Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

I figured from earlier Fyrirstaoa means "obstacle" what does Hryggur mean? 

"sorry" according to google translate

[Man With Beard]

Latest EC ensemble mean up to 1028mb Scandi High at D14, in sync with GEFS. Gets stronger after that.

[JeffC]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

+50C warm up? Global warming must be real  

Bit toasty survivable temps 80,000 foot up? Just wrap up warm just the oxygen & gamma rays and all that stuff that gets through the thin atmosphere. 

Things officially have got interesting, well modelled...

Aye well modelled indeed and looking at all the info it has come to pass...exciting thing to watch happen, but the downstream repercussions are the unknown. Unprecedented zonal wind reversal....all bets are off from my perspective.

As regards survivability, just need a spacesuit....

[Ice Day]

Just looking at the GEFS at 228 and as you would imagine they are all over the show, however there are some absolute crackers:

Easterly  Easterly  Northerly  

Not even sure what this is   

[Ice Day]

Actually, having a unscientific scan through the GEFS stamps, there are a lot of very cold NE/Easterlies showing up around the 300 hour mark, will be interesting to see the graph as I think the mean may trend down lower than recent runs.  The Control shows a cracking easterly as well, deep in FI, but it's showing it so would be rude not to share

 

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just looking at the GEFS at 228 and as you would imagine they are all over the show, however there are some absolute crackers:

Easterly  Easterly  Northerly  

Not even sure what this is   

GFS ens have been incessant if you are of a mild disposition. A continuation of some real great synoptics not precisely small in number either a new day dawns hopefully model output sees a new ‘dawn’ too.

[SMU]

try PTB 4. for the 2010 run...

[ITSY]

how About this for a mean! Some unbelievable runs in there. Still at T+never never land, but now that the SSW is actually underway and the long term EC and GEFS clusters are talking from the same hymn sheet, hopefully it spells deliverance...

 

[Daniel*]

Just now, ITSY said:

how About this for a mean! Some unbelievable runs in there. Still at T+never never land, but now that the SSW is actually underway and the long term EC and GEFS clusters are talking from the same hymn sheet, hopefully it spells deliverance...

 

That’s the best day 16 mean I have seen even ECM clusters shows tide turning past day 10 it may take more time to get there than preferable, hopefully not but I fail to see how we can avoid a cold wintry spell.

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

try PTB 4. for the 2010 run...

Here it is in full screen version.

 

This is what a solid Greenie high can deliver.  

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

how About this for a mean! Some unbelievable runs in there. Still at T+never never land, but now that the SSW is actually underway and the long term EC and GEFS clusters are talking from the same hymn sheet, hopefully it spells deliverance...

 

That is pretty incredible at 384 .  Maybe tomorrow is 'tide turning' day?  

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Here it is in full screen version.

 

This is what a solid Greenie high can deliver.  

Forget about approaching meteorological spring it will be like a mid winter freeze.. that’s actually incredible chart I have seen an omega high being signalled it’s faint for a few days now. 

[SLEETY]

Gfs a complete mess in fl again ,in the nearer time both models show high pressure building up from the SW,but it needs to be further NW if we are to  see a decent  Easterly out of it ?

Much more drama to come I think in the coming days until we know if this SSW is going to give us the holy grail or not .

[tinybill]

33 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs a complete mess in fl again ,in the nearer time both models show high pressure building up from the SW,but it needs to be further NW if we are to  see a decent  Easterly out of it ?

Much more drama to come I think in the coming days until we know if this SSW is going to give us the holy grail or not .

i just looked i cant see this fabel ssw coming not in fantasy world at the moment we can dream!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 minutes ago, tinybill said:

i just looked i cant see this fabel ssw coming not in fantasy world at the moment we can dream!!

What?

The SSW is taking place as I type in the real world. 

[Weather-history]

Its a long way out but you don't often see a mean pressure chart like that so far out

[That ECM]

T144 and some welcomed consistency. Not the same but at least on the same page. Maybe we are starting to see the way forward. T168 ecm with a different profile of the pv from its previous output  gives opportunities for heights to build to our ne.

Edited February 12, 2018 by That ECM

[Banbury]

55 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

What?

The SSW is taking place as I type in the real world. 

I think Tiny is saying he can’t see the SSW having any impact on the UK

[Banbury]

I think it’s a case of getting the HP over us and hoping it gets pulled off into a favourable position personally 

[SLEETY]

I think models still trying to work what’s going to happen,no consistency in their output in the long range,at least the earlier time frame is more consistent for once

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

I think it’s a case of getting the HP over us and hoping it gets pulled off into a favourable position personally 

Ala Gem. Not great fan of the model but something like this with high just a little further north. I agree with you and that's where the interest will be moving forward imo.

[mountain shadow]

We're no longer expecting a quick trop response though, we are looking towards the start of March which is outside model range.

 

[bluearmy]

To me, the lack of response from the modelling to drive and coherent response to the ssw until the latter part of week2 is quite clear. The gefs zonal mean for 60N shows the zonal flow in the trop doesn’t drop below average until around 24th. Clearly some members will do it earlier but note the sudden mean ridge build well north at this timescale. 

The ecm chart from Berlin beyond the initial drop in zonal flow to slight reversal (stays above 70N in the trop) shows westerly momentum above 55N fairly reasonable throughout and increasing later on. until we see the negative zonal anomolys getting to  60N (sustained and convincing) then any HLB is unlikely to be effective for us. 

We would be hoping to see these charts changing now that the ssw is underway as more members latch onto the change in momentum. Remember all ens are at lower res post day 10. (Where the eps drop). The gefs drop at day 8. 

[SLEETY]

Gfs ensembles  absolutely useless,wast of ram space, 20 c spread in some of them ,how can you work out what’s going to happen looking at that.

[Duane S.]

Stunning set of GEFS at the FI end.

Reflected here. Not often, if hardly ever, do you get a mean of 1030mb at the 16 day point in Reykjavik.