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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

ECM delivers the goods at 192 full on easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM not to the standard of GEFS P8 - bin it. 

ECH1-192.GIF?13-12gensnh-8-1-192.png

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

The ukmo, gfs and ecm are all on a similar page at t 168. The difference is the placing of the high. Ukmo and ecm have it slightly further north and as such drags the cold in quicker than the gfs. Gfs does get there tho. What we are not viewing at t168 plus is output that has little resemblance between say ecm and gfs as we were a few days ago. Depending on the run and which one places the high more favourable will be the one most like. The key is that the trend is to move the high north and that has been the trend on all 3.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ecm spreads yesterday morning led us to the 12z op

the ones here from yesterday evening led onto the current op (as @nick sussex noted yesterday evening

i wonder if the last couple of frames will follow with the blocking signal spreading to Iceland 

tempresult_bgw1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Dear forum members,

For the hardship caused to many of you over the weekend period by my, what I can only describe as, schoolboy efforts: I would like to offer the below as a means of apology... I hope you will see it to yourselves that I was having a bit of an off spell, having been out on an all night bender on Friday night with the GFS 18z. I believe I have learnt the error of my ways and hope we can continue on, as we left off, before this whole sorry debacle.

Yours,

The ECM

E213E4F1-6060-4FB4-90F1-A59E8C85E1DC.thumb.png.d364f1ffa457f9467f0b2a06855a3fa8.png

45FDA811-970D-4ACE-887D-B4872F36AFD0.thumb.png.65f818b4a0125ce10afd9efd67fab2cb.png

1F3D404E-A6F9-448F-92E7-59908FC93AA5.thumb.png.2c3aabf2ec50b88c6279fca7dfd0678e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

JFF but look what could happen if the high decides to play ball. 

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

S4lancia, that's funny, not many things make me laugh at 6.50 in the morning but that ECM apology did.

Great charts this morning with lots of cross model agreement, almost makes up for the fact its raining outside instead of the promised snow!

Andy

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Absolute filth 

IMG_0167.PNG

Oh that’s naughty, stop that! Too early for such arousal!

I knew it was a good idea to take time away from the models for a few days 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Here is what GEM has to say.

 

gemeu-0-240.png

gemeu-1-240.png

gemeu-9-240.png

trudeau_liberals_20161021-1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Yep not quite as impressive as other examples provided but still a huge punch. 

2EDD57E7-6902-4384-BA6B-B3BF5469A3D4.thumb.png.8a2fde2477070528e967c2d948a7df0c.pngE66B833E-210D-445D-A5FB-E1CFE0D97970.thumb.png.242b32bb890e0906ccf12c3ea7c55021.png

1 Jan 1979 too had some very cold uppers -16C uppers for early winter that really is quite something.

5965D83B-5757-4450-A0AD-8ED0AD1B66FE.thumb.png.85524b854c7968849f10aaa53bc14783.pngCEE18201-0311-450A-9C86-915A760CE53C.thumb.png.a031d73228087c2e84bb198019ea6281.png

The following month too had -16C uppers, funny that two examples of it in one winter and while we have had a long barren stretch perhaps indicative of less cold available nowadays - thanks to warming arctic.

CE381EA1-09DF-4CEC-8660-DA5D6CA2E2A5.thumb.png.80e4d16d9ed7eded17f39218b2925750.png44A315DD-425B-42FA-BEEA-F490D70EFF1B.thumb.png.67245674fe8df79bfe381a40b5045257.png

Doimg some digging there were also two examples in infamous winter of 1947 within four days of another reaching south east.... 

7D23371D-BFB0-4E35-AF18-4447C94E31EA.thumb.png.c14eec3bdfcc5c697f5a7c515aa694f7.png6E303737-1136-4F8A-8792-6D5181235FBF.thumb.png.adc38138ae4d2fd1fc026965d55ca790.png

31FB01D4-1A20-49E1-B4CC-8EA68408440F.thumb.png.935aeb1266ca7ef89b67729da4209751.pngF7533DEC-9F59-4049-8A5D-3308EE2B7559.thumb.png.87c51586df31ae43fd8053afac036066.png

Not sure how the UK suffers from a warming Arctic yet the US can still rack up record cold in what seems to be most years recently!

Great overnight runs. Interesting to see whether London hits the 11c forecast on BBC weather after the main news last night. Was surprised to see them put up a forecast for a week ahead at a time  when the models are subject to such volatility.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Now that's what I'm talking about!!..welcome back on-board Ecm!:cold::D?????

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240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

AND  BIG DEEP BREATHS ?. I kept saying to myself don't look , don't look getting in panic thinking please don't go titts up . And I finally convinced myself to look and BOOM . What a set of mornings runs ?. . 

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Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

AND A BIG DEEP BREATHS ?. I kept saying to myself don't look , don't look getting in panic thinking please don't go titts up . And I finally convinced myself to look and BOOM . What a set of mornings runs ?. . 

IMG_1436.PNG

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I'm so delighted the Ecm didn't go teits up again, it's a great run towards the end and in line with how last nights Ecm  12z ensemble mean ended..looking forward to posting many more mouth watering charts in the hours / days ahead!:D:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway

I say! Those posted charts are pure adult material. I nearly choked on coco pops. Ecm is very good at handling medium range but t+240 is fi.  hopefully it's the result of the saw, and is a trend in the models for latter cross model consistency! Realistically however? Likely to water down imo.  But forget the science.. I'll take those charts in an instant!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm so delighted the Ecm didn't go teits up again, it's a great run towards the end and in line with how last nights Ecm  12z ensemble mean ended..looking forward to posting many more mouth watering charts in the hours / days ahead!:D:cold-emoji:

What did @TEITS have to do with it :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
On 2/11/2018 at 10:33, Day 10 said:

Surely this:

gfsnh-10-66.thumb.png.129a270a07134ee110d008d552e3d3ca.png

and then this:

gfsnh-10-144.thumb.png.dc865217d50b339f83b62a0942edbbc6.png

would not equate to this:

ECMAVGNH00_240_1.thumb.png.2892dc184932a023ba46bfd3a4634db0.png

Changed your tune ECM, Arh don't worry knowbody noticed honest... :whistling:

Surely this:

gfsnh-10-36.thumb.png.ef74490c7261b7ddfbae8a20d755499b.png

and this:

gfsnh-10-102.thumb.png.dd4651fdfee144f36d565d4518c43e5e.png

can/would equate to this:

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.1c6a1c768c2e8ed5d034821d2f921c5b.png

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