Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[MagicBat]

1 hour ago, ITSY said:

Me too! By way of note, BBC clearly following ECM solution...

You won't beat Spurs, I'm afraid. I really don't care that much, but your back line and keeper is criminal. Anyway back to the task in hand. The key change date for us is the 22nd February, yes it's been moving slowly further back. But the model are showing a more solid agreement even at this range for a cold period. 24th/25th looks more promising for snow even for the SE as the potential fronts find prominence on east wind.

Magic bat.

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, MagicBat said:

You won't beat Spurs, I'm afraid. I really don't care that much, but your back line and keeper is criminal. Anyway back to the task in hand. The key change date for us is the 22nd February, yes it's been moving slowly further back. But the model are showing a more solid agreement even at this range for a cold period. 24th/25th looks more promising for snow even for the SE as the potential fronts find prominence on east wind.

Magic bat.

Has it? Actually the contrary if anything - gone are the days only GFS were showing interest in deep FI today or should we say yesterday ECM gets the ball rolling at day 7, by day 10 we’re seemingly in a locked in cold spell IMO which makes me question whether you truly have viewed models lately? I don’t think ensembles backed this ‘progressiveness’, however further ahead from 10d I’m told the main cluster is distinctly wintry. The key dates is 17-20th IMO, models continuously toying with much colder conditions around this time, I notice GFS 18Z goes off on idea but just see it go back knowing it! There has never been any real solid agreement full stop and well you can’t really expect that with what’s undergoing in the atmosphere, I sense some are getting panicky no need more runs needed.

 

 

[Mucka]

GEM makes it

GFS makes it.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like it should be okay to me.

Happy days 

 

[Mucka]

What a difference a day makes.

GFS 00z today/yesterday

I wouldn't say GFS has handled this poorly - terribly would be a better a descriptor.

That said, there will be more changes yet - hopefully all for the better.

GEM/GFS 168 and again 216 below

Even from what appears to be a comparable starting position GFS manages to be the party pooper

Main thing is getting the Atlantic ridge in place though and as far as that goes each run has been a little better than the last.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2018 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

A great GEFS run this morning, there are several with -12c 850s or colder in the North sea heading our way.  

We have a mean of -6c 850s on the east coast which we haven't head for a good while, and very cold airmass over Europe too, -20c uppers in Scandy on a few

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Those 00z ensembles

Quite the spread towards the end

[Man With Beard]

Still got a 1030mb high and a mean easterly in the T300 plus bit of the GEFS

Long-termers in here (shall we call ourselves 'lifers'?) will know just how remarkable that is. GEFS is now consistently pulling this one out run after run.

Oh and a note for following 500mb charts - due to the nature of the "cold high" over Scandi in winter, 500mb charts can often look like a weak block there, when actually there's a strong high at the surface. 

Edited February 10, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

Those 00z ensembles

Quite the spread towards the end

If it wasn't for those 3/4 really warm ENS members that mean would be a few degrees colder, so yes it doesn't look amazing but that v cold cluster is growing from around the 17/18th and it just keeps dropping.  De-Bilt ENS could go really cold today on that side of the North sea.

[Mucka]

Typical, start to get GFS on board and ECM wants to go TU

[Sneachtastorm]

Oh Deary me. ECM has gone pear shaped if it's a winter wonderland you're after. 

[January Snowstorm]

The charts this morning are a worry from a cold perspective.

Blocking is certainly delayed by both ECM and GFS 

This is far from a done deal imo and while we wait the days get longer and the sun gets stronger. (I had a few cms of lying snow here yesterday and it was gone by 11am - not from lack of cold but powerful sunshine)

Of course in the meantime some impressive cold coming in off the Atlantic early next week. 

Edited February 10, 2018 by January Snowstorm

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The charts this morning are a worry from a cold perspective.

Blocking is certainly delayed by both ECM and GFS 

This is far from a done deal imo

T120 plus is as always JFF or not in the case of the ecm this morning. Let's see where it sits within its suite. But it's t168 plus where it goes"wrong" move the high a couple of hundred miles north and it would look very different for us. The ebbs and flows of output from run to run. Could get messy in here but I hope not, still much to be resolved.

Edited February 10, 2018 by That ECM

[snowblizzard]

7 hours ago, ITSY said:

Me too! By way of note, BBC clearly following ECM solution...

What you didn't mention was that Matt Taylor said there's only a small chance of this particular set-up!

Edited February 10, 2018 by snowblizzard

[MR EXTREMES]

It's taken the GFS about 2 days to catch on to the ECM evolution.

So as I suggested quick response from the stratosphere into troposphere.

Also ECM is the evolution king.

GFS ECM now on the same page.

168gfs same as last night's ecm.

Now that's what people mean by GFS playing catch up.

 

[Weather-history]

37 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

- not from lack of cold but powerful sunshine)

 

Interesting to here you description of solar output come June.....

Edited February 10, 2018 by Weather-history

[karlos1983]

For anyone that might be learning, I would just say that when we have operationals going one way then the other on the very next run, it should be taken with a pinch of salt, be it cold or mild especially atm. What we are trying to look for at the moment is a consistent signal. 

Anyway, The big 3 at +144, All 3 fairly similar, but to me the UKMO looks the pick of the bunch. The main PV lobe is held further back slightly than the GFS/ECM and the Atlantic ridge looks like it could get further north.

[MR EXTREMES]

And the gfs 192 is a good chart.

Icelandic block cold end to February looks very very likely.

[snowblind]

22 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

What you didn't mention was that Matt Taylor said there's only a small chance of this particular set-up!

Just watched it again. He doesn't say that.

He says there are hints with what's going on in the upper atmosphere.....

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Typical, start to get GFS on board and ECM wants to go TU

Exactly what I said would happen after the great ecm yesterday, these run to run jobs are crap and annoying, still I suppose the trend is there as long as the dates don’t keep getting put back. I may be wrong but I’m sure it was around the 15th area and now it’s around the 20th and I’m sure it will soon be around 28th but let’s see. Oh wait maybe let’s just have a very cold March instead 

[Duane S.]

I was hoping the ECM maybe could go all the way down to T-0 consistently showing blocking in all the right places. Then I woke up. Literally.

Not a blinder this morning from the ECM op, but in all reality a smooth transition from current state to post SSW was never ever on the cards. The models struggle at the best of times, and when you consider how unusual a situation this if for them, and it is, it is hardly any wonder we are getting all sorts of forecasted outcomes.

Like it or not, that’s just how it is, nothing will be even close to nailed down for a good few days yet. Expect further disappointing outputs and further winter wonderland outputs to appear, disappear and reappear from model to model, suite to suite, day to day.

I just can’t wait to get the wind reversal underway later on Sunday. Give it a day or so and then we can see what the charts look like, as the actual data starts getting fed in.

[Chesil View]

34 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

What you didn't mention was that Matt Taylor said there's only a small chance of this particular set-up!

You are quoting from the Thursday update Snowblizzard. In the Friday update Matt does not say that. 

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Exactly what I said would happen after the great ecm yesterday, these run to run jobs are crap and annoying, still I suppose the trend is there as long as the dates don’t keep getting put back. I may be wrong but I’m sure it was around the 15th area and now it’s around the 20th and I’m sure it will soon be around 28th but let’s see. Oh wait maybe let’s just have a very cold March instead 

No, it was never the 15th. It has always been around the 18th/19th. The SSW only kicks off on the 12th, give it a chance.

[markw2680]

Just now, s4lancia said:

No, it was never the 15th. It has always been around the 18th/19th. The SSW only kicks off on the 12th, give it a chance.

Hope so we shall see, supose your right though a few days would give us better insight 

[Team Jo]

Suspect it’s going to be busy in here today, so because I’m up making coco pops pre 8am with the kids, just some gentle reminders before I spend my day moving posts and asking why and being PM’d:

•there’s a thread for bbc discussion. Please use it. I’ve said numerous times before that the bbc don’t ‘sign off’ the weather. It’s another opinion, just because they put it on tv, doesn’t mean it’s a done deal 

•SSW is in v early stages so there will be output variation run to run. As a few have mentioned, it’s the overall signal to be looking for, a theme. Not the best or worst charts each suite.

•There’s also a thread for met office commentary

• Please try and keep it on topic. Posts that start ‘I know this is off topic, but’ will be sent to the great virtual incinerator in the sky- if you can’t post it in the right place, I won’t be moving it to the right place. It’s just going to disappear.

• Sarcasm and digs and general unpleasantness won’t be tolerated. If you don’t like something, report it. If you strongly disagree with something or someone, then don’t make it personal. Debate is healthy and good. Shooting people down with misery or belittling with ramping isn’t. If you have an opposing view, use data and evidence to make your case. Given this discussion by its very nature, it’s underpinned by science and data, not gut feelings, tingly toes, spidey senses, weather stones, seaweed, the daily express or any other voodoo. If you’re into that kind of thing  I’m sure I can find you or even make you a wizardry thread. Just not in here.

• just again, be nice to each other. It’s the weather, it’s a hobby. Nobody in here is responsible for what it’s doing. Lots of people take time out of their day to post good analysis, please respect that.

•snowing in my back yard stuff belongs in the regionals.

<Deep breath> aaaaaaaaand GO. 

 

 

[Ice Day]

Another day on the rollercoaster coming up.  GFS improved and the GEFS ensembles and UKMO are both very good, then the ECM decides to bring us all back down to earth. Its ensembles show that the Op wasn't even a mild outliier

As Winterof so correctly stated above, we are going to have to accept this volatility for the next few days until some sort of model consensus is reached.  If you're of faint heart, you may want to have a few days off.  Me.....I love this, bring it on.