s what I’m taking about ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄️?

[ICE COLD]

Bloody hell burty ?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

 

Some cold pool over greenland

[Met4Cast]

I suspect those of us who have been expecting the models to re-pick up the cold/Northern Blocking are looking at the 12z and smiling to themselves, I know I am.

The GFS is a rather smooth transition to blocked and I think is probably going to be the most likely outcome. High Pressure building North-Eastwards over the UK and then we see undercutting from the East underneath the high, forcing it Northwards into a more favourable position.

ENS/EPS picked this signal up in the last couple of runs, Ops are now smelling the snow too. Expect a cracking ENS set, the SSW has occured and these are one of the first runs to start picking up the full extent of it.

[Bartlett High]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

I think this could be a dry easterly 

Cold and dry wll do me.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Now that’s what I’m taking about ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄️?

Or talking about even..that looks as impressive as Jan 1987!!!..great run this!

[bluearmy]

Remember that gfs op drops res after day 10 so once you get to day 12/13, it’s not worth too much analysis, especially with the reverse flow in place higher up. 

[The PIT]

Deep FI tease once again with spring arriving at the end of it.  ECM will probably come up with something completely different. 

[Chertseystreamer79]

Great run....proper FI but getting there...

 

Ecm better had not been on the booze throughout today...

 

 

For now up the coaster we go.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Heavy snow moving West...... 

It would be something special if that verifies. 

But its all over 

Blizzards for the S and SW.  astonishing run.  But a weird ending....expect more weirdness  

 

BFTP

[Daniel*]

What it looks to me is that the models are now assimilating properly with SSW the reversal has happened - I’d expect cold solutions to increasingly have a foothold. 

[Ice Day]

Fantastic run which puts us in an easterly type flow for over 100 hours.  I suspect this will be right at the coldest end of the mean once the ensembles are out, however I (among with many other posters) expected to see this flip looking at the earlier stamps.  This afternoon's UKMO output along with the Icon just reinforces that the GFS run shouldn't be discounted.  Brilliant stuff, time for the ECM to come to the party.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Ice Day

[Scandinavian High.]

That's a proper easterly flow. but will it disappear on the next run.

[Singularity]

So all it took at 6 days range was an adjustment in the angle of the ridge from the left to right charts:

 

...to turn Tuesday's situation from the left to the right charts:

 

 

...and that change became significant for what followed on the 18th which is precisely when IF stated there was important model divergence.

Now here's GFS (left) v. UKMO (right):

Very similar but UKMO not peeling away a little shortwave to drop down through Norway which GFS uses to add a little extra fire to the Euro trough. 

That could mean a gentler easterly at least in terms of wind speed in the 8-10 day range, but also less likelihood of warm air wrapping around the Euro trough and interfering with things in the 11-14 day range (never mind GFS' move to a west-based negative NAO and super-broad low 'scooping out' the Euro trough which is quite simply daft given the location of the peak stratospheric warming and height rises).

 

Just as a side note - I can't recall seeing such a strong stratospheric high before as what keeps being modelled by GFS in the 11-14 day range. It's practically an anti-vortex! It's the result of not one but two strong warming events taking place on the eastern periphery of theCanadian vortex - truly fascinating!

[ICE COLD]

From this 

To this 

in a few days ?