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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Yup, high pressure over Outer Hebrides.

Also pressure falling over the Azores region, which is always a good sign in winter!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

remember though before we have seen mega easterlies at that time frame,that never verify as they hit the more reliable time frame

also why has ecm been all over the place this winter it had mild sw winds over UK just two days ago nothing like gfs, now look at what it shows

dreadful performance 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps and spreads are impressively cold by day 10 and moreso thereafter. Omega block establishing to our north (Iceland) and the stronger push against it coming from the east .

i hope you all jumped on board yesterday ............

JFF, but the eps control run is crazy from days 12 to 15 (-12/-13C 850s widely across the UK).

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

That’s a nice birthday present to wake upto thanks ecm looks awesome fair doos snow for mist you’d have to say low heights to the south -12 widely in a gale off the North Sea convection writen all over it I’d say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In typical model style the original grinch model the ECM now picks up the baton and doesn’t drop it!

Its quite a clean evolution with the trigger shortwave.

The GFS takes that shortwave more se and then you need to wait for the next one to back the cold west.

The ECM ensembles have improved still further which is good news.

I think given the overall pattern if you get the favourable shortwave then even the UK with its terrible luck couldn’t miss the deeper cold. :cold-emoji:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean at T+240 is special but by the end it's absolutely magnificent!!..potential is HUGE for a memorable cold spell!!:shok::cold-emoji::D

21_240_850tmp.png

21_384_850tmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, c00ps said:

The definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting the same result. A bit like predicting the worst winter weather in a generation/living memory and it not materialising.

Nice runs but again a long way off. Lots of evolution to come. Moderating expectation would be good to avoid big disappointment but promising it is.

Indeed. - the fi charts never quite make it to the near term.......  but then they very rarely come with ens means like we currently see .......

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
5 minutes ago, c00ps said:

The definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting the same result. A bit like predicting the worst winter weather in a generation/living memory and it not materialising.

Nice runs but again a long way off. Lots of evolution to come. Moderating expectation would be good to avoid big disappointment but promising it is.

Excellent models this morning - outstanding really. A rather cautious and slightly underwhelming overnight MetO update, mind - although to be fair, I only say that because of the quality of this morning’s model output in comparison. Wouldn’t expect them to put their head above the parapet too much but all has the look and feel of 10days+ at least about it. As do the models. Something of a pivotal week ahead then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In typical model style the original grinch model the ECM now picks up the baton and doesn’t drop it!

Its quite a clean evolution with the trigger shortwave.

The GFS takes that shortwave more se and then you need to wait for the next one to back the cold west.

The ECM ensembles have improved still further which is good news.

I think given the overall pattern if you get the favourable shortwave then even the UK with its terrible luck couldn’t miss the deeper cold. :cold-emoji:

 

My worry is the high doesn’t get far enough north and we end up stuck under a U.K. based high, while the cold goes to Central/SE Europe instead. 

Seen it numerous times before with this type of scenario, we get dreamy charts and then around T120-144 a shortwave appears in the GIN corridor, the northern arm of the jet is stronger than expected and we end up in no mans land, followed by a gradual sinking of the high into Europe.

Usually in the above scenario, we get one of the main models warning of this around T144 - usually the UKMO model.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

My worry is the high doesn’t get far enough north and we end up stuck under a U.K. based high, while the cold goes to Central/SE Europe instead. 

Seen it numerous times before with this type of scenario, we get dreamy charts and then around T120-144 a shortwave appears in the GIN corridor, the northern arm of the jet is stronger than expected and we end up in no mans land, followed by a gradual sinking of the high into Europe.

Usually in the above scenario, we get one of the main models warning of this around T144 - usually the UKMO model.

I understand your concerns.  I think though that’s a less likely scenario this time because of the SSW and the trend is to take the blocking further nw with time.

This means the deeper cold should be pulled further north and with it some lower heights.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I understand your concerns.  I think though that’s a less likely scenario this time because of the SSW and the trend is to take the blocking further nw with time.

This means the deeper cold should be pulled further north and with it some lower heights.

 

 

South nick ?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

South nick ?

Several models show the deepest cold going into Central Europe below the HP, so maybe he means that being further North should the HP move North a little 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

We’ve had Paul Hudson and Liam Dutton both suggest recently that the 06z/18z GFS runs are not the best runs (described as “intermediate” runs), so the fact that the latest GFS 00z run is ‘good for cold lovers’ is excellent news (as presumably the 00z/12z are held in better regard).

Half expecting the 06z to be not as good this morning, but then improved on the 12’s. 

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

South nick ?

He was responding to cold potentially going into france further south if the high sits over us..hence Pulled north as the high pulls north

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

South nick ?

Eh! What do you mean?

The block isn’t likely to sink and so as that edges further nw the core of the cold shouldn’t be freezing the fish in the Med! 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

All the charts I have been watching have indicated that the 21st to 23rd February is likely to be the start of any swing to colder conditions following the SSW.  However, there is still some disagreement about the way things will pan out as these +216h 850hpa temp anomaly charts imply:

ECM       image.thumb.gif.032bda12aa20bd18258adb8cb6d9a7cb.gif     Is now similar to....

GEM       image.thumb.png.2c5ac77c9a334b0d1b61a94552b0eec7.png    But quite different from......

GFS.       image.thumb.png.a6a3ba7234969a3fe45b6e0a70eeabd4.png 

With respect to the placement of the coldest uppers,  ECM and GEM favour Northern Europe and the U.K., but GFS says central and Southern Europe only at this date.  I think it will take a few more days before there is any certainty about the extent and duration of any cold conditions brought about by the recent stratospheric turmoil.   Could still go either way, I feel, although the chances of a memorable cold spell are increasing daily now.

 

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Eh! What do you mean?

The block isn’t likely to sink and so as that edges further nw the core of the cold shouldn’t be freezing the fish in the Med! 

Get what  you mean 

not surprisingly folk are seeing the half full glass at the moment but from where I’m sitting it’s positively overflowing - being greedy would prefer to be here a month ago but hey ho ....

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

Getting a Uk high to move north and trigger a cold spell is exceptionally rare ? When did this lady happen I am struggling to think of an occasion.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Just spent the last hour catching up on the overnight runs with my eyes out on forks, unbelievable set, especially the ECM which is an absolute doozy of a run.  However, for balance, it should be noted that it is a considerable cold outlier on days 9-10

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

That said, it produces a stunning day 10 mean.  Not only that, compare the ECM day 10 mean to the GEFS, they're almost identical

ECM EDH1-240.GIF?13-12 GEFS gensnh-21-1-240.png

Beyond that and the GEFS means just look stunning

Day 11 gensnh-21-1-264.png Day 13 gensnh-21-1-312.png Day 15 gensnh-21-1-360.png

I would urge members to go to the GEFS stamps for 384 and just roll through them.  Again, you would normally never entertain anything at that range but the consistency of Greenie/Iceland highs is remarkable at that range.

OK, here's my little ramp for the day.  Having been a member of this great community for almost 10 years, in that time I have never seen such good synoptics for a severe and protracted cold spell.  Pretty much every run shows cold getting in somehow, it's just a case of how long it takes to get here.  It also appears a good bet that once the cold is in we could have have 2-3 weeks to enjoy it (and fits with Met Office updates)

We all know it could go wrong, it normally does, but we could finally be on the cusp of getting our just desserts.  As Bluearmy stated earlier, it's time to get on board.

image.jpeg.ab3304e0220bb04c00217718165e7aec.jpeg

 

Edited by Ice Day
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