Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM and GFS have converged tonight on a scenario whereby we see a UK block...Might not be the final outcome for this specific timeframe but that's what is being shown by the ops tonight

E'ly down across France and Spain. 

I suspect where we go after this period will be where the interest lies as things currently stand.

 

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And yet we are all avidly watching the 18z unfold, can't be such a poor model then!

To be fair, we watch the NAVGEM roll out at times too..

[Allseasons-Si]

Forgot to post this a few days ago

blue line ecm.red line gfs,now who do we trust

 

[TomDav]

lovely retrogression

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

To be fair, we watch the NAVGEM roll out at times too..

I don't ......anyway, much better trends today, it looks like the strong background signals are starting to show themselves in the mid range output..night all

[Cheshire Freeze]

Now THIS is what we want to be seeing-

That cold air to the NE should be spun towards the UK with the retrograde pattern

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh my!

giddy ant

nothing wrong with these charts to go to bed with,not literately

Canadian pv totalled,bye! bye!

Edited February 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

Well as FI's go, we'd probably all take this.  Clearly just for fun, however all runs are ending with chaotic NH profiles, so as long as this continues we should eventually catch a break.  Looking forward to the ensembles again in a short while.

 

[Mucka]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

To be fair, we watch the NAVGEM roll out at times too..

Filthy behaviour.

 

At least we should know how quickly blocking can draw in cold from the East by how far West and strong the Atlantic ridge is in earlier time frames.

Take T96 GFS 18z. Look for sharper dig of the the trough SE over the UK and energy coming off the Eastern seaboard to be held back a little which  prevents suppression of sharper height rises NE.

Also formation of shortwave low over Scandinavia between 120 and 144 would help sharpen and amplify the pattern greatly as it would drop South down the Eastern flank of any ridge.

 

[Derecho]

It took a while but finally the polar vortex has been breached. Ver mild air ushers to Greenland. Cold air cascades towards Europe.

After 5 winters generally dominated by westerlies this I believe would be a key part of swinging the see saw. Takes a while but as Marcus says, this would be worth the wait.

[ITSY]

The bbc are behind the initial uk block setup, so I’d be inclined now to focus on that as the first of the necessary building blocks. Where it goes after us and at what speed will determine if and when we get the very cold weather. Got to be said that the 18Z has read that script and acts just as we would hope, so probably the blueprint for what to look for herein. 

[ICE COLD]

Another good run from the GFS but it could of been so much better look how close we got to these pretty pink colours ? . Now that is cold . Or am I being greedy ?

Edited February 12, 2018 by ICE COLD

[SMU]

Mean is awsome @192-

Look at the control all that energy piling upwards towards Greenland !

 

[Ice Day]

The Control out to 228 is looking fantastic, the uppers are something else with -12's across much of the east

 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Another good run from the GFS but it could of been so much better look how close we got to these pretty pink colours ? . Now that is cold . Or am I being greedy ?

All it takes is a tad more latitude and SE England would have gone in freezer. 100 miles further north can make a major difference as to weather you see.

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The Control out to 228 is looking fantastic, the uppers are something else with -12's across much of the east

 

Indeed it’s a beauty 

[Ice Day]

Then we are presented with this at 240. This would likely be a nationwide snow event (actually, maybe England and Wales, Scotland likely to be cold and dry)

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by Ice Day

[SMU]

I see you -12 & raise you to -16

[Weathizard]

Hmmm... 18z mean not as convincing as the 12z

 

Edit: Still some stonkers in there, but many with increased prominence of the trough to our west

Edited February 12, 2018 by Weathizard

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I see you -12 & raise you to -16

Are there any winters in modern history (post 80's) where we've seen -16 over the UK? 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Hmmm... 18z mean not as convincing as the 12z

Still very good I’d say more emphasis to north-east instead of north and north west.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Daniel*

[Ice Day]

The short ensembles are looking good at the end, with a downwards trend at days 7 and 8 with much reduced scatter. 

[Daniel*]

Day 10 between GFS and ECM pretty close I feel we’ll see ridge get more latitude thus easterlies will come in quicker than see on both of these models. 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Are there any winters in modern history (post 80's) where we've seen -16 over the UK? 

 No

2005 had -14c clipping kent

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles decent but not exclusively cold by any means

GFS look better overall.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Mucka