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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

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6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

From little acorns, interesting.

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The other day we had The A Team smoking Cigars and now we have little acorns......seriously

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I think we can expect more strange charts to come out.  I mentioned in my ramblings that I didn’t think we’d get that quick a response from the SSW which seems might be the case.  And every chance too that we’ll see early Spring before return of winter eg the 00z with the S and SSE flow not imo outlandish, but won’t feel that warm though no doubt.  I have a feeling this is going to be long cold cold Spring or a late late winter whichever way one looks at it.

Let’s see what 06z brings, it seems the ridging in of the AZH and not far enough N/NE seems agreed on thus far.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Interestingly thie latter stages of this mornings ecm look similar to what the Gfs was showing on its quick route to cold runs a few days back. Namely the azores high ridging across the uk towards scandinavia. Could it be that the ECM is simply homing in on a similar ultimate outcome to the cold gfs runs but just at a more sedate pace.  Just a thought.

 

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2 minutes ago, doghouse said:

The other day we had The A Team smoking Cigars and now we have little acorns......seriously

Apologies, should have added more commentary. I was alluding to this run having more opportunity for the heights to move north/north east as the pv profile gave it more chance with less energy coming from the northwest. 

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Improvements again to our north/northeast at 150. Could we be heading in the right direction?! 

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Bit better from the 6z, still worrying is the lack of any QTR and implications on the canadian vortex

 

Hey... at least it looks like it won't be dreadful and wet if a UK high sets up, not the end of the world but the waiting game is painful, and with the SSW in tow it will be hard to trust anything the models churn out.

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GFS 6z brings a fabulous start to half term week with high pressure firmly taking control. Once Thursday is over it seems like we can look forward to some decent weather but until then it's staying quite unsettled unfortunately 

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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Might get the ‘pebble in the stream’ back on this run i.e. a ridge holding its own against the Atlantic flow with the jet splitting west of it.

Probably not at as high latitude as desired on this run but there’s plenty of room for improvements there. 

Incidentially if the MJO RMM analysis is underestimating ongoing propagation, that could mean at least a little too much flattening is going on in the output. Every little helps...

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Bit better from the 6z, still worrying is the lack of any QTR and implications on the 

A QTR is long gone. Instead of days or a week we are now looking two to four weeks ahead. 

Can folk not see that?

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at least there's no 'southwesterly zephyrs' on this run. dry cold and frosty by next weekend, with the high better placed if it decides to take a trip north-

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.43b97ae0ea107d55e7e982bb4cfc6e82.png 

 

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Just now, mountain shadow said:

A QTR is long gone. Instead of days or a week we are now looking two to four weeks ahead. 

Can folk not see that?

There is a qtr but it isn’t likely to be effective, especially for nw europe

note the 06z already firing the aleutian ridge way further into the pole by day 8

the sub tropical ridge holding on in the se states is hindering amplification to our west. I expect some changes becoming apparent post 19/20th as each suite emerges 

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A QTR is long gone. Instead of days or a week we are now looking two to four weeks ahead. 

Can folk not see that?

I think its pretty clear from this mornings output that we are unlikely to see any significant blocking to our N with a corresponding cold spell until at least the 24th Feb.

Just hope the GEFS mean doesn't lead us up the garden path again!

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Just now, mountain shadow said:

A QTR is long gone. Instead of days or a week we are now looking two to four weeks ahead. 

Can folk not see that?

Surely there's no absolute formula to whether there will be any quick response? We aren't seeing a quick response at this moment but as the reversal takes hold I'm sure chaos will ensue in the models, I don't trust anything at this moment... the models are not used to dealing with the current goings on in the strat so anything could happen at any point.

 

Im no expert but given the reversal and warming I simply cannot see the vortex staying as strong as is currently predicted, it just seems against logic.

 

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5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I think its pretty clear from this mornings output that we are unlikely to see any significant blocking to our N with a corresponding cold spell until at least the 24th Feb.

Just hope the GEFS mean doesn't lead us up the garden path again!

That’s what the met think too,need to wait till least thurs before we see exactly where it’s all going to end up lol

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i was of the opinion, when we saw this possible HLB pattern emerging, around a week ago, we were looking at the 20th or just after to see any results 'on the ground'. in the meantime, the models showed us a quicker route to cold which seemed plausible. it appears now, we are just reverting to the original plan. of course, as with any weather evolution, it can go wrong, as small changes can have bigger implications down the line. however, with current ensemble scatter and model uncertainty, i don't see any reason to give up just yet...

Edited by bobbydog
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24 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

GFS 6z brings a fabulous start to half term week with high pressure firmly taking control. Once Thursday is over it seems like we can look forward to some decent weather but until then it's staying quite unsettled unfortunately 

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It breaks up the cold upper air too (for a time at least) so given light winds it should start to feel milder than recently especially in any sunshine 

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Still seeing signs of height rises up through the UK around the 23/24th, which the last few runs have shown.  Some 'proper' cold to our east and north east just waiting to be tapped into.  Just need to find that trigger - ensembles will be interesting to see if any notable trends are now appearing?

288 gfsnh-0-288.png?6 gfsnh-1-288.png?6

 

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I might be wrong but a SSW can actually change the current situation in the atmosphere and strengthen the upper winds in the polar vortex so we get mild SW winds for a  long time. I think that happened winter 2011/12

Still looks pretty mild in both GFS and ECM, anyway it's getting too late for any proper cold and the sun angle is high
 

 

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On ‎05‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 22:25, comet said:

although I am still of the opinion that this could have been a more memorable cold spell had it not been for the much stronger warming and forcing we are seeing in the strat  I think most would be willing to forsake that if we see real winter wonderland arrive at our shores.

I think over the coming days and runs we will see the heights build more robustly north from roughly our local with the large area of low heights held back further west. Strong heights then developing in the high north east Arctic ( Severnaya Islands) linking with heights from eastern Atlantic ushering in very cold (maybe bitterly cold) north easterly winds etc. This may very well take 20-25 days from now as the models struggle to digest the implifications of such strong strat forcing. I would expect that we will be entrenched in a cold pattern several days before the real cold kicks in with a risk of some snow. 

Here's hoping.

I posted this on the 5th of Feb. Despite some peachy runs showing a qtr I still think that the timing ( 25th to 30th ) holds true. How often have we seen the models to quick to jump when a big pattern change is on the way. This again looks to have been one such time. Still plenty of time to get some serious cold and snow over the next two to four weeks.

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Ooh it gets better GFS 6z suggests we could keep higher pressure for the second half of next week too unlike previous runs which showed the Atlantic breaking through bringing wind & rain. What a magnificent half term this would be if its correct  :clap:

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:



Background

So, first some context…. The UK winter is moderated by the Gulf Stream, warm ocean currents move north from the tropics and help prevent the UK from being as cold as somewhere like Moscow. The diagram below shows a picture of the ocean currents.

image.thumb.jpeg.08efb7872b53e333e1336df37aaa7a22.jpeg Warm air directed to the UK from Gulf stream

Now interestingly there is evidence to suggest this is slowing down which generally should mean a negative feedback in the northern hemisphere due to a decrease in heat transport. Just one problem… the strengthening of mid latitude highs and deepening of polar lows means the Eurasian continent has warmed substantially during the winter.

 


 

 

So, the moral of the story is.. our winters will progressively get worse? :cray:

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12 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I might be wrong but a SSW can actually change the current situation in the atmosphere and strengthen the upper winds in the polar vortex so we get mild SW winds for a  long time. I think that happened winter 2011/12

Still looks pretty mild in both GFS and ECM, anyway it's getting too late for any proper cold and the sun angle is high.

 

 

I looked it up and the record low for February in Orebro is actually marginally colder than for January, and for March only slightly warmer. Jan = -29.6, Feb = -30, Mar = -28. That data comes from SMHI, so a reliable source. Not true that it is too late.

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Looking like trend for high pressure over uk and just to east  southerly south easterly breeze we may go in to something colder later if high can push north  it might not show what you want snowy easterly I think trend is good get us in to  southerly south-east  Easterly..

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Worth noting what IF says (see Model Tweets thread) this morning; key period of model divergence starting 18th i.e this coming Sunday, and "Still a way to go before we can be more bullish on the outcomes after this weekend".

So it's not the best of practice to infer from the current model output that we'll likely be looking at next week day X or later for a colder flow returning... end of this coming week is the limit.

Could be a properly pleasant Friday and weekend beforehand for many, perhaps best to make the most of it if you can? Cue exciting model output gluing us to our screens :laugh:

Edited by Singularity
My keyboard is a twit
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Very strange chart ECM T+240 not far away from a good chart vortex looks as strong as it now to NW dubious. I think height rises to north east will come sooner than we think. 

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Both ECM and GFS are interested in MLB doesn’t necessarily mean this is certain but presently more likely, just past day 10 GFS 06Z has a 1947 vibe - started in a similar way.

04B781EB-5FB3-49E9-8FFC-F50D3C13AC21.thumb.png.235ab2e76b21cc616ac8a3706fc6feac.png8E0AA434-DAEC-481A-B93B-5E0D83FC95BE.thumb.png.b221ff6a4c5df83e125bc0d27cd201d5.png

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